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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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At least it looks like turning dry for a while,which is a good thing.

And some frosty weather,with it,if no deep cold going to arrive,frost is better than nothing,at least the ground will look white?

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GFS shows the cold uppers fading away by D7.

image.thumb.png.2e3778c682f46e6270410a3d5b1c8495.png

Still the ECM to come but overall today's output is a tad lacklustre to yesterdays - but not overly so; we still have coolish uppers which should give us frosts and some nice cold dry days. Would still just about be cold enough for wintry precipitation should any occur but that looks unlikely at this stage

Still only Monday too so you never know, we may yet see more twists and turns with the HP shunted a tad further W/NW again. 

Additionally - I'll be keeping a tiny lose eye on GFS and GEFS FI post-toppler rolling in..

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According to the gfs by midday Friday, as the pattern develops, the mid atlantic trough becomes negatively tilted and a wave forms on the surface front which really comes to nothing as it tracks south east

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5028800.thumb.png.4f58d53479bf4dc5e02e2bf190867ac0.png96.thumb.png.742998accbff7e5c61adaac9b5222e1f.png120.thumb.png.edf08a1e29de1fc873f8638d310a4047.png

But with the ridge sliding south east a welcome couple of dry days, apart from maybe from odd shower in the north of Scotland and perhaps some rain just impinging the south coast, albeit cold with quite a severe ground frost in many areas

gfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_min6-5093600.thumb.png.58ebe3e4e8d791534460bae6d71f08df.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_min6-5180000.thumb.png.bedf0d88cd02934966e8d9934cdf5af5.png

Edited by knocker
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12z GFS at least it's dry??mr PV looks like making his hand shown

Edited by swfc
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12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Plenty of twists & turns to come, yet??

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Aye, a chart more associated with Dec, unlike Nov, me summer shoes maybe coming back out, much better than a lot of days this autumn where we've been stuck under a trough at below avg temps

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The gfs 5- 10 NH pattern is distinctly odd with the Russian ridge displacing the vortex and a 180kt jet winging around the atlantic high.

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5547200.thumb.png.ed90aae554c655f3785ea5993e20ff17.png

Edited by knocker

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icon is a beaut and gfs ukmo and gem all knife edge stuff but no doubt some pretty beefy cold snaps/spell.

2036638484_UW144-21(4).thumb.gif.3e7d05216efc4f1502609a03f8ac88c6.gifgfs-0-144.thumb.png.d04d70540edca20b71b9ebb3c9d1097c.png271885654_gem-0-144(1).thumb.png.ab19bc13e6a9e1b7d713d8860ccd4b5f.png

gfs got some more cold for us in fi.

gfs-0-324.thumb.png.536e5f7079cd2ace55e7d857f0ae1607.png

 

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, a chart more associated with Dec, unlike Nov, me summer shoes maybe coming back out, much better than a lot of days this autumn where we've been stuck under a trough at below avg temps

You won’t be wearing your summer shoes for very long , might get a tad cold with what follows on ?

B5329A3A-7EAE-4B26-A49B-2F0A159F750C.png

1FD61030-F229-44FC-8EA6-17E2348B7FC7.png

0673DA6D-3A66-4E56-8461-CDE7DCE36C3D.png

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34 minutes ago, swfc said:

12z GFS at least it's dry??mr PV looks like making his hand shown

Drier for a few days at the weekend and early next week but it doesn't currently look like lasting very long before we may see unsettled conditions once again for most areas. Ofcourse the time frame in question is still 5-7 days away. 

Edited by jordan smith
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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Dry for a few days at the weekend and early next week but it doesn't look like lasting very long before we may see unsettled conditions once again for most areas. 

 

but at least looks zonal, a strong west to east average flow shouldn't be as wet as slow moving troughs over us, and can have sunshine too at times behind fast moving systems

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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gem-0-210.thumb.png.9710ac9d392f83ac5fa8351a48496823.png

gem pulling heights out west,

see how the two air masses are fighting for dominance another cold attack looks likely to win out if this is the correct evolution.

gefs is an example to of how these deep sliding lows can dominate.

gens-0-1-162.thumb.png.91c6eb4a01cba6f3da079b0c5e3fc140.png

although a bit further north would help but lots of time yet to change either way interesting though.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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It's nice to see that, even out at T+384, the PFJ is still far from being flat...?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

So, at least there's that consistency to consider.

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45 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You won’t be wearing your summer shoes for very long , might get a tad cold with what follows on ?

B5329A3A-7EAE-4B26-A49B-2F0A159F750C.png

1FD61030-F229-44FC-8EA6-17E2348B7FC7.png

0673DA6D-3A66-4E56-8461-CDE7DCE36C3D.png

Agreed.

Although it looks like this first event will be a toppler we will at least have a brief drier period under the high pressure and it is as that high pressure is displaced SW that we may see another attempt at an Atlantic ridge, perhaps as soon as early 2nd week of Dec.

Naturally signals are mixed that far out and it may well be that if it happens it will be another toppler but rather that than flat zonal and it maintains interest in the output as we head deeper into December.

 

graphe3_1000_265_88___.gif

Edited by Mucka
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^^

Yes, GEFS look to be keeping the cold locked in until wed 4th so a nice little spell - might be a few 'white' mornings , alas not from snow but for me personally much more preferable to do the christmas shopping etc with a scarf and gloves rather then a rain mac with the wind and rain lashing down.

image.thumb.png.feafa26bdc5d1cad569ce09757fb1fd2.png

So, some crisp cold weather over the weekend and up to mid week before the Atlantic air begins to move in- from my POV the hope is we see some potent PM attacks , down stream might profile might help us out in this respect by encouraging the collapsing high to get pulled west.Tthat is an aspiration rather than a forecast at this stage.

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overall very poor output tonight and i think shows how once again were on the milder side of the high that yesterday looked so promising to delivering something special. i think this will be the story of winter. eastern europe again for cold n snow whilst we rely on two days worth of mediocore north westerlies. why just why is it so difficult for highs to set up over greenland?? is it the snow cover?? because theyve happened before!! so whats different. let me guess the constant surge of the jet stream!!?

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The gfs det run is not out of place when looking at the GEFS 5-10 mean anomaly

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5547200.thumb.png.7327486e97cd552c9ca0b777ebc868c9.png

Which appears to be leading up to the transfer of the main tpv to northern Canada with an extension to eastern Europe and a trough down eastern seaboard NA. All of this, with moderate amplification over North America, results in a very strong upper flow across the Atlantic around the subtropical high. Await this evening's EPS and NOAA with some interest

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5892800.thumb.png.d4208a0bcf715b0813c91a3b2718abdc.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5892800.thumb.png.ba2450b93c5b812785fd05998ff1f68e.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t850_anom_5day-5892800.thumb.png.66688f67bdc82fa2e09fe92f4d5d428c.png

Edited by knocker
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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM has -5c @850 in situ over the central portion of the UK as the low slides up from the SW

With a shallow system certainly some wintryness could be on offer ?

608F78E3-3856-4A89-A7FE-4AC4E01BE6C0.thumb.png.c77d4e5b239ef2f8d48f2a5922091677.png

Certainly looks possible. I note on the meto long ranger they say about rain in the south on sat so they still think it could end up further north than most models currently show.  Would be fine margins, prob high ground above 150m 

DAD7A7AC-0BF0-4367-AA34-332589998B7A.png

81C2ED0A-6E07-4A52-ABE4-647CAA6D4F7F.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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whilst uncertainty on detail remains, note the 3 wave NH pattern at day six seems pretty reliable and will have some consequences in the strat though not a sustained trop pattern

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The gfs did something similar with a 180kt jet

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5396000.thumb.png.fdae4eca52abf507be65529a377bd498.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Well we certainly know ecm still has it's age old problem of over amplification. Yesterday's 192hr chart compared to today's 168hr.

Screenshot_20191125-184153.png

Screenshot_20191125-184213.png

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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well we certainly know ecm still has it's age old problem of over amplification. Yesterday's 192hr chart compared to today's 168hr.

Screenshot_20191125-184153.png

Screenshot_20191125-184213.png

Personally the main problem was the overdoing of the arctic high. ICON did it too but today they've scaled it back a lot.

But that Russian seems to have appeared out of nowhere so that's interesting but is it friend or foe?

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