Model output discussion - late November

[Dancerwithwings]

Certainly one to keep an eye on Nick, if the time line falls right, rush hour weds morning could interesting.

 

[shaky]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z Mean out to 120 sees a better ridge profile in atlantic so im going to push the boat out & go for x3 -10 runs into EA at around 192

Steve take a look at latest control at 180 hours

[Mike Poole]

18 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is still trending milder longer term thanks to the azores high!!!..but of course  the majority don't want to read that!

 

Looking at the clusters at same time, it looks like the majority cluster is dominating the mean:

The second cluster is the cold one (which includes the op and control), and the third a bit of a mixture.  Lots of options in play this morning, but a positive signal for a cold start to December across the output.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

The clusters for t192 and 216 with the det charts for same Interesting that the latter are not a million miles from the second cluster which i suppose makes sense

I forgot the surface charts

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by knocker

[BARRY]

4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep. Thankfully it's in FI but this chart is a shocker

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

 

but that chart is so far in the future it has no chance of being remotely right

[StretfordEnd1996]

5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep. Thankfully it's in FI but this chart is a shocker

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

 

I wouldn't worry too much about this at this stage.

I mean if you're in the look out for cold weather, it's best not to but a downer on yourself by panicking about what may happen after a cold interlude which is what you've been wanting all along!

Yes, granted, the chances are this colder interlude will be nothing more than that - it's not going to be deep cold and substantial snow and it never was going to be. 

And it's looked the case for a good few days now that the Azores/Eurodog would come back in to play straight after (around 2-3rd December). 

If you're wanting cold, we've got a golden ticket back end of next week. Let's leave the Azores to one side for now.

These uppers sure introduce Winter with a bit of a bang, brrrr

 

[Methuselah]

As overall patterns go, the scrag-end of the GFS 06Z would be pretty useless, down here in the Triangle of Doom; but, for the Scottish Highlands...?

   

[LRD]

1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I wouldn't worry too much about this at this stage.

I mean if you're in the look out for cold weather, it's best not to but a downer on yourself by panicking about what may happen after a cold interlude which is what you've been wanting all along!

Yes, granted, the chances are this colder interlude will be nothing more than that - it's not going to be deep cold and substantial snow and it never was going to be. 

And it's looked the case for a good few days now that the Azores/Eurodog would come back in to play straight after (around 2-3rd December). 

If you're wanting cold, we've got a golden ticket back end of next week. Let's leave the Azores to one side for now.

These uppers sure introduce Winter with a bit of a bang, brrrr

 

No, not worried at all. I do say 'thankfully it's in FI'. It won't look like that at the time but FI can be good for trends of course. It's model output, though, and thought it worth commenting on. For newbies it's a great example of what cold fans don't want to be seeing for the next 3 months or so

[booferking]

Ens 6, 11, 13 please.

[ICE COLD]

I reckon the the GEFS suite are gonna be the best yet some real stonkers in there . 

[LRD]

06z Control run is interesting!

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 06Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

Although it ends badly

Edited November 24, 2019 by LRD

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ens 6, 11, 13 please.

that`s pretty much what I was `jesting` about earlier. 

[ICE COLD]

And the graph form is looking looking good . 

I’ve put in an order for P6

[StretfordEnd1996]

28 minutes ago, LRD said:

No, not worried at all. I do say 'thankfully it's in FI'. It won't look like that at the time but FI can be good for trends of course. It's model output, though, and thought it worth commenting on. For newbies it's a great example of what cold fans don't want to be seeing for the next 3 months or so

Thanks for the reply and yes absolutely.. every chart is worth commenting on!

I'd actually go a bit further and actually say that - at this stage - my instinct is we will indeed see a bit of a Eurotrash push in after around D8-9 onwards - it's been hinted in the ensembles for a while and it wouldn't surprise me if that was to materialise but I won't be mentioning that word Eurotrash now until after the hopefully cold period beforehand.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

06Z Mean out to 120 sees a better ridge profile in atlantic so im going to push the boat out & go for x3 -10 runs into EA at around 192

Close enough for me, Steve!

[SMU]

So Ensemble watch getting exciting now as I have introduced the 'deep cold' circle today ( sub -7c ) & that is tracking SSW with each run....

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Frosty.]

I agree with steve that there's plenty to be excited about.. If you're a coldie, certainly compared to recent days, today does seem to have upgraded cold potential and the milder signal seems to have been shunted back to deeper FI..i.e..beyond day 10!!

PS..admire Steve's input greatly!

