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Model output discussion - late November


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1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Personally the main problem was the overdoing of the arctic high. ICON did it too but today they've scaled it back a lot.

But that Russian seems to have appeared out of nowhere so that's interesting but is it friend or foe?

Are you suggesting the Russian High might move over towards Scandanavia?

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Using the 8th December marker we have anything but a simple flat flow across the Atlantic, and so while the general westerly dominance is going to bed in it is not looking like the residual heights ho

There's a lot of opinion being expressed in here about the performance of various models. I think if you are to criticise a model it is only fair your opinion is backed by facts to justify your remark

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........  

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perhaps a proper potent northerly lining up at the end of the ECM,but a poor performance from the model past 24 hours ,it’s as flat as a pancake compared to this time yesterday.Gfs has trumped it this time.

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To be honest frosty and dry is an improvement on the rain we've had all autumn and perhaps it's best to start small and take it from there. It's all a little bit too early in the game I feel....

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7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another enjoyable ECM run with any zonal flat flow quickly amplifying again towards Greenland - I would imagine a below average start to December ?

We've been here many times before with D10 ECM charts. 

I think we're going to have to be patient this coming month and wait to see what happens wrt the strat. 

To me, the further outlook just looks like a ridge, trough scenario with N Atlantic heights not able to establish a proper foothold before being overrun by the jet once more.

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 Gfs Ecm and Gem models are mostly in agreement with the track of Saturday's low and have been consistent with this the last few updates..

Here's the Gfs.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_120.thumb.jpg.920f961dfc42e5dbe6bc08d9f8da1b71.jpg

1199498706_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_132(1).thumb.jpg.fb71dce608ac20a35fc91dfa8a6a08db.jpg

Ukmo.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_120.thumb.jpg.5417e7a976bafff10ecd8e26d08872d3.jpg

Gem keeps this a way to the south with no rain at all. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_114.thumb.jpg.3c0b5687174def9bc0d494d4411dd5a6.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_126.thumb.jpg.9cffa64ce3bc64e30ceaaee66b4c4e16.jpg

Finally a blended average output of the Gfs, Ecm and Gem again shows a very similar picture, the system heading southeast into France with a chance of rain for the far southwest for a short time Saturday morning. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_126.thumb.jpg.e156ffc6d5c6004ab73a9c6543cb7b7c.jpg

This isn't set in stone ofcourse as it's still a few days away and it could change but this low being trended north into southern uk bringing a wet day with hill snow seems very unlikely atm so a mostly dry day for Many areas the most likely outcome with that low perhaps brushing the far southwest briefly.  

Edited by jordan smith
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We've been here many times before with D10 ECM charts. 

I think we're going to have to be patient this coming month and wait to see what happens wrt the strat. 

To me, the further outlook just looks like a ridge, trough scenario with N Atlantic heights not able to establish a proper foothold before being overrun by the jet once more.

That I agree with  height rises  cold north Westerlies  then flat and repeat   for me that wouldn't be too bad   for others  it may be a bit disappointing   

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19 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Are you suggesting the Russian High might move over towards Scandanavia?

They can do that but I was more suggesting the input of polar heights and leading to potentially more Strat warmings. 

But like November this can not always work in our favour trop speaking as it can just pull warm air from the med,

Edited by Snowman.
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ECM 240 looks to be draining energy from the canadian PV to the siberian one. Wonder if that is due to the different stance it has on the strat than the GFS? Would have loved to seen it past D10 just purely for curiousity.

Edited by Snowman.
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've been here many times before with D10 ECM charts. 

I think we're going to have to be patient this coming month and wait to see what happens wrt the strat. 

To me, the further outlook just looks like a ridge, trough scenario with N Atlantic heights not able to establish a proper foothold before being overrun by the jet once more.

Let's not worry to much about how an FI cold spell my break down early or fail before we even know it exists.

GEFS ensembles look like after the initial HP toppling over it doesn't result in this then leading to a strong painful Azores that we often see at this time of year. Instead it would probably allow for a large range of scenarios with the possibility of further HP to the West and North

Will be a good few days or maybe even more though at the very earliest until I think we will see the next really interesting exciting runs that have a bit of plausibility in them. 

So much to play for and winters not even started yet.. I think we'd all have taken this! 

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've been here many times before with D10 ECM charts. 

I think we're going to have to be patient this coming month and wait to see what happens wrt the strat. 

To me, the further outlook just looks like a ridge, trough scenario with N Atlantic heights not able to establish a proper foothold before being overrun by the jet once more.

2-3 day topplers is better than nothing if it's narnia your looking well that's always going to be highly unlikely in December.

Oct Nov temperatures below norm and if Dec can to I'll take that right now.

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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Another enjoyable ECM run with any zonal flat flow quickly amplifying again towards Greenland - I would imagine a below average start to December ?

Thought we were in the game in the next 7 days Steve ??

Edited by swfc
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25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We've been here many times before with D10 ECM charts. 

I think we're going to have to be patient this coming month and wait to see what happens wrt the strat. 

To me, the further outlook just looks like a ridge, trough scenario with N Atlantic heights not able to establish a proper foothold before being overrun by the jet once more.

I dont think you should be unduly dismissive - if we are interested / looling for cold then surely the GFS & ECM showing the same evolution to cold is a good thing...

Upstream ECM looks very much like PTB 13 ;)

154052ED-CE6C-4260-B466-826BBCBE725C.thumb.jpeg.cc588516b36f2ad7be4a2c5c29a925cc.jpegBE984EE7-F14C-4B06-AEB9-63AE14E85A67.thumb.png.1f09643af7ce9d6f01a8b7fe59389d2d.png

 

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Thought we were in the game in the next 7 days Steve ??

The middle bit yes of course cold for 4-5 days however that swing to a smidge of positive tilt on the high will of course restrict the cold flow at day 8-9 ?

Going to phase 2 after Ph1 wasn't expected - just an option on the table however the models didnt produce any undercutting -

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

I dont think you should be unduly dismissive - if we are interested / looling for cold then surely the GFS & ECM showing the same evolution to cold is a good thing...

Upstream ECM looks very much like PTB 13 ;)

154052ED-CE6C-4260-B466-826BBCBE725C.thumb.jpeg.cc588516b36f2ad7be4a2c5c29a925cc.jpegBE984EE7-F14C-4B06-AEB9-63AE14E85A67.thumb.png.1f09643af7ce9d6f01a8b7fe59389d2d.png

 

I'm looking for cold as much as the next person, but I will also call a spade a spade. Snow potential on charts in winter at days 9&10 isn't hard to find, especially when you trawl the ensembles. Getting those same charts to 48 hrs out is a lot harder.

Let's look at the output pragmatically- we look to be losing the -AO and the amplitude of ridging that we have had through much of this month. We are staring at a zonal spell in some form or another in the next couple of weeks. Worst case scenario is we see heights rise across Europe and we have to endure mild SW'ly and W'ly flow. Best case scenario is we see the jet angle NW-SE and we get some cold polar air in the flow. 

What happens after that will depend on any strat warming IMO. 

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52 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Personally the main problem was the overdoing of the arctic high. ICON did it too but today they've scaled it back a lot.

But that Russian seems to have appeared out of nowhere so that's interesting but is it friend or foe?

Friend or Foe...

That Russian high seems to flex it`s arms every year and if it is helped from other ridges then a friend I think. If it is the only ridge then I`m pretty sure Greece gets the pasting of what snow chasers want.

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm looking for cold as much as the next person, but I will also call a spade a spade. Snow potential on charts in winter at days 9&10 isn't hard to find, especially when you trawl the ensembles. Getting those same charts to 48 hrs out is a lot harder.

Let's look at the output pragmatically- we look to be losing the -AO and the amplitude of ridging that we have had through much of this month. We are staring at a zonal spell in some form or another in the next couple of weeks. Worst case scenario is we see heights rise across Europe and we have to endure mild SW'ly and W'ly flow. Best case scenario is we see the jet angle NW-SE and we get some cold polar air in the flow. 

What happens after that will depend on any strat warming IMO. 

It depends how far out you're looking - if it's the next 14 days or so then yes absolutely.. but beyond that - well just because the AO and NAO are trending positive doesn't mean they'll remain in that state throughout the rest of the winter. 

The start we're seeing and the output the models are currently producing is a contrast to what we usually experience and expect at this time of year. Potential is at large supply in my opinion. I respect yours too but I'm just saying I have a feeling you may be a tad surprised ?

I'm liking the uppers shown in the charts for next weekend - it's a shame the whole event has been slightly toned down today but still a very cold and chilly start to the season.

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The latter part of the ecm det run indicated a very strong thermal gradient across the Atlantic suppressing the subtropical high

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5460800.thumb.png.5799be5b3397123bec3c39fb102d53f8.png

And the ext mean anomaly rather emphasizes this. Not unlike the GEFS it transfers the main tpv to northern Canada with the extension into northern Russia and another trough aligned southeast, whilst the Alaskan ridge extends towards Siberia, All of this resulting in the strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5871200.thumb.png.386bafc72e41eb3c7bb2368b756af9dc.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5871200.thumb.png.6c41fcaf8c7a711d73be22629894ccab.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5871200.thumb.png.07b48093e036d95ae21ba49bd331a94a.png

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