Model output discussion - late November

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Decent ensembles   

Wow, wasn’t a cold outlier!! What location are these for please?

[weirpig]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Wow, wasn’t a cold outlier!! What location are these for please?

Sorry  Tim  Birmingham  area

[Paul]

Can we keep it to the models in here - particularly bearing in mind that political debate isn't allowed on here.

[Purga]

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off.

[Iceaxecrampon]

26 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Decent ensembles   

PPN looks flat for the 13th -  not so for this weekend.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off.

Yes, A foot and a half in one spot - beats 91 and close to 87.

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off.

Bit further northwest and that would be perfect! Although, I'm due to go to London on that Saturday and am slightly worried I might not be able to find the M4 lol.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The place is buzzing... I wonder why!! Some great 6Z ensembles for next week, infact there is cold air in place, or close by on many of the runs throughout the duration. Pretty exciting considering this time last year. Could this be the year when the jet remains punch drunk throughout the entire winter!! Perhaps low solar minimum overriding other global factors!! Even though its mere speculation, it ramains a possibility... Fab stuff. 

[Paul]

Latest blog from @Nick F

Cold & Snowy General Election Day Next Week? A Possibility According To The Weather Models... - Blog by Nick Finnis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Although it's still 9 days away, and subject to change, the weather models have have for several runs indicated a cold Election Day Thursday next week, even with a risk of snow.

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Bit further northwest and that would be perfect! Although, I'm due to go to London on that Saturday and am slightly worried I might not be able to find the M4 lol.

No need to worry!  on the next run it’ll be different again

[mhielte]

Yes I'm not fussed with precipitation charts at day 10, as these will change from run to run.

What is encouraging is that we seem to be upgrading the potential for cold and snow from run to run. As the saying goes, "get the cold in first..." 

Very curious as to what the 12z's will have in store for us later. Hoping the UKMO can improve from it's recent flat offerings as well.

[northwestsnow]

49 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off.

Its all about the jet digging as far south as possible- that chart is absolutely amazing for the SE and Scotland too.

FWIW that is a foot of snow in the SE next week.

London would grind to a halt for sure..

[stripeyfox]

well it sounds promising, even if not for my area but I've been disapointed too many times to get too hopeful.

My polling station is at my son's school so can look forward to the school being closed for snow, but the polling station open!

[weathergeek]

56 minutes ago, Purga said:

I think a few in the south would be a tad happy if this came off.

Yay, my Snow Dance worked!!!! One happy Surrey lass if this actually happened!!! Far out but at least it's nice to see something that gives SOME hope than dreary, zonal charts that give NO hope!!!❄❄x

[northwestsnow]

Of course we all know the cold stuff is still outside the reliable timeframe-

If we can get into slider territory as seen below then the game is on for coldies, we are still talking 168 (day 7) so need that to count down to day 4 or 5 to have good confidence,just another 3 days so if the charts are similar by thur i would expect some noises to be made in the media etc about a cold blast..

 

[stripeyfox]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Of course we all know the cold stuff is still outside the reliable timeframe-

If we can get into slider territory as seen below then the game is on for coldies, we are still talking 168 (day 7) so need that to count down to day 4 or 5 to have good confidence,just another 3 days so if the charts are similar by thur i would expect some noises to be made in the media etc about a cold blast..

 

Nathan Rao will be firing up his Apocolyptic thesaurus as we speak...

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

A tad surprised that a precipitation chart for over 9 days away is being talked about so much - but I guess most posters are seeing the funny side to it in that it is extremely likely to come off (though don't discount some decent snow down there the way its going, just not on that level)

More of importance to me is the other signals

Uppers look respectable for majority of next week as early as D6

Actually forgot that at this time of year the uppers can be perhaps a tad warmer to see snow so that's to our benefit

Means any precipitation falling at most times next week really could well be wintry in nature to some degree. And with the amount of lows around and how unstable the pattern looks - it is promising as of today.

Will the charts manage to last?

Here's hoping

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by StretfordEnd1996

[northwestsnow]

^^

Nice post, it is worth noting by mid Dec the sun is pretty much at its weakest.

Obviously there are many factors at play inc uppers but the very weak sun is a big positive, any snow cover and clear skies will see temps absolutely plummet in mid Dec.

Back to watching the 144-192 timeframe from behind the sofa then..

[Eskimo]

Terrific consistency between the models, probably the best I've seen at +240h!

GEM                                                        GFS                                                         ECM
 

 

 

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

^^

Nice post, it is worth noting by mid Dec the sun is pretty much at its weakest.

Obviously there are many factors at play inc uppers but the very weak sun is a big positive, any snow cover and clear skies will see temps absolutely plummet in mid Dec.

Back to watching the 144-192 timeframe from behind the sofa then..

Yes can get very cold but the seasonal lag effect means that the coldest conditions are likely and easier to be achieved in January

Anyway the Gfs seems to show *fairly* decent accumulations by day 10.

Do not take this at all seriously especially at day 10 It over does snow depths a great deal and presumably it assumes every flake settles and everything would be on the snow side of marginal for most of the time which Woudn't likely be the case well to the Gfs extent anyway. 

The low for around day 10 has shown a couple of times on the Gfs and Ecm. Tbh that's what's mostly contributed to those snow depths shown for southern England from the Gfs. But its a ways out so detail will definitely change by then. 

GFS.. 

Ecmwf.. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by jordan smith

[bluearmy]

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

It's loony chart season.

They're out there so it's fair game.

[johnwirral]

Interesting dates I wonder what impact snow would have on the General Election. 
 

GFS always seems to over do them, but it’s still a possibility.

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

You did'nt know the thread is full of snow zealots/ fanatics?

Edited December 3, 2019 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Thanks goodness we’re not getting carried away with wintry detail from op runs more than a week away ........

 

Do i detect a hint of sarcasm there? Rhetorical question i know.

EDIT : in your own inimitable (better use intellectual words) style!

Edited December 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard