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Model output discussion - late November

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9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Are you referring to the op/det runs?

or the reply to Knocker's post ^ because i can't see one on the anomaly chart he posted,i know that it's a broad-brush of all the ens and won't show it but it does look like a clean mid to upper Atlantic ridge to me.

Yes Si - 🙂

Knockers chart, i suspect the high in the Atlantic will be shoved towards the UK.

Of course i maybe wrong..

its there on 18z-

image.thumb.png.28bddea387cb5de1fa90f8294fe614f7.png

Edited by northwestsnow

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This looks a better run with the high ridging earlier and a lot further west

18z 156 v 12z 162

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.a62b87f4aa01c52b580b81d2e2e07243.pnggfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.eb41952129c19355a52318c3d685db96.png

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Si - 🙂

Knockers chart, i suspect the high in the Atlantic will be shoved towards the UK.

Of course i maybe wrong..

its there on 18z-

image.thumb.png.28bddea387cb5de1fa90f8294fe614f7.png

That low over Newfoundland isn’t moving much at 162, could be a decent ridge develop ahead of it on this run looking at it - and further West as mentioned above .

much better, is that a little trigger low near Iceland!! 

FF3164E6-53BD-449C-9E93-16FD4E3E09C4.png
At 192 it looks better still, keeping West so we should get a more portent northerly 

Edited by Ali1977

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Si - 🙂

Knockers chart, i suspect the high in the Atlantic will be shoved towards the UK.

image.thumb.png.28bddea387cb5de1fa90f8294fe614f7.png

Then topple. 
The MetO seem bullish on colder weather to approach us. So some hope to be upbeat. 
As I’ve stated before, Ignore the MetO at your peril. 
I’ve seen The ECM & the GFS promise the goods only for the MetO to have none of it. And they’ve been correct.. 

anyway, onto the GFS 18z and let’s see how many low pressure systems it can spew out across the Atlantic. Lol 

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This looks a better run with the high ridging earlier and a lot further west

18z 156 v 12z 162

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.a62b87f4aa01c52b580b81d2e2e07243.pnggfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.eb41952129c19355a52318c3d685db96.png

Good spot.

Looks a bit better in the Atlantic 🙂

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes Si - 🙂

Knockers chart, i suspect the high in the Atlantic will be shoved towards the UK.

Of course i maybe wrong..

its there on 18z-

image.thumb.png.28bddea387cb5de1fa90f8294fe614f7.png

The high seems to be further west in the Atlantic, a better run this.

gfseu-0-192.png

Edited by snowray

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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That low over Newfoundland isn’t moving much at 162, could be a decent ridge develop ahead of it on this run looking at it - and further West as mentioned above .

much better, is that a little trigger low near Iceland!! 

FF3164E6-53BD-449C-9E93-16FD4E3E09C4.png

Yes

it was there on the 12z but further east.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.4e9d6419563b0e725b8315bd64ecda87.pnggfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.a3e7676653223cb25362761ba7ac1981.png

and it pays us a visit at 210 with colder air tucking in behind it from the north.

gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.e30a662bcb53d00e5595224bfbdebe9c.pnggfsnh-1-210.thumb.png.1325223a80555f5add90dd9efcb34797.png

all a conjuncture at this range with all the chopping and changing early on but it's an upgrade to the 12z gfs.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

The high seems to be further west in the Atlantic, a better run this.

gfseu-0-192.png

I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..

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1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..

It will topple, but it’s a step back towards a better outcome for coldies - after the evening runs this is no bad thing!!!

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11 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..

Your correct.it has to topple with the energy not going up the west coast of greenland or SSE.needs a weakening around Greenland to allow heights to extend north

Edited by swfc

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7 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..

True, but small steps back in the right direction none the less. At least theres a chance of snow showers moving in now in the NE.

Never know, 00z might revert back to a big boom run, things are chopping and changing backwards and forwards.😉

gfseu-0-216.png

gfseu-1-216.png

gfseu-1-234.png

Edited by snowray

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6 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I could be wrong and probably will, Snowray. But just looking at that chart screams toppler..

Yes it looks like a toppler but not as much as previous run so a step in the right direction,it would certainly be a cold/fresh/clean few days with perhaps some wintry showers in the NE and night time frost's and not the zonal mush we normally see at this time of the year.

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18z GFS continues with the toppling scenario by day 10 which is already shown in the ECM/GFS 12z mean runs.

This has been the trend today since the 06gfs run raised the eyebrow this morning.We can see that some of the vortex is leaking back across the pole towards the Canadian side which is putting more pressure on the Greenland ridging.

Anyhow that's today's trend- tomorrow may be different wrt timings and the amount of ridging but those blues spreading back across the pole are scrubbing any Greenland heights.

Edited by phil nw.

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9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it looks like a toppler but not as much as previous run so a step in the right direction,it would certainly be a cold/fresh/clean few days with perhaps some wintry showers in the NE and night time frost's and not the zonal mush we normally see at this time of the year.

Yes a few snow showers around on this run even in the south, better than nothing, might get a slight covering in a few spots, all a long way off of course and plenty of time for potential "upgrades".😋

204-574UK.gif

210-574UK.gif

216-574UK.gif

Edited by snowray

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9 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

18z GFS continues with the toppling scenario by day 10 which is already shown in the ECM/GFS 12z mean runs.

This has been the trend today since the 06gfs run raised the eyebrow this morning.We can see that some of the vortex is leaking back across the pole towards the Canadian side which is putting more pressure on the Greenland ridging.

Anyhow that's today's trend- tomorrow may be different wrt timings and the amount of ridging but those blues spreading back across the pole are scrubbing any Greenland heights.

Good post and yes the lower areas of pressure are the problem.the high cannot push north even if it's further west.imo also there's a window of opportunity here before the nao moves towards neutral + moving into December with the PV moving up a gear

Edited by swfc

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23 minutes ago, swfc said:

Good post and yes the lower areas of pressure are the problem.the high cannot push north even if it's further west.imo also there's a window of opportunity here before the nao moves towards neutral + moving into December with the PV moving up a gear

Twitchy times for the start of winter!  Hope it's not another case of December recording a higher CET than the preceding November......

Edited by Don

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Lots of scatter on the 18z ensembles, this is for Northern England, lots of cold members in there.

graphe_ens3.gif

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13 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

We need to keep grounded for a while yet. This maybe a little sobering but compare the 00z gfs mean at day 10 with the 06z op for the same time. 

Screenshot_20191122-103652.png

Screenshot_20191122-103717.png

This has been the trend through today. It may change on tomorrow's runs but experience tells me otherwise. 

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12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This has been the trend through today. It may change on tomorrow's runs but experience tells me otherwise. 

Yes, we know where this generally goes!

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19 minutes ago, snowray said:

Lots of scatter on the 18z ensembles, this is for Northern England, lots of cold members in there.

graphe_ens3.gif

Yes and certainly a bit of an improvement that on the 6z suit 

Still think the cool down around the latter half of next week at this stage is just a mere cool down rather than a shot of cold (at this stage anyway)

Still time for change of course and a long way out still and I'm hoping for some good upgrades and some wintry precipitation appearing on some charts as we head towards next week 

Whichever way the GEFS ensembles that we've seen today I think all but confirm the HP that attempts to grow to our NW around that timeframe will topple through by around D8-10 but that was always the most obvious scenario in my opinion

Onwards we go to tomorrows models then.. set my alarm for 05:00 as it's that time of year now 😂

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UKMO has the ridge collapsing at 144, if the GFS follows I think the chance of this particular northerly being not much more than a day or 2s chilly weather rather than conducive of snow and harsh frosts!! Hope I’m wrong. 

204B5CEE-B223-4053-860F-68A5A4050DFB.png

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At 120 the GFS has better heights and a better flow from the north, so I reckon the outcome whatever it is will be better than what the UKMO would go on to show beyond 144

8AD6F84A-2A06-4DD9-B44A-A59515C6D52E.png
 

GFS also has things slightly further West, a positive thing and it’s a better run than the 00z

4B5C491A-8A0E-4AD6-A09E-598955C2F514.png

Edited by Ali1977

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Pretty cold at 144

2864C04B-E5C3-4478-8454-3C89977BC362.png

7FC84923-900E-47B6-8315-95D5D82D47F5.png

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GFS 00z looking cold as we head through next week...

image.thumb.png.0b0730a48dd5129640960ed7cdab13b6.png

By friday morning sub zero minima are back for many..

image.thumb.png.7d1a4af84b521c089d7a37034d1acdb8.png

And again saturday morning..

 

image.thumb.png.c19db868e6673036b5c3b481833acf91.png

And sunday morning..

image.thumb.png.0c5d03fb8e7f950cc5e0aeaee035f955.png

Should be nice and crisp and cold for christmas markets etc..

Fingers crossed..

The cold still evident by monday morning with temps close to or below freezing widely..

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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