Model output discussion - late November

[SMU]

GFS trying to sneak through the back door with more amplification & cold without anyone noticing... Tut Tut...

Remember I said we wanted a wedge then the -8c isotherm would magically appear to the East of the UK...

The GFS nearly made it this time-

12z 198 V 18z 192

12 first...

[swfc]

At the 200 hour mark the 12and 18z GFS are  close match nhp wise

Edited November 23, 2019 by swfc

[ALL ABOARD]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

At the 200 hour mark the 12and 18z GFS are  close match nhp wise

Could it be that the latter stages of the models are reacting to the background signals that are causing the monlthys to ramp the atlantic up, but as we move closer other background signals are causing a southerly tracking jet and higher pressure to our north? 

It's been the story so far this autumn and if the monthly were to be believed we shouldnt be in a position were in fact heights are building towards Greenland. 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Maybe so....but it implies 18000 mile SW’lies

BFTP

This definition to me is correct?

So not true what you post BFTP

Zonal and meridional - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[Mike Poole]

Is FV3 finally going to go for it, or be continually reliant on those pesky ensembles?  GFS 18z T240:

It's all gone belly up by this point in the trop, 

But we need to watch both, and we're well into FI re the trop at this point....

[SMU]

Also watch the GFS trying to carve out that wedge into scandi now - All these little incremental movements appear if we review each run under the microscope.

**** Note the block appearing at 252 that is now feeding the continental air west all because of that wedge ***

12z first V 18z second

Edited November 23, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Jordan S]

So the GFS towards day 10 shows high pressure collapsing over the UK but with some pretty cold air for the east of the UK for a time dragged in by a low slipping southeast through southern England next weekend then the high slips to the southeast but having dragged cold air into it some much colder conditions for the near continent, milder conditions come back into the UK with a battle taking place after then with cold air over the near continent trying to edge westwards but with the increasingly disturbed Atlantic with weather systems trying to move into northwest Europe. That's extended range ofcourse. 

2nd..

3rd..

Freezing level.. 

Sunday 1st..

3rd..

Edited November 23, 2019 by jordan smith

[Tim Bland]

@Steve Murr What’s the best case scenario  here though? Isn’t it just a few wintry showers in the north east followed by the high toppling and then the next chase?  

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

@Steve Murr What’s the best case scenario  here though? Isn’t it just a few wintry showers in the north east followed by the high toppling and then the next chase?  

Best case initial Northerly -6 into the North that then slowly filters South

Ridge builds up towards Greeny forcing yet more cold SSW out of Scandi ( -8 Scotland & -6c over London ) >>>> Some snow showers

The ridge topples as a wedge over Scandi holding the cold over the UK in situ before pushing continental cold ~-8c back west with a few more snow showers ( maybe some frontal snow from atlantic as well )

A big leap of faith required at the very least Dec CET starts very cold !

Edited November 23, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Best case initial Northerly -6 into the North that then slowly filters South

Ridge builds up towards Greeny forcing yet more cold SSW out of Scandi ( -8 Scotland & -6c over London ) >>>> Some snow showers

The ridge topples as a wedge over Scandi holding the cold over the UK in situ before pushing continental cold ~-8c back west with a few more snow showers ( maybe some frontal snow from atlantic as well )

A big leap of faith required at the very least Dec CET starts very cold !

Wow...and you honestly believe this is possible? I just can’t see it ..what odds would you put on the above ?  I’ve looked at every output today..Even the likes of JMA and NAVGEM and no model shows that. I don’t think there are even any ensemble members are there?

Edited November 23, 2019 by Tim Bland

[LRD]

Scandinavian High in FI

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 18Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 18Z

It does seem that, despite how unfavourable (for cold) things get to the north and north-west in the longer range, the models seem to (fairly regularly) still find some way to not being especially mild. As I said earlier, no freeze but certainly no blow torch. Scotland, NI and NW England could do well for wintry precipitation in early December

Scandi High does get pushed slightly east to Russia. Still cool, however

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 18Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

---

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 18Z

 

Edited November 23, 2019 by LRD

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wow...and you honestly believe this is possible? I just can’t see it ..what odds would you put on the above ?  

Need to see next 24 hours first  

I bet you theres a few like that in the 18z ENS

Edited November 23, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Jordan S]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wow...and you honestly believe this is possible? I just can’t see it ..what odds would you put on the above ?  I’ve looked at every output today..Even the likes of JMA and NAVGEM and no model shows that. I don’t think there are even any ensemble members are there?

That particular Gfs run does show wintry showers for the northeast of the country for a day or so but that's it. 

Edited November 23, 2019 by jordan smith

[SMU]

Try PTB 14

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Try PTB 14

I think even that is a few flurries in the Far East before the high slips over us ? 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Tim Bland

[SMU]

The first -10c run of the ENS for EA at just 204

Where did that come from

Edited November 23, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The first -10c run of the ENS for EA

Where did that come from

It last for 6hrs though Steve. 24hrs later it’s gone (see below). If this is the best out of 20 ensembles we are really clutching at straws. I love your optimism and passion on the hunt for cold but I really don’t see a flip back to what we saw 48hrs ago. I’d love you to quote me on this in the morning and prove me wrong! 

[Snowman.]

47 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

@Steve Murr What’s the best case scenario  here though? Isn’t it just a few wintry showers in the north east followed by the high toppling and then the next chase?  

A toppling ridge with enough altitude to get a Scandi high has definitely happened in the past and over the past day I personally saw it going there myself just always nervous to say anything here. One thing I have noticed is there being less power in the Atlantic as the GFS FI draws closer it seems to over model the power of it, but this has also been seen in the ECM so I’m not surprised. 
 

My personal head theory is the height rises NE after a toppling ridge but I have nothing to back but a few years of observation of the models. 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Snowman.

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It last for 6hrs though Steve. 24hrs later it’s gone (see below). If this is the best out of 20 ensembles we are really clutching at straws. I love your optimism and passion on the hunt for cold but I really don’t see a flip back to what we saw 48hrs ago. I’d love you to quote me on this in the morning and prove me wrong! 

No worries mate- remember poor resolution post 192

Let me convince you with GFS ENS watch covering 5 runs - wheres that blue circle going?

Classic GFS westward corrections....

last one is 18z 156 Mean

Edited November 23, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hum..

Not much to be said for the E C mean this evening...:(

EC mean is as flat as you'll see at day 10. Mirrors the seasonals to a tee.

Let's hope we see improvements in the coming days.

Edited November 23, 2019 by CreweCold

[Don]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

EC mean is as flat as you'll see at day 10. Mirrors the seasonals to a tee.

Let's hope we see improvements in the coming days.

Yes, nervy times that's for sure!

[Mike Poole]

Well it is utterly frenzied trying to make sense of this start to the start of winter!  Once again there are strat charts for the GEFS 18z suggesting a marmalised vortex:

 

What strikes me, and I won't reproduce the trop charts that everyone has posted, what strikes me is this - there are charts coming up on the models that I haven't seen before, the third one above an example.  I think we are with this winter so far into the never never that NOTHING is predictable about how it will unfold.  

Edited November 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS Westward correction full u-turn complete - Game set & match Murr!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS Westward correction full u-turn complete - Game set & match Murr!

Yes, GFS looks very seasonal as we head into Friday next week...and stays cold until monday with frosts widely by sat night.

UKMO looks very different at 144 though so yet again, no confidence on the way forward.

 

[northwestsnow]

Dew points monday morning on 00z GFS

Compared to 18z