Model output discussion - late November

[jules216]

First snowfall of the season arrived yesterday, it gave us a coating of 5cm. Our part of Europe is finally under some seasonal temperatures, long range suggests favorable conditions more to the west of Europe then here, through doesn´t look like traveling enough eastwards to lock us under deeper cold, better for UK,Scandi and western Europe. As I type outside temperature is -6.5C, not bad for a midday.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looking nice and snowy for Northamptonshire next Wednesday according to the GFS 6z run.

[IDO]

We must be heading towards a countdown now as the synoptic looks locked in for a blocked upstream:

The Arctic high and Pacific ridge look shut in, so we cut off the vortex to our NW. This slows the westerly flow, the 06z is 6h slower than the 0z. Prime conditions for Atlantic WAA to push north. Wedges towards Greenland and we get the cold upper air directed to the UK.

Looking promising...

Edited December 3, 2019 by IDO

[SMU]

New run >>> Same theme. Awsome outlook again especially for Northern areas & Scotland

England ( south ) a little more on the periphery...

 

[Tim Bland]

Some snow in the south from the sliding low  snow chances for everyone on this one! beautiful run! 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Tim Bland

[frosty ground]

That's a monster storm over Eastern Canada central pressure of 935mb

[SMU]

  

252

Edited December 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some snow in the south from the sliding low  snow chances for everyone on this one! beautiful run! 

Yep  i whisper this  just for fun  but the SE  gets a right dumping  at 252hrs   anyway thankfully  way in fi   so the army currently only on standby

[Tim Bland]

BOOM! 40cm central southern England widely 20cm+

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Tim Bland

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

  

252

 

Rare - a blizzard in the actual true definition of one for the SE

EDIT : and not marginal either - that 850-500 profile would mean snow.

Edited December 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Rare - a blizzard in the actual true definition of one for the SE

Lol thats some snowstorm 100mph winds and torrential snow..

Edited December 3, 2019 by booferking

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Bank!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 6z operational, next week looks cold / very cold and Friday 13th could be lucky for those under that purple blob!!!!!!!!!❄

[Anthony Burden]

These GFS charts if they verify,will be looking at something very special for U.K. in terms of very cold with 

lots of snow to boot.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BOOM! 40cm central southern England widely 20cm+

 

That’ll be the disruptive weather then.......  It’s about the where.  Incredible 06z, pity it’s the worst run

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That’ll be the disruptive weather then.......  It’s about the where.  Incredible 06z, pity it’s the worst run

 

BFTP

 

 

Note the ECM day 10 is almost identical !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Note the ECM day 10 is almost identical !

Indeed Steve, just being the Devil’s advocate 

 

BFTP

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yes absolute epic GFS 06Z

Lets get over this weekends deluge  - get the cold embedded in and a week off were in buisiness.

I've seen Friday the 13th Chart but not posting up - interesting -  but in cloud cookoo  - the SE will experience conditions more accustomed to the Gorms at 900m asl....!

 

 

[weirpig]

Decent continuity from the control  off course never going to be identical   at 240hrs  but the low is certainly in or around us. 

[Chesil View]

Repeat of Jan 1881 Friday week if GFS 06z is anywhere near the money.

[daz_4]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

First snowfall of the season arrived yesterday, it gave us a coating of 5cm. Our part of Europe is finally under some seasonal temperatures, long range suggests favorable conditions more to the west of Europe then here, through doesn´t look like traveling enough eastwards to lock us under deeper cold, better for UK,Scandi and western Europe. As I type outside temperature is -6.5C, not bad for a midday.

Yeah, pretty underwhelmed by the output for the CE. It will be unpleasant enough but the uppers are too weak to support anything wintry down here. Mountains will be alright I guess. 

[weirpig]

Decent ensembles   

Edited December 3, 2019 by weirpig

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Decent continuity from the control  off course never going to be identical   at 240hrs  but the low is certainly in or around us. 

looks a like a topple! but jeeze I think many of us would accept that outcome if the previous slides were also correct! - I've been thinking on election, which party might benefit in the event of some wintry weather - Labour I might suggest! with the city vote being less impacted less than Rural...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Welcome aboard mild winter 2019 / 2020

 

 

 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

looks a like a topple! but jeeze I think many of us would accept that outcome if the previous slides were also correct! - I've been thinking on election, which party might benefit in the event of some wintry weather - Labour I might suggest! with the city vote being less impacted less than Rural...

 

Yes the control  isnt the best compared to  some   there are some very frigid runs in the ensembles

Edited December 3, 2019 by weirpig