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Model output discussion - late November

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Can someone post a ppn type and intensity chart for the ECM 192 please?

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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

think filth these days does mean excellent, but unsure, but I'm not optimistic yet, great EC, just about right time of year now for snow everywhere, but this is well in FI

Only time ever I've heard filth to describe a good looking synoptic.. I don't think anyone should be pinning hopes into them charts at that range. From what I've seen the high topples over next week but we shall see.

Edited by jordan smith

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I am glad i saved the gefs ens from a few days ago...

12z 21/11/2019 v 12z today

graphe_ens3_pfo8.thumb.gif.681300e95204ae71e30c0659b0976312.gifgraphe3_1000_261_26___.thumb.png.e9acea3e743c4f3dc88a8cab0640aafd.png

and there was musings over that this cold snap/spell could be over before it even started:oldrolleyes:

12z ens table shows the majority into -5 or below(my local)

Untitled.thumb.png.6057320c3fa4cc877e061f4fcb0db9de.png

so it just shows how quick a cold snap/spell can quickly appear.

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can someone post a ppn type and intensity chart for the ECM 192 please?

For what it's worth

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-snow_6hr-5288000.thumb.png.b5cbfb6dfb2e418ccba404359e3e61cf.png

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ECM shows the colder air getting petered out by the very end of the run

image.thumb.png.bdddbaf4331c6e17f97af3894ebfebb2.png

 

But goodness goodness me. This hasn't just been an upgrade, it's been a complete change of fortunes since the charts we were seeing say 2-3 days ago

All eyes on whats to come then

And what an absolutely cracking set of GEFS ensembles too (in comparison to previous runs over the last 2-3 days). 

This to me tells me we have no sustained period of milder than average temperatures coming up at all. It's going colder and colder.

image.thumb.png.85e4e53fc95e4a7a74e91d76af05d45e.png

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

For what it's worth

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-snow_6hr-5288000.thumb.png.b5cbfb6dfb2e418ccba404359e3e61cf.png

Thanks, i think they underdo showers so would imagine more than that - looks like a lovely streamer getting right into the Pennines there.

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Evolution from 216 to 240 looks a bit suspect to me 🤔 Italian lie just dissipates 🤷🏻‍♂️

CF3D4617-4034-487A-95CD-1ED17AF4FC90.png

6D204661-F7B0-45CF-BAF2-AE89984AE027.png

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Evolution from 216 to 240 looks a bit suspect to me 🤔 Italian lie just dissipates 🤷🏻‍♂️

CF3D4617-4034-487A-95CD-1ED17AF4FC90.png

6D204661-F7B0-45CF-BAF2-AE89984AE027.png

If you look at the 6z EC there are still heights towards scan etc.the 12z drops the heights very quickly given the lower heights south..just one run and be totally different by morning

Edited by swfc

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks, i think they underdo showers so would imagine more than that - looks like a lovely streamer getting right into the Pennines there.

Please don't tell me  that you are seriously discussing detail such as this eight days away There  is a lot riding on how this trough and downstream amplification actually turns out

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-5180000.thumb.png.d4b721d465146ddb270172378843d785.png

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Please don't tell me  that you are seriously discussing detail such as this eight days away There  is a lot riding on how this trough and downstream amplification actually turns out

 

Just discussing what might be hiding behind the board - bully's special prize, yes i admit we need to hit the bullseye in order to win it.

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The jma starting to come on board too.

192 v 204 last night

JN192-21.thumb.gif.f86848157496d2e8eb89928abc229cb9.gifJN204-21.thumb.gif.0f8901192fc4e337c7036aed5f7dad9a.gif

strat warming becoming more noticeable now too starting at just 108hrs >192.

JN108-5.thumb.gif.67d12c26db7fdd3e71a5c504820f0065.gifJN192-5.thumb.gif.d6c800bf5bd7740f4a844f9c87956ee2.gif

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

 

strat warming becoming more noticeable now too starting at just 108hrs >192.

