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Model output discussion - late November

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2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Strictly for fun at 7 days out, but here's how weather site Tameteo present the ECM precipitation charts for Mon 2nd. Snow showers - shown in green - into Scotland and then down the NE coast before dying out overnight into Tues:

06.00 893013177_ECMMon02Dec06_00.thumb.jpg.7dd9e89679e5b5db4dbd4b82caee1b61.jpg 12.00 466953724_ECMMon02Dec12_00.thumb.jpg.4431258325a72f4b4a7a5442cf2f8bc5.jpg

18.00 1572545205_ECMMon02Dec18_00.thumb.jpg.434c5239d2750b7faf398ba8fdca554d.jpg 00.00 1911709845_ECMTue03Dec00_00.thumb.jpg.4e4937fd893d4b290d50e3242e6d8991.jpg

Feb and myself likey !!! 

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The ext EPS is not as quick to progress the pattern east as the GEFS, ergo the vortex trough extension into Europe and the Atlantic subtropical high are still quite influential  Thus the strong upper flow exiting a relatively amplified North America still has a north westerly component over the UK

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5806400.thumb.png.5407d337160e8b3390372871188cf4cb.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5806400.thumb.png.a0849f8808754dab91ea2741a885ab31.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5806400.thumb.png.3fef3229cb295418797ca962bb6ebcc6.png

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2 hours ago, Northern Sky said:

The last few GFS runs in far FI keep churning out crazy cold/cool zonality. Just once I'd love to see it actually happen. Wind, rain, sleet, the kitchen sink. I would love that sort of weather!

image.thumb.png.502c6295ee8b9d14efe87a2f794ae806.png

That's close On a Bartlett, don't wish to hard.

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37 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Christ it must have been a good day of model viewing - nine pages to catch up on since I logged off this morning. 😀

That really is a lovely ECM tonight for all of us who enjoy some seasonal early Winter weather. 
Makes the build up to Christmas a bit more festive as well! 🎅
Plenty of cold days, frosts and some snow for quite a few of us.

anim_siz4.gif
 

Now that’s the real deal!!! (For the time of year 🥶)

E26F62E6-8F91-456A-A36A-0563237A6EDD.thumb.jpeg.30a9db5e4c18ce4fb8ec29b8134b13d8.jpeg

Lovely choice of gifs David. I tell you what if the ECM mean is anything to go buy.. He will most certainly be losing that tan come end of the month... 😉 First time I have witnessed that mean dip to around - 5 since the talk of cold esculated a few weeks ago. It does trend higher by day 10...but that's a long way off, and will be subject to change.... Enjoy the ride folks..... Next stop..... - 10 celsiusville.... 😉

graphe_ens3.png

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That's not a bad looking mean at 168 v 192 this morning.

EDH1-168.thumb.gif.85f22ccb99d4438c56907f3ebc9870f2.gifEDH1-192.thumb.gif.1ca67fd8ca817eba295bf251ac373a65.gif

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.f5344b28de88e6861da3acb31c39a5fc.png

so a good few days of cold weather does look on the cards,can we extend it a bit further?

 

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While the models have indeed upgraded it's worth keeping in mind that heights over Greenland don't really persist beyond 24hours. So the outlook is a cold one with perhaps frost persisting though next Sunday/Monday. But widespread snow is not showing yet anyway.

Saying that it's been a different Autumn with temps rarely exceeding 10C over the last 3 weeks. So confidence is rightly high as we move into Winter proper!!

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Just now, January Snowstorm said:

While the models have indeed upgraded it's worth keeping in mind that heights over Greenland don't really persist beyond 24hours. So the outlook is a cold one with perhaps frost persisting though next Sunday/Monday. But widespread snow is not showing yet anyway.

Saying that it's been a different Autumn with temps rarely exceeding 10C over the last 3 weeks. So confidence is rightly high as we move into Winter proper!!

I don't think these types of setups are going to produce widespread snowfall anyway - that's not what anyone is really believing in. 

We are all for it turning colder with wintry showers and frosts.

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1 hour ago, icykev said:

Really good for watching lamposts.image.png.ce7d8f67755443d82d1f82953381c0

Cant wait possible epic evolution in process. Solar minimum with climate change my bet.

20191111_210651.jpg.e3e50d35b41cc3b9d186df2d340333eb.jpg

Sydney getting some long awaited camo🐇🐺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

That's if there is much precipitation with them synoptics which I suppose there would be. Sydney seems to be doing a lot lately 😂 from having sneak peaks at the met office models with his Christmas hat on to getting camo. ☺️

Edited by jordan smith

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19 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

That's close On a Bartlett, don't wish to hard.

No - a bartlett is orientated such as to bring up winds from the South West, It is also a huge area of heights covering practically the whole of Continental Europe, there is a trough in Southern Europe on that chart.

