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Model output discussion - late November

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Near cross globe heights linking up on the control, I’m an optimist but if that comes off I will eat my hat! 😂 That strong Pacific high seems to be becoming a real driver.

731FD888-B066-4154-9514-F0C23DD8BB64.png

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The last few GFS runs in far FI keep churning out crazy cold/cool zonality. Just once I'd love to see it actually happen. Wind, rain, sleet, the kitchen sink. I would love that sort of weather!

image.thumb.png.502c6295ee8b9d14efe87a2f794ae806.png

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A lot of negative anomalies on the ext GEFS mean this evening

The tpv over the Pole with some amplification North America but the noted feature is the strong upper flow connecting the vortex trough extensions down the eastern seaboard and Europe, albeit the Atlantic subtropical high does maintain some influence. Indicating unsettled but probably a N/S split

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5806400.thumb.png.3fd14324f148799de3552f62cac3a10d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5806400.thumb.png.f312250e117a64561036d890cac48354.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5806400.thumb.png.6ab400a4ee9764076863e5971518e51d.png

 

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50 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS short enesmbles showing significant improved cold prospects over the 00z

 

graphe3_1000_258_94___.gifgraphe3_0000_258_94___.gif

I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run. 

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1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run. 

The right one only goes up to 192 hours, so it make's it look better.

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2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run. 

The second Graph is D1-8, the First graph is D1-16.

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1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

The last few GFS runs in far FI keep churning out crazy cold/cool zonality. Just once I'd love to see it actually happen. Wind, rain, sleet, the kitchen sink. I would love that sort of weather!

Here's that kitchen sink you ordered.. 

U7TOVr5.thumb.gif.120de772f2c791ee94d96280ceef8157.gif

 🤣 

Anyway.. Here's the GEFS mean sea level pressure anomaly showing that low for the weekend perhaps mostly slipping to the south with that high toppling over but you can see the Atlantic low pressure systems already putting high amounts of pressure on that high come next week so a resumption of Atlantic dominated conditions seems likely at this stage after perhaps colder conditions early next week.. this an anomaly but it quite clearly shows where areas of high and low pressure are ofcourse. 🙂

zukFGwMI94.thumb.gif.bef9837c3aa4a31fde97ae058d254d0f.gif

Finally the Gem rainfall accumulation as I didn't post it earlier upto 1st December. Wettest for southern areas but drier conditions for a time thereafter.

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAINACCUM_162.thumb.jpg.59518d3f84556089095ca5bcc3bed1e9.jpg 

Edited by jordan smith
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Comparing ECM with GEM at T120, you could argue more prone or less prone to amplification, certainly that second push of heights is in play, ECM first:

 

image.thumb.jpg.8729eb65994118b54c93539fde3d744e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1f19ae9545b23e87f4210cf63f9818ff.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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The midweek low with the ecm. Interesting reverse movement south east which I'm taking as being down to the secondary energy flow around the high cell. Any thoughts @johnholmes

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4769600.thumb.png.f2e90466f821c5e9324b665db5443e6e.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4856000.thumb.png.87c183c0db3a7e716ef799983aee390d.png

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Edited by knocker
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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Comparing ECM with GEM at T120, you could argue more prone or less prone to amplification, certainly that second push of heights is in play, ECM first:

 

image.thumb.jpg.8729eb65994118b54c93539fde3d744e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1f19ae9545b23e87f4210cf63f9818ff.jpg

Sorry but can you explain further? What exactly is "amplification" ? Is the ECM better or worse on this time?

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

This thread is going to get busy....

49A1148B-C59A-4888-8767-D710577E8B1B.gif

That low is going to slide into some pretty cold air ❄️☃️🥶

F4A06424-0A16-4771-856F-180380D0CD66.gif

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ECM T144, somewhere between the GEM and UKMO at same time, in that order:

image.thumb.jpg.69a5ff9ce519e6c26c213324f357c15a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1b913c3c865df406002c5d573c63c0e0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.17c2f702f34cbaa6712201df4cdd2dde.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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Just now, Weathizard said:

This thread is going to get busy....

49A1148B-C59A-4888-8767-D710577E8B1B.gif

Midlands north only place cold enough for snow tying in with that low - prob high ground 

E292512A-E427-4294-B75F-6EF084777BEE.png

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, somewhere between the GEM and UKMO at same time, in that order:

image.thumb.jpg.69a5ff9ce519e6c26c213324f357c15a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1b913c3c865df406002c5d573c63c0e0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.17c2f702f34cbaa6712201df4cdd2dde.jpg

You mean t144? Very nice ecm👍

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