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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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Once the cold weather has gone (always supposing it does go!) we look to be heading into mountains of uncertainty:

prmslSuffolk.png   t850Suffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Anywho, there will still be cold days mixed in with milder ones; probably more so the further north you go:

t850Aberdeenshire.png     t2mAberdeenshire.png

But largely academic, at such an extended range...🤔

Edited by Ed Stone
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This thread is going to get busy....

49A1148B-C59A-4888-8767-D710577E8B1B.gif

The behaviour of that Newfoundland low all important. It seemingly behaves here (if you want cold) with a shape that directs a southerly/south-easterly into west Greenland

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Midlands north only place cold enough for snow tying in with that low - prob high ground 

E292512A-E427-4294-B75F-6EF084777BEE.png

That’s -4 850hpa from somerset to Scotland 🤷🏻‍♂️ Doubt the precipitation will get much further north than the midlands. Should find out about 730pm when the weather.us charts are out

B529A320-29E7-4187-AFEB-AC55828E0E1E.gif

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Midlands north only place cold enough for snow tying in with that low - prob high ground 

E292512A-E427-4294-B75F-6EF084777BEE.png

Depends on exact nuances would be difficult to say at this range I think parts of the south could definitely see snow even with -4 or 5 uppers.

My general point wasn’t just for that chart anyway, this run could be a STONKER look at that near vertical WAA

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ECM says yes,LOOK AT THAT🤩

168

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.c9a69f7932c27f91e665d2d3a9688abe.gifECH0-168.thumb.gif.a3876e8539cb12561832d86c6a80e408.gif

look at the cut back SW of the trough to our NE,STUNNING

192 is going to be epic!!!

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Very cold ECM at 192

But some pressure being applied to the block

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8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Sorry but can you explain further? What exactly is "amplification" ? Is the ECM better or worse on this time?

Amplification is the north south component of the jet, think of a wave - the more amplified, the greater the peaks and troughs.  Re the ECM / GEM this thread is probably running too fast to disect the T120 charts, but here we are now at T168, ECM first:

image.thumb.jpg.ad8ad6fa6ff3ebfb3bc00ef62eff8d02.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b30ca2775ec1bf4e2d381ec97e479197.jpg

GEM is better as ridges further north, ECM is better as the whole thing is further west, on balance ECM win.

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Just now, lamppost watcher said:

Absolute filth

Screenshot_20191124-184301_Meteociel.jpg

Some snow showers into the east there, proper windchill 

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20 minutes ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.b82434ee259dfadf44dc4e7ff87f29cb.pngIM GOING NUTS

8 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

 

Pretty good evolution on the EC 12z.for any new members I'd give it 48 hours .great eye candy mind.just as a side note the 6z EC is better at 192- 240 than the 12 imo.not that it matters obv because it's all subject to change

Edited by swfc
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8 minutes ago, lamppost watcher said:

Absolute filth

Screenshot_20191124-184301_Meteociel.jpg

Usually that's a word to describe the euro slug pattern that pattern above certainly isn't filth well unless you hate a cold looking synoptic output. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith
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5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Artic high too 

Indeed. If, IF, the Atlantic/Greenland High locks in with that Arctic High, then we could be locked in to a long, cold spell

Big if, of course, but the possibility is there

Edit: it doesn't on this run. I did sense that pressure was being applied to the blocking high at 192

Edited by LRD
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4 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Could you explain in more detail? 

Don't you mean excellent.. 👍

think filth these days does mean excellent, but unsure, but I'm not optimistic yet, great EC, just about right time of year now for snow everywhere, but this is well in FI

long way out, but snow day for SM and Kent folk

ECM1-216.GIF?24-0

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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