Edited November 24, 2019 by JON SNOW

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So Ensemble watch getting exciting now as I have introduced the 'deep cold' circle today ( sub -7c ) & that is tracking SSW with each run....

 

If the trend continues then this evenings runs could be booomage!!!!!after looking at the gfs 06z ensembles am really looking forward to this evenings 12zs!!!hopefully i aint jinxed it!!

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

If the trend continues then this evenings runs could be booomage!!!!!after looking at the gfs 06z ensembles am really looking forward to this evenings 12zs!!!hopefully i aint jinxed it!!

Sometimes shaky, I wish we could go back to the Good Old Days, when we'd know a colder shot was coming, but had not the foggiest idea, as to how long it might last...?

IMO, NWPMs are ruining part of the fun!

[Weathizard]

Longer term I still see the trend towards a strengthening vortex to our north, the mean clearly shows the vortex rebuilding over western Canada/Greenland area on both GEFS and the ECM ens, my personal view is any cold will be from transient ridging, nothing sustained. Personally I like the idea of the high building over us, be nice to have a bit of dry seasonal weather.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Weathizard

[Stuie]

17 minutes ago, shaky said:

If the trend continues then this evenings runs could be booomage!!!!!after looking at the gfs 06z ensembles am really looking forward to this evenings 12zs!!!hopefully i aint jinxed it!!

I suppose it`s all down to what starting data Steve puts into it.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Stuie W

[Jordan S]

Afternoon

Here's a few glances at the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf below..

GFS..

Tonight..

Tomorrow midday

Wednesday morning..

You can see what was tropical storm Sebastien out in the Atlantic this is shown to deepen and eventually merge with another area of low pressure.  This then pushes across England and Wales as a fairly deep low pressure system this extra moisture from Sebastien will enhance rainfall for tuesday night into Wednesday for much of southern England and western parts too potentially very windy with gales for the channel.

Ecmwf take on remnants of Sebastien..

Gem..

Now Further ahead.. 

GFS.. 

Sunday 1st..

2nd...

3rd..

4th..

Low pressure pushes southeast and brushes southern and southwestern UK on Saturday into Sunday. 

Then high pressure builds in for a time during the early part of next week but being put under pressure after a couple of days by the Atlantic.. 

Gem.. 

2nd..

4th..

Gem shows high pressure stronger over southern UK keeping Atlantic fronts at bay early next week but days 7 to 10 milder but windy and wet for Scotland. 

Ecmwf.. 

1st..

3rd..

4th..

Ecmwf makes this low pressure system next weekend into a much more significant feature with a delayed build of high pressure with a cold northerly feeding in eventually disturbances from the Atlantic push the high over the uk before flattening it off and turning milder. 

If we blend them all together this is what's shown after the weekend.. 

This blend of all three show high pressure over the uk early next week then sitting over southern UK with Atlantic frontal systems effecting the Northwest milder too. Just a snapshot it will continually change as you'd expect. 

Will give a more detailed Gfs forecast in a little while.

Edited November 24, 2019 by jordan smith

[legritter]

Hi gang ,well things are looking good if you like it colder and perhaps the chance of the white stuff in some locations. Indeed i am getting excited but at the same time trying to keep my feet on the ground .certainly is loads of charts these days compared to pre internet  , back in the 70s and 80s i used to buy fax charts from local weather centre, and even pop in for a look about and a chat .my uncle working for RAF  meteorologist, was a part of a team of forecasters who did a press release for the local paper about the 15th or 16th of January. There had been loads of people at Bristol zoo in temp of 16c .They said in their statement that it looked like any wintry weather was behind us , and this would help with rationing etc for the rest of winter. High pressure across us and to our south Had other Ideas BOOM Booom ,it all moved north ,the following 7 weeks were Snow snow more snow .it would be great to watch this type of event unfold today with the internet , well gang great posts again ,what a great bunch of CALM People we are  , a great team spirit cheers all .

 

[markw2680]

Some excellent posts in here as usual but one wonders how some find the time for posts that must take ages to do. Think my mrs would shoot me if I spent anymore time on here. Let’s just hope the next runs and so on upgrade the cold potential rather than all this choppy stuff

[legritter]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Some excellent posts in here as usual but one wonders how some find the time for posts that must take ages to do. Think my mrs would shoot me if I spent anymore time on here. Let’s just hope the next runs and so on upgrade the cold potential rather than all this choppy stuff

My beautifull late wife used to say to me  ,on that computer again ,stop dirtying the curtains, look in the morning when you wake up ,if you want to measure the snow take the dog out  ,but overall knew i was bonkers if snow was about ,i shall be behind the sofa tonight with the dog waiting for ECM ,cheers .