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Paul

Model output discussion - late November

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Certainly one to keep an eye on Nick, if the time line falls right, rush hour weds morning could interesting.

CA108FAF-E04B-453E-B485-1336FB70AABD.thumb.png.1c60fc31bf6c4f99a9b20bd5540c2c93.png132DF5BC-71FE-422A-9A89-1BBB61FADB1E.thumb.png.cdbb03527cd7f07c3ef46951c5519751.png

 

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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z Mean out to 120 sees a better ridge profile in atlantic so im going to push the boat out & go for x3 -10 runs into EA at around 192

Steve take a look at latest control at 180 hours😍

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The clusters for t192 and 216 with the det charts for same Interesting that the latter are not a million miles from the second cluster which i suppose makes sense

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019112400_192.thumb.png.d5f6022307862b449544e16de752ec62.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-5244800.thumb.png.935117fa4d6e24126adbb09a0d77d751.png192.thumb.png.5f03df1140389ba3b964c08c68431cb7.png

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019112400_216.thumb.png.a6c46286955207e190a1f26201cf91e1.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-5331200.thumb.png.2500f2c1b73b1e64181b7aa57356d0a6.pngindex.thumb.png.094da442ebd62f9debc0d0da270c37ed.png

I forgot the surface charts

 

Edited by knocker

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5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep. Thankfully it's in FI but this chart is a shocker

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

 

I wouldn't worry too much about this at this stage.

I mean if you're in the look out for cold weather, it's best not to but a downer on yourself by panicking about what may happen after a cold interlude which is what you've been wanting all along!

Yes, granted, the chances are this colder interlude will be nothing more than that - it's not going to be deep cold and substantial snow and it never was going to be. 

And it's looked the case for a good few days now that the Azores/Eurodog would come back in to play straight after (around 2-3rd December). 

If you're wanting cold, we've got a golden ticket back end of next week. Let's leave the Azores to one side for now.

These uppers sure introduce Winter with a bit of a bang, brrrr

 

192-7UK.gif

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As overall patterns go, the scrag-end of the GFS 06Z would be pretty useless, down here in the Triangle of Doom; but, for the Scottish Highlands...?:oldgood:⛷️

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I wouldn't worry too much about this at this stage.

I mean if you're in the look out for cold weather, it's best not to but a downer on yourself by panicking about what may happen after a cold interlude which is what you've been wanting all along!

Yes, granted, the chances are this colder interlude will be nothing more than that - it's not going to be deep cold and substantial snow and it never was going to be. 

And it's looked the case for a good few days now that the Azores/Eurodog would come back in to play straight after (around 2-3rd December). 

If you're wanting cold, we've got a golden ticket back end of next week. Let's leave the Azores to one side for now.

These uppers sure introduce Winter with a bit of a bang, brrrr

 

192-7UK.gif

No, not worried at all. I do say 'thankfully it's in FI'. It won't look like that at the time but FI can be good for trends of course. It's model output, though, and thought it worth commenting on. For newbies it's a great example of what cold fans don't want to be seeing for the next 3 months or so

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5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ens 6, 11, 13 please.👌

gensnh-6-1-192.png

gensnh-11-1-192.png

gensnh-13-1-192.png

that`s pretty much what I was `jesting` about earlier. 

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And the graph form is looking looking good . 909A5971-4B8A-4F09-83DC-998711F943B1.thumb.png.50018d091dcac92a592a0bd004108bf3.png

I’ve put in an order for P6 😎71A21FB0-7731-414B-9310-FA1F6A2B759C.thumb.png.9957bbe7697168194863b76d57de98f6.png817B6DDF-FB39-4145-962D-D2C987AE23AB.thumb.png.f443579ad68c78271db397a8b7b03a37.png

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28 minutes ago, LRD said:

No, not worried at all. I do say 'thankfully it's in FI'. It won't look like that at the time but FI can be good for trends of course. It's model output, though, and thought it worth commenting on. For newbies it's a great example of what cold fans don't want to be seeing for the next 3 months or so

Thanks for the reply and yes absolutely.. every chart is worth commenting on!

I'd actually go a bit further and actually say that - at this stage - my instinct is we will indeed see a bit of a Eurotrash push in after around D8-9 onwards - it's been hinted in the ensembles for a while and it wouldn't surprise me if that was to materialise but I won't be mentioning that word Eurotrash now until after the hopefully cold period beforehand. 🙂

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z Mean out to 120 sees a better ridge profile in atlantic so im going to push the boat out & go for x3 -10 runs into EA at around 192

Close enough for me, Steve!:oldgood:t850Suffolk.png

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So Ensemble watch getting exciting now as I have introduced the 'deep cold' circle today ( sub -7c ) & that is tracking SSW with each run....

E912156B-9558-4AB4-9385-7270F60002B7.thumb.jpeg.d30415a7171fedd648fbc54f7bba127a.jpeg

02EEAD1F-B266-4C82-AAFE-857A5A94599A.thumb.jpeg.68b90e04308c9f8f36280e8cccd633f9.jpeg

A82218FB-AB11-4066-BBEC-877C85C84B02.thumb.jpeg.c5085104b68e4f1f226cc336781cb197.jpeg

2CF1593D-8F37-40B0-B7DA-1B971C2AB28C.thumb.jpeg.67cfacb3d0ee34a0d5057e9973770e89.jpeg

 

8D4984B2-C90B-4AAF-A152-C9CAF0E9DAC5.thumb.jpeg.5c57ce51330b2fa6b91f0e4a5993d360.jpeg

5F5CA836-7026-4042-B479-EFD98A3B3DFF.thumb.jpeg.40fd9c1734580d2ad09c43913f17c064.jpeg

If the trend continues then this evenings runs could be booomage!!!!!after looking at the gfs 06z ensembles am really looking forward to this evenings 12zs!!!hopefully i aint jinxed it!!

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

If the trend continues then this evenings runs could be booomage!!!!!after looking at the gfs 06z ensembles am really looking forward to this evenings 12zs!!!hopefully i aint jinxed it!!

Sometimes shaky, I wish we could go back to the Good Old Days, when we'd know a colder shot was coming, but had not the foggiest idea, as to how long it might last...?

IMO, NWPMs are ruining part of the fun!:cray::oldgrin:

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Longer term I still see the trend towards a strengthening vortex to our north, the mean clearly shows the vortex rebuilding over western Canada/Greenland area on both GEFS and the ECM ens, my personal view is any cold will be from transient ridging, nothing sustained. Personally I like the idea of the high building over us, be nice to have a bit of dry seasonal weather.

574CE3B5-E0BB-4205-8A02-7E48AD799086.png

F2339654-6044-4F2C-BE66-5393F30E90F9.png

Edited by Weathizard

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17 minutes ago, shaky said:

If the trend continues then this evenings runs could be booomage!!!!!after looking at the gfs 06z ensembles am really looking forward to this evenings 12zs!!!hopefully i aint jinxed it!!

I suppose it`s all down to what starting data Steve puts into it.

Edited by Stuie W

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Afternoon 🙂

Here's a few glances at the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf below.. 👇

GFS..

Tonight.. 👇

IMG_20191124_123628.thumb.jpg.639b8d9916b0a6f56618ac3f981eaff9.jpg

IMG_20191124_123659.thumb.jpg.043ec90e2469509095cf217559fb82e8.jpg

Tomorrow midday 👇

IMG_20191124_123752.thumb.jpg.5dd0a8b7682d3c03ab56b0c0fde9e21b.jpg

IMG_20191124_123823.thumb.jpg.03b75e725cd9232e985f8ec4dd39941c.jpg

Wednesday morning.. 👇

IMG_20191124_123929.thumb.jpg.9ea36f16ba017bc4da9cd9feaa83e96f.jpg

You can see what was tropical storm Sebastien out in the Atlantic this is shown to deepen and eventually merge with another area of low pressure.  This then pushes across England and Wales as a fairly deep low pressure system this extra moisture from Sebastien will enhance rainfall for tuesday night into Wednesday for much of southern England and western parts too potentially very windy with gales for the channel.

Ecmwf take on remnants of Sebastien..👇

IMG_20191124_124026.thumb.jpg.2917db6277ac12759c1ab16cd6f11c14.jpg

Gem.. 👇

1343363273_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_72(1).thumb.jpg.e2f2a8931df1f765a428aa2ea3bef9a8.jpg

Now Further ahead.. 

GFS.. 

Sunday 1st..👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_162.thumb.jpg.7324030451a3c1c61f3024b837bb2c71.jpg

2nd...👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_192.thumb.jpg.c72007f6962e61203ff35de70361e1b8.jpg

3rd..👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_222.thumb.jpg.e5e7f9e76ce0744fc84b2c118cc54728.jpg

4th.. 👇

508000594_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(3).thumb.jpg.bcb972bc3e371b69332a045fd09bba21.jpg

Low pressure pushes southeast and brushes southern and southwestern UK on Saturday into Sunday. 

Then high pressure builds in for a time during the early part of next week but being put under pressure after a couple of days by the Atlantic.. 

Gem.. 

2nd..👇

16694644_EUROPE_PRMSL_192(1).thumb.jpg.651b6d182114dcc4e78f73b0d001d306.jpg

4th..👇

788878780_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(4).thumb.jpg.7f294e62abc1b247b7e00d328a1d1a4f.jpg

Gem shows high pressure stronger over southern UK keeping Atlantic fronts at bay early next week but days 7 to 10 milder but windy and wet for Scotland. 

Ecmwf.. 

1st..👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_168.thumb.jpg.2ad0adfc3ae3cd86293fa6039b4d4469.jpg

3rd..👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216.thumb.jpg.f99f4ca0dc082f21b13fb1dd9760cd99.jpg

4th..👇

468229296_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240(2).thumb.jpg.4dfdc21b581a07241de9dbf59ff0982b.jpg

Ecmwf makes this low pressure system next weekend into a much more significant feature with a delayed build of high pressure with a cold northerly feeding in eventually disturbances from the Atlantic push the high over the uk before flattening it off and turning milder. 

If we blend them all together this is what's shown after the weekend.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_204.thumb.jpg.b9e04fb8265e4772bfbb645e7fa3b76c.jpg

1493734601_EUROPE_PRMSL_222(1).thumb.jpg.f895570b6aed58bf2345240397217f93.jpg

860135921_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(5).thumb.jpg.9e49c1d3099a484a7178355d3696e8e7.jpg

This blend of all three show high pressure over the uk early next week then sitting over southern UK with Atlantic frontal systems effecting the Northwest milder too. Just a snapshot it will continually change as you'd expect. 

Will give a more detailed Gfs forecast in a little while. 🙂

Edited by jordan smith

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Some excellent posts in here as usual but one wonders how some find the time for posts that must take ages to do. Think my mrs would shoot me if I spent anymore time on here. Let’s just hope the next runs and so on upgrade the cold potential rather than all this choppy stuff

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