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Model output discussion - late November

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19 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

but one wonders how some find the time for posts that must take ages to do.

I suppose this was referring to my post I made earlier with it being very long? Got another long one In a bit sorry. 😅

Edited by jordan smith
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Nice depiction of the approaching frontal system with Altostratus, which lowered from Cs late morning, down here

2019112412.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.eeb22f57cd17a786da1bdf0a4e0c3362.gif12.thumb.gif.f40cb365f0775d85ef4046b8d9ce7c7e.gif

Edited by knocker
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So the weather for the next few days I will use the Gfs. 🙂

As you well know today a much drier day with just a few showers.. But you can see by evening the next batch of rain is to the southwest this will move into much of England and Wales during tonight not particularly heavy for most but more rain on saturated ground will likely cause a few issues. Rain perhaps fringing into northern Ireland too but Scotland and the far North of England a mostly dry night and not too cold. Winds blowing southerly to south-westerly. 

b3239822-3009-465e-ac24-6938ae04cde3.thumb.gif.bfaa65f0636081958f4b476bdace9e8f.gifb60a17a1-e4e0-472f-a384-7ce104f0b55a.thumb.gif.cc718f950f94e67af3f00d3da2eadf02.gif

The majority of tomorrow is looking mostly cloudy for the country with further spells of rain moving through particularly for central southern and Eastern England. 

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Things then turn drier from the south into tomorrow night but more rain coming back into the southwest this then during Tuesday morning pushes northeast through much of the country giving a very wet morning.. 

2bc77df2-73f5-4568-a76a-17ddff2d4db6.thumb.gif.2cb5431a3974a18b8418aa6b5afe2d7b.gif17c6911b-ca2b-4401-9325-86de453f700b.thumb.gif.28fdf2541a9b0cd3957c29c6e294401e.gif

Rain then lingers for Scotland later Tuesday with some more heavy bursts of rain perhaps in the southeast This all containing the remnants of ex Sebastien.. 

3ac140a0-3faa-44d0-9af4-ac5e8b116f84.thumb.gif.fe484cf53c5e260bd47c5b4ad679eff2.gif

The centre of low pressure that was out West pushing through England and Wales later Tuesday night into Wednesday giving very windy conditions especially for the channel and some more persistent rain again.. The frontal system that pushed across earlier in the day on Tuesday still over Scotland by Wednesday giving heavy and persistent rainfall there. 

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Thursday and Friday looking much drier with a few showers wintry at times for the north of the country..

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Saturday could be mostly dry for Scotland northern Ireland and northern England but for the south and southwest rain may push in and with some colder air in situ then the risk of some snow for the hills of Wales perhaps on Saturday night but too far out for anymore detail. :oldgood:

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Edited by jordan smith
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON ticks the first box of the day with Vertical advection at just 126 now !

👌👌

iconnh-0-144.png

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Icon will raise a few eyebrows almost the first boom of the season mid Atlantic ridge much stronger and heading north. Hope the icon is leading the way here huge opportunities if we get to this point

E3BACA2F-EBAE-4AC7-B710-F00496D5A813.png

6C28885D-A214-4244-8062-0ABA01F5F431.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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6 minutes ago, snowray said:

More upgrades on the ICON, door wide open for cold, sleet/snow likely for the midland and north there. And look at that lovely high moving up towards Greenland.:yahoo:

Well done Steve M for sticking to your guns yesterday.👏

icon-0-156.png

icon-1-156.png

Probably close but no cigar on this run for snow on that front. Precip stays south of the -4 850 line. 

D3931D04-E907-48C1-B01C-70EC1DFF9F33.png

516EA42E-C57D-4FEA-BEC1-5150F3F3A953.png

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if icon is correct then the gfs  bias to push the atlantic through as quick as possible will be even more evident.

More westward correction  from gfs coming up I would imagine.

Edited by SLEETY
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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Probably close but no cigar on this run for snow on that front. Precip stays south of the -4 850 line. 

D3931D04-E907-48C1-B01C-70EC1DFF9F33.png

516EA42E-C57D-4FEA-BEC1-5150F3F3A953.png

Precipitation in SE Scotland could be interesting on that chart 

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that bloody ICON pushes everything westwards 🙂

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4 minutes ago, jules216 said:

that bloody ICON pushes everything westwards 🙂

That is what we want - honestly i can tell you something for a fact, you will get heavy snow at some point this winter where you are.

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ICON also brings a small arctic high into play which was absent on earlier runs. Definitely a good sign there. 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is what we want - honestly i can tell you something for a fact, you will get heavy snow at some point this winter where you are.

I dont want any more southerly advection like Icon,had enough of that,barely a frost this autumn which is crazy

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5 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

ICON also brings a small arctic high into play which was absent on earlier runs. Definitely a good sign there. 

Yes, I noticed that too. Serves to 'tidy' things up around Northern Greenland

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UKMO sticking with its 00z solution it would seem at T120.

UW120-21.gif

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Just now, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.faf16cfdefd1ae1c3575cc22df9d18bb.pngOpinions on UKMO 120hrs?

Not brilliant. Iberian High in play

But, on the more positive side, pressure looks like rising in the South Greenland area

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19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That is what we want - honestly i can tell you something for a fact, you will get heavy snow at some point this winter where you are.

Feb that's something that i think we all know is likely at some point in a 3 month time span. 8)😜

Edited by jordan smith

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UKMO is better at 120 with the amplification which is key-

Uppers over the Uk probably -6c at that point - needs a nudge west really 🙂

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1 minute ago, XtremeUKWeather said:

image.thumb.png.faf16cfdefd1ae1c3575cc22df9d18bb.pngOpinions on UKMO 120hrs?

Well obviously not so good, UKMO has been wrong though many times at T120 but we shall have to wait and see. The fax charts will be interesting later on.

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Both the UKMO & GFS show faster CAA from the NE at 96 & lower heights-

This will get colder air into the UK quicker 🙂

144 Satisfactory with the ridge but not quite as good over the UK. not bad though for longevity !

Edited by Steve Murr
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