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So, big upgrade on the medium term insofar as the EC mean is concerned-

Confidence increasing of a 4 or 5 day colder and drier spell, would like UKMO to fall in line on the 00z runs to show something akin to EC det ..

Would be brill to have a cold frosty weekend with the markets and folk doing their christmas shopping.

Beats wind and rain and temps of 10,11 or 12 deg..

 

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No - a bartlett is orientated such as to bring up winds from the South West, It is also a huge area of heights covering practically the whole of Continental Europe, there is a trough in Southern Europe on that chart.

That Azores high is strong, being backed East to join the high further East, the trough is in significant, winds will start coming in from a Sw direction as the vortex tightens , it's a Euro high close to being a Bartlett soon after that chart. So yes.

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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11 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Me love this long time..well, until the next Ecm run at least!!!!👍🥶😜💘💘💘💘💘💘

120_thickuk.thumb.png.4092f042edfc71ab8a2322d112f8c85c.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.dffaacdd7438bff65f8ada19a24bafda.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.cb1ae52586f09271a210bc29b8eae778.png168_mslp850.thumb.png.3d51bc6b0ad89d624c4de3d571d6860b.png168_thick.thumb.png.2c24db83bc5be95b8d054402694ba6ba.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.7ccec1b79280e66a1ce2de76c7c8111d.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.c946fb19220687c2870c4cdfc6e506c2.png192_thick.thumb.png.00f94c15366c67bb4358f69b8c62e8c4.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.5c5c9380cc985d7e7140f7076631c0a8.pngwinteriscoming.thumb.jpg.74ad6753b6906a0ee1a3c4ce31a712d9.jpg

 

It's nice to see you posting charts in clusters Karl instead of a single column,makes for easy viewing for phone uses

loving these cold charts coming out,hopefully more to come,thanks.

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The confidence 2/3 days ago was high re zonal/mild end of month into Dec, now confidence is high that this approaching cold shot will shift and turn mild again.  We’ll see......7/10 for me that cold will grip and come at us time and again this Dec......that’s my stance and has been for some time......let the battle commence

 

BFTP

Indeed its strange. 

It will be interesting to see where we go after the cold spell (if it materializes) 

Backgound signals showing a return to a more typical December but as each run toddles out the low solar activity may mean that the atlantic might not have as much energy as it may think. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

That Azores high is strong, being backed East to join the high further East, the trough is in significant, winds will start coming in from a Sw direction as the vortex tightens , it's a Euro high close to being a Bartlett soon after at chart. 

All academic right in the depths of super fi territory but in the particular op run the Azores high is once again trying to extend towards Greenland its a cool/cold zonal setup and pv still favours more Siberia side than candian?

Winds coming from the Greenland southern tip peninsula.

gfsnh-0-360.png

gfsnh-0-384.png

gfsnh-1-384.png

gfsnh-14-360.png

gfsnh-14-384.png

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

The midweek low with the ecm. Interesting reverse movement south east which I'm taking as being down to the secondary energy flow around the high cell. Any thoughts @johnholmes

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4769600.thumb.png.f2e90466f821c5e9324b665db5443e6e.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4856000.thumb.png.87c183c0db3a7e716ef799983aee390d.png

48.thumb.png.500f3fce65f113fa4c80ff296837286b.png60.thumb.png.983a1df617032c7613a052f11b9c4a1e.png72.thumb.png.5db829a963afded43e443e104b832830.png

Have to say no to your question k, sorry

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just as the 18z fire up a reminder of where we want to see the under cutting developing

9D3F2395-FBE3-472B-B084-380CA6EDD9B0.thumb.jpeg.1b124b602d5c48e93b01008529685dc3.jpeg

Also the ECM control goes deep cold out to day 15 !

Steve surely the icon cannot improve any further from.the 12z!!!the gfs 18z surely can improve a bit more with more amplification in the atlantic and more undercutting!!

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With charts like these D8355903-8F0D-414C-BC82-4CB85F4F2BE4.thumb.png.1ca49978ace19e525ac9ee1c664d017b.png D516659C-C982-4F01-9913-B9FFFB184EF6.thumb.png.a0dbbae9206db8e372295b545431298b.pngI’m thinking these may well become pretty busy48B89C77-1FC5-43FA-9BC4-237C575DA571.thumb.jpeg.eda43084ebeba6fd61b4d86fffe811be.jpegAnd hopefully we will get what pretty much all (most) of us want on here....

ThisC6FF3C94-C8A2-4F24-BED1-271D4A307135.thumb.jpeg.f4d19c4c6f37f3e80bcf0383a1334d20.jpeg

obviously that’s providing it actually happens of course.

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1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Have to say no to your question k, sorry

Adding to that after looking at the jet and 300 mb flow, I cannot see why it should be positioned as far south as that. It must mean GFS/ECMWF/Met have a slightly differeint upper air pattern in the last 12-18 hours leading up to that time?

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