JN108-5.thumb.gif.67d12c26db7fdd3e71a5c504820f0065.gifJN192-5.thumb.gif.d6c800bf5bd7740f4a844f9c87956ee2.gif

At last, someone has posted a strat chart that’s not at T+384!! 

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The jma starting to come on board too.

192 v 204 last night

JN192-21.thumb.gif.f86848157496d2e8eb89928abc229cb9.gifJN204-21.thumb.gif.0f8901192fc4e337c7036aed5f7dad9a.gif

strat warming becoming more noticeable now too starting at just 108hrs >192.

JN108-5.thumb.gif.67d12c26db7fdd3e71a5c504820f0065.gifJN192-5.thumb.gif.d6c800bf5bd7740f4a844f9c87956ee2.gif

Look at that two pronged attack from the Pacific ridge and the Atlantic ridge, quite unusual

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18 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Could you explain in more detail? 

Don't you mean excellent.. 👍

Really good for watching lamposts.image.png.ce7d8f67755443d82d1f82953381c0

Cant wait possible epic evolution in process. Solar minimum with climate change my bet.

20191111_210651.jpg.e3e50d35b41cc3b9d186df2d340333eb.jpg

Sydney getting some long awaited camo🐇🐺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

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This is a dreamland scenario for me - 

image.thumb.png.90cdb6141befe61ccc09058798182c76.png

Edited by StretfordEnd1996

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4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

At last, someone has posted a strat chart that’s not at T+384!! 

Can you please use the strat thread please!!! Sorry always wanted to say that😔😔fair point tho and il get my coat!!

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Well starting December, you can`t complain with -6 to -8 850`s over the whole country.

 

ECM0-168.gif

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Whilst probably not delivering much snow, it would certainly bring a real chill to the air with temperatures in the low to mid single figure range to start December.

Looking at week 2, you need that Azore ridge to be sheered away to allow it to drift further north to veer the wind to the east and keep the cold going. The ECM has that trough weaken significantly and is swept aside by a deeper trough exiting the States which blows up that round Atlantic ridge by day 10. That could easily change and could easily result in something more favourable. Still some snow showers and some sharp frosts if the ECM is into something. Not too shabby.

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Strictly for fun at 7 days out, but here's how weather site Tameteo present the ECM precipitation charts for Mon 2nd. Snow showers - shown in green - into Scotland and then down the NE coast before dying out overnight into Tues:

06.00 893013177_ECMMon02Dec06_00.thumb.jpg.7dd9e89679e5b5db4dbd4b82caee1b61.jpg 12.00 466953724_ECMMon02Dec12_00.thumb.jpg.4431258325a72f4b4a7a5442cf2f8bc5.jpg

18.00 1572545205_ECMMon02Dec18_00.thumb.jpg.434c5239d2750b7faf398ba8fdca554d.jpg 00.00 1911709845_ECMTue03Dec00_00.thumb.jpg.4e4937fd893d4b290d50e3242e6d8991.jpg

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Some lovely charts to view today, would be great if we could keep seeing them evolve the same way (or maybe even get better?!) over this next week!!

I was also wondering if there were any plans to start a "Hunt for Cold" thread again any time soon? The banter/hyperbole etc last year was great and made for some fun reading but without disrespecting those who wanted to stick to more serious model watching on the original thread!

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8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Whilst probably not delivering much snow, it would certainly bring a real chill to the air with temperatures in the low to mid single figure range to start December.

Looking at week 2, you need that Azore ridge to be sheered away to allow it to drift further north to veer the wind to the east and keep the cold going. The ECM has that trough weaken significantly and is swept aside by a deeper trough exiting the States which blows up that round Atlantic ridge by day 10. That could easily change and could easily result in something more favourable. Still some snow showers and some sharp frosts if the ECM is into something. Not too shabby.

Yes, smart money remains a sinking mid Atlantic high but EC in particular gets the high far enough north to introduce a cold airmass.

First weekend in Dec looks really quite cold, excellent time of year given the short days to maximize sub zero minima.

:cold:

Of course this is based on one EC det ..

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