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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Slider looking good here for 174

Expecting more in the way of snow further south at 180 > -5c line over London...

TBF the 12z wasn't too shabby for the south with that runner, i know it didn't show in the snow depth charts but cannot help thinking there would have been more than that.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Just doesn't look as convincing to me around +210 but hey what am I to know

image.thumb.png.5b69835374ba07274220a4900b0f0e84.pngimage.thumb.png.eb263e0a71de7d900e22c9f7906818a9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame.

As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame.

As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess

It's not about Greenland heights this year, I'm almost sure of that, it's about euro troughs, just look at the animation in my post above, that is what will deliver snow this winter at least for the early part.  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

@pv to lower lats take two at 240(yes,day ten again lol),although the 850's are not as good but the NH profile is v similar

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.32101346a094127d336a212a2b51fdf5.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.ac224835903511aa181494173dc91dec.png

v happy with this,consistency. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Cold filters down eventually. Not quite as cold as the 12z but cold enough for marginal snow events and definitely at elevation further north. It’s facinating to see the PV so stretched and almost dropping over us! Stakes are high here for a major snow event ! 

85D689DA-4DB6-4F3A-8CCB-B02496C76209.png

4134E089-476D-4C8C-95E6-1E3BC54B1A42.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run. 

Bang on. When it comes to wedges and sliding lows in la la land it will change run to run. The theme is what is important not the detail as they can change even on the day!

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

@pv to lower lats take two at 240(yes,day ten again lol),although the 850's are not as good but the NH profile is v similar

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.32101346a094127d336a212a2b51fdf5.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.ac224835903511aa181494173dc91dec.png

v happy with this,consistency. 

 

 

Yep agree very much

12z and the 18z are in all similar to each other especially when its D6-10 we're concerned about

Whilst the uppers are a little less potent (importantly so, as on the whole they do take quite a good while to reach nationwide -5 uppers) they do get there eventually and as you said the overall pattern is somewhat similar

12z first

D7

image.thumb.png.4afd154ac1d3d2f936bc4aeb67077a22.pngimage.thumb.png.b43eda87639834f75bf5a326d6fc2202.png

By D10

image.thumb.png.b7d5cbae427e422b61459c90c24aefd2.png

In a way its just perhaps the proper head of the cold spell has been pushed back around 12-24 hours

 

But the rather mediocre cold uppers annoyed me a tad - we don't really get them by D10 (or beyond?)

image.thumb.png.897da54b332231134a82509f3edd821b.png

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

I wouldn’t worry too much about the uppers. In mid dec -5c will do. It snowed in Wales / Shropshere the other week with -3 uppers 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me any potential heights towards Greenland in FI look very flimsy. You simply couldn't be confident that these heights will remain as we move to a reliable time frame.

As for the ecm 240hrs I'm sure most of us know by now that the ecm has a habit of raising heights to our North at this timeframe. Coolish zonal is what I see in the 10 day frame. After this is anyone's guess

I think that you answered your own question there!

2 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Looks a variation on a theme to me and anyone getting caught up on the precise 850 temps on any given day or the location and intensity of precipitation at this range is undoubtedly going to be very frustrated looking at small differences from run to run. 

exactly

850's can change,ppn most certainly can change at very short notice,

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t worry too much about the uppers. In mid dec -5c will do. It snowed in Wales / Shropshere the other week with -3 uppers 

Absolutely - I'm not worried about them it'd just have been nice for me to go to bed knowing the charts were widely showing -5 and lower!

Marginal is the word I think we'd be looking for - but sometimes that makes it more exciting

On face value for me there's nothing wrong with this chart below  Indeed 18z shows some good charts and good setups prior to D10 - but hopefully in the next day or two we can really bring some of these lovely charts into the nearer timeframe?

image.thumb.png.949a9db5fc4cdf3f423f72d704db2ff6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

One thing we can say with some confidence is the Atlantic is coming back  after a 6 or 7 day holiday..

White or wet and where is impossible to pin down at the range considered-

GEFS look very good, hopefully the eps will be similar .

Always was NWS....but angle of attack and the very low 850s bearing in mind 3000miles of Ocean....impressive 

 

It WILL be cold....not mild

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I think the less said the better with regards to the EC weeklies updated this evening, seems to develop troughing in the Atlantic to our west from mid-month, though it does hint at higher heights over Scandinavia as the run goes on.

EC longer range never that reliable anyway, so lets not worry too much, at least the potential for a northerly later next week on cue to coincide with the General Election is still on track, that's the 4th consecutive GFS operational run now to show it with a fairly similar evolution and timing. Really need the jet to dive further south in the wake of this northerly than shown, so we don't get mild sectors pushing out the cold air to easily. But … one step at a time ...

Nick just wondering what type of features this Northerly setup could develop to get good chunk of Britain a band of organised heavy snow, a Dec 1990 probably out the question, so a channel runner or a slider look the best bet to me as convective showers probably would only benefit N Scotland and NE / NW coasts of Scotland and N half of England.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Last one from me, GEFS 18z T240, op run well supported by a significant number of the ensembles, we live in interesting times...

gens_panel_csl8.png

And nothing zonal about any of them...

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nick just wondering what type of features this Northerly setup could develop to get good chunk of Britain a band of organised heavy snow, a Dec 1990 probably out the question, so a channel runner or a slider look the best bet to me as convective showers probably would only benefit N Scotland and NE / NW coasts of Scotland and N half of England.

If high pressure doesn't build in too quickly, always potential for troughs or slider low in the cold N or NWly flow to bring more organised sleet/snow inland away from the usual windward or coastal areas which see showers in these arctic or polar flows. Then of course there is a southerly tracking jet near the south coast shown that could bring secondary lows along the south that may interact with cold air draining down from the north. Not saying these scenarios are on the cards, as too far off still to say we will even get a northerly, but highlights routes for wintry precipitation almost anywhere in such a setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Intensifying wave 1 in the latest GFS OP. Not bad espically towards the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t worry too much about the uppers. In mid dec -5c will do. It snowed in Wales / Shropshere the other week with -3 uppers 

Not necessarily, it isn't quite as clear cut as that other factors come into play with dewpoints and wet bulb temperature  just a couple of factors to take into account. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick glance at the EC weeklies update 25th December -8th January

25th -01

Salient points

Strong Alaskan ridge into the Arctic

two vortex lobes, north Russia with main lobe northern Canada with trough adjacent to-

Iceland/Greenland ridge

Strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic, abating in the east courtesy of ridging Scandinavia with positive anomalies and low pressure in the eastern Mediterranean.

With no trough to the east any flow around the Iceland/Greenland ridge has no significance for the UK

Temps a tad above average

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-7836800.thumb.png.91d07e73f89851b7f91fda894f43f2de.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-7836800.thumb.png.a04cfbc8768c8391948a93b815c116a1.png

01 -08 January

Some minor adjustment but nothing of any significance with temps still a tad above average

This pattern would suggest a leaning towards inclement weather graduating towards the north west

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-8441600.thumb.png.9cc7051f794da01667cec6e9c73abe9d.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-8441600.thumb.png.56aa06f673cdcbdb414dccfec13d90e3.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-8441600.thumb.png.949c30b6e1517e3380cb71ebc84c81b9.png

Hallelujah! praise the lord!

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Quite a contrast between UKMO and GFS 144 this morning. I would take a stab that UKMO is wrong here as ll the other output has been consistently showing some amplification including ECM

 

gfsnh