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Model output discussion - late November

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That's a huge switch to not cold on the GEFS 6z

GEFS.thumb.png.44c74ce3a0ff5d6901cd4bfdfe8849db.png

GEFS vs EPS & UKMO Op, which for all we know is on the extreme end of cold within its ensembles. 

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS Mean at day 6 fairly similar to the det ECM

416A7D7D-5969-4B59-A2E9-D51AE17A586B.thumb.png.0fc333331be44e1de5ab3b981d119f93.pngB6FE9784-3E2A-4D3A-9C5D-3594FF49F7EC.thumb.gif.71d9b734c31ad8ce767cd1c905db9e8b.gif

 

 

Very noticable from day 6/7 onwards on the GEFS that Iberian heights are growing in strength rapidly, should we not grab this early oppourinty it could be a painful few weeks with that in situ, potentially drier than recent weeks though which is positive.

 

 

The change on the GFS and the GEFS is the low pressure south of Greenland, it is deeper and it doesnt move east and there isnt enough of a ridge in between it and the low coming out of Newfoundland, if those two lows phase then the Greenland high wont happen. It is a perfectly feasible solution  for them to phase, coldies will want them not to, very tight margins as ever for the UK

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I cannot believe the total memory loss of the same old people here, thats the same ones posting the same replies as they do every year - defending the GFS when its going to be wrong.

When you have UKMO aligned to ECM & ECM mean at 120 they are NEVER trumped by an out of kilter GFS especially the 06z which is like comparing a pedigree with a stray.

So for all the neutrals who wonder if its just opinion or is it sound education over a few years lets take yesterday as a prime example of how bad the 06Z GFS is - 

UKMO 144 yest V 120 Today

B5153E79-F386-4A94-83D2-7178CCF0300A.thumb.jpeg.56d5f6a62ca521a53b211bb96025d2c5.jpeg6B525265-FABE-486A-B2C7-E12BFD6ECAB3.thumb.jpeg.05b8b45ae61e0f0de19ee54ecb80d3b3.jpeg

That is a superb match across day 6 down to Day 5. Metronomic consistency with minimal adjustments all around the Globe.

Now look at the runt of the litter the GFS. Same timeline.

6F54335A-95E0-4E68-BE5E-AFD258481719.thumb.jpeg.4c8cd2d0b3dce2a6712f2deac53938e8.jpeg

8A5D94D1-6B0D-4290-9BBF-FE963766558D.thumb.jpeg.18e5dc3a0be635442e434dd94de26c4c.jpeg

Yesterday at 144 No Greenland High, No decent arc of Cold coming through Scandi

UK in southerlies -- Look how much this model has changed in that short time span...

How anyone who indicates they follow the models can put any credibility on such a pants model - means to me they are deliberate in their attempts to derail the thread.

Back to the original well proven point 

* If the 06z goes off on a tangent through 144 then scrap it *

It's pretty simple Steve, either we discus what the models show or we discuss what we want to see.

I have no issues with your comment regarding what the operation MET and ECM show. I have no issue with your comment regarding past corrections of the GFS even if it is an older version of today's model.

The fact is the GFS 06Z sits within the envelope of outcomes for all publicly available data, if you wish to throw this part of the envelope away that must mean you think its wrong and therefore know the eventual outcome which i know you don't, so it must be you want the GFS outcome to be binned because you prefer the outcome of other models.

 

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Gota see an improvement in regards to that atlantic low at 144 hours on the 12zs!!either want it so deep that it sends a ridge up the atlantic or so really slack where it slides!!my money sits on neither and am saying we gona be in huge trouble come the time with a really flat low into the uk regardless of those mini greenland height rises!!

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So nice to see high pressure becoming more dominant down to the SW from December instead of low, I know that's not good news snow-wise but after another very wet period coming up this weekend and lasting into next week for SE Ireland, the Westcountry & S Wales a much drier spell will be very welcome by many ⛅

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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ECM clusters are interesting. All systems go at day 5 in terms of blocking

1.thumb.png.038874be356aa3b8f78ef673c786b396.png

However by day 10 the biggest cluster is looking more like the GFS 6z than it is the ECM op 

2.thumb.png.4a98ec9f8a5cd4d514ae1be00801e1a2.png

So those spouting that the GFS is rubbish because it isn't showing Narnia synoptics.. the GFS 6z op is very much supported not just by it's own ensemble suite, but by the biggest EPS cluster, too. 

That low to the south of Greenland is the problem, where's Nick Sussex and his shortwave spoiler?

Edited by Met4Cast

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It's not the best of GEFS suits I've ever seen and a big change from the 00z - essentially what happens after around Day 9 is virtually all members go for a much milder solution probably helped by a strong Azores High. To me it kind of paints a bit of a picture on what we can expect going forward (the 'pictures' been up in the air of late) -

image.thumb.png.cfb8088dd650564884b8614a6c6ac122.png

00z
 

image.thumb.png.0b1c3b64bc6f393acecde4e1ba3f4501.png

06z - showing the large uptick around the 3rd December

Long way off but it's never ideal when 19/20 ensembles are showing milder than average uppers at around Day 9 onwards

But hey lets not worry too much about that - because before that even happens we have potentially for a cold dig from the North. Most ensembles show this - with most of them being below average for the time of year around D6-9 but most of them aren't cold enough for anything too exciting, away from the usual suspects - 

I'm still looking towards the UKMO and ECM though as well as the handful of GEFS that show a decent solution for later next week with proper colder air trying to be brought in from the North

 

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As said above, the EPS demonstrate it well by day 9, you can see the support for the lows phasing in the poor biggest cluster,while the other  2 smaller clusters are very good, as ever, fine margins for the UK, and as we have seen far too many times, we are on the wrong side of that margin, certainly caution required 

epc 216.png

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8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

ECM clusters are interesting. All systems go at day 5 in terms of blocking

 

However by day 10 the biggest cluster is looking more like the GFS 6z than it is the ECM op 

2.thumb.png.4a98ec9f8a5cd4d514ae1be00801e1a2.png

S

Wished we could order a cluster 4

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11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

ECM clusters are interesting. All systems go at day 5 in terms of blocking

1.thumb.png.038874be356aa3b8f78ef673c786b396.png

However by day 10 the biggest cluster is looking more like the GFS 6z than it is the ECM op 

2.thumb.png.4a98ec9f8a5cd4d514ae1be00801e1a2.png

So those spouting that the GFS is rubbish because it isn't showing Narnia synoptics.. the GFS 6z op is very much supported not just by it's own ensemble suite, but by the biggest EPS cluster, too. 

That low to the south of Greenland is the problem, where's Nick Sussex and his shortwave spoiler?

For what it's worth, MOGREPS is fairly similar to cluster 1 as well with a return to a more mobile pattern as we move into December, so for now any blocked/cold weather is looking likely to be rather short lived, at least until mid-late December when goings on within the stratosphere could make things a little more interesting.

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25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The model is being dismissed because of its track record is useless. It has nothing to do with what I want. Every single year since 2005 I sit here dissecting every single run.

So don't you think in 14 years > 56 Winter months + Nov & approx 1700 runs of the 06z I wont have gleaned some info.

The model will be wrong- Just like the examples Ive highlighted above & from before & every single year.

Its plain to see here you are just being deliberate in trying to derail the thread because of your agenda.

Please just leave it at that.

Todays GFS 06z 168 for reference.

6D52E765-5D99-4FBC-AFDF-812C03D9ABDD.thumb.jpeg.c5e08f2954e5bb6dbf3391b6197b5cc7.jpeg

 

With respect Steve, I don’t think anyone is saying the 6z is correct, but to suggest it’s implausable and should be binned is a bit silly really regardless of whether the 6z is over progressive or not, it fits within a broad envelope of possible outcomes. Not saying it’s right, but still worth discussion and analysing.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped quote.

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

With respect Steve, I don’t think anyone is saying the 6z is correct, but to suggest it’s implausable and should be binned is a bit silly really regardless of whether the 6z is over progressive or not, it fits within a broad envelope of possible outcomes. Not saying it’s right, but still worth discussion and analysing.

Look at its performance yesterday 144>120 today it speaks volumes--

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16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

With respect Steve, I don’t think anyone is saying the 6z is correct, 

But if it is correct, it will be correct by chance rather than its programming.

I agree with Steve. The GFS 6z should never be believed unless it is similar to the Euro models at a particular time frame.

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45 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The model is being dismissed because of its track record is useless. It has nothing to do with what I want. Every single year since 2005 I sit here dissecting every single run.

So don't you think in 14 years > 56 Winter months + Nov & approx 1700 runs of the 06z I wont have gleaned some info.

The model will be wrong- Just like the examples Ive highlighted above & from before & every single year.

Its plain to see here you are just being deliberate in trying to derail the thread because of your agenda.

Please just leave it at that.

Todays GFS 06z 168 for reference.

6D52E765-5D99-4FBC-AFDF-812C03D9ABDD.thumb.jpeg.c5e08f2954e5bb6dbf3391b6197b5cc7.jpeg

 

Not sure what else I can say..........

The output of the 06 Op GFS would fit in with the 0z Ensemble GFS output without being an outright outlier.

The entire Suite has moved with the operational, nothing new about that it has happened many countless times before and it has moved back, sometimes it hasn't but what history tells us is you can not throw a run away without seeing its ensembles just because its different..... hence the term more runs needed. 

I think these exchanges are useful for us all .

Edited by Blessed Weather
Edited to reflect original post in quote box now edited.

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A glance at the EC weeklies update for the last half of December

For the 15th -22nd the salient points are:

Vortex northern Canada with trough extension mid Atlantic and minor indications of a ridge south east Greenland , Thus a

strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic, abating in the east where the subtropical high is stirring over western Europe

From the 24th-31st

Vortex still northern Canada with some retrogression of the trough but retaining a strong westerly upper flow but noticeable negatively anonymous in the east as the subtropical high appears to be less influential.

The overall indications are temps above average with a period of changeable weather, perhaps more so in the last week, and quite likely tending towards a north south split looking at the rainfall spread

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-6972800.thumb.png.09dd33d373f228c16fcf340d1c8d69f3.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-7750400.thumb.png.66f9aaa313bc05c2bd8620274aded685.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-6972800.thumb.png.344f39389df4c19b8db0fc90d32bf967.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-7750400.thumb.png.ea3593be2278f00f15143d789c618949.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-7664000.thumb.png.2c6831a11661468a498cfa020ecabd9c.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

But if it is correct, it will be correct by chance rather than its programming.

I agree with Steve. The GFS 6z should never be believed unless it is similar to the Euro models at a particular time frame.

And yet no one is saying the GFS 06z is correct.

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Well steve has a valid point!!= and we find ourselves discussing this year in year out..

 

The 6z gfs is bottom of the pile...in its sister suites!!=12z =00z =18z..with most time the night run in top pack!!! @00z

 

So lets out this out with the bins!!!..

As again...we've been hear b4...many times b4!!!

Screenshot_2019-11-22-12-42-21.png

Edited by tight isobar

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GFS op disagreements aside it is more concerning for me that MOGREPS only sees this as a transient cold spell, most EPS clusters and GEFS (ensembles) agree (19/20) Meteogroup (BBC forecast earlier) said brief cold spell end of next week and they have more output to digest and come to this forecast than us. Will be interesting to see the meto long range update shortly.  Still time for change and all the models are just forecasts, but odds are not stacked in our favor our I’m afraid...fingers crossed for a stonking set of 12zs 

Edited by Tim Bland

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25 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure what else I can say..........

The output of the 06 Op GFS would fit in with the 0z Ensemble GFS output without being an outright outlier.

The entire Suite has moved with the operational, nothing new about that it has happened many countless times before and it has moved back, sometimes it hasn't but what history tells us is you can not throw a run away without seeing its ensembles just because its different..... hence the term more runs needed. 

I think these exchanges are useful for us all.

 

I will add detail & tag you later

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Edited to reflect original post in quote box now edited.

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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS op disagreements aside it is more concerning for me that MOGREPS only sees this as a transient cold spell, most EPS clusters and GEFS (ensembles) agree (19/20) Meteogroup (BBC forecast earlier) said brief cold spell end of next week and they have more output to digest and come to this forecast than us. Will be interesting to see the meto long range update shortly.  Still time for change and all the models are just forecasts, but odds are not stacked in our favor our I’m afraid...fingers crossed for a stonking set of 12zs 

The MOGREPS are equally as fallible as any other model really though aren’t they, last winter has scarred me I mean the Met further outlook said cold to very cold from the east for about 2 months and it never truly materialised, which must mean the mogreps were just as wrong.

One day technology will advance far enough that weather predictions can be absolutely exact, until that day I think particularly outside of a 5/6 day range the UK will remain a minefield, I mean let’s be honest no models are particularly reliable once you get past that 5/6 day region, partly due to our location.

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The ext anomalies this morning were in the same ball park but the GEFS had th NH pattern a tad further east which obviously will make a difference regarding the evolution of the detail so needs to be resolved. Await this evening with some interest

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-5590400.thumb.png.3f6890e8e02250dad4412192b92c4750.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-5590400.thumb.png.fd57a8cebfe85014832b3dd71bd6cf45.png

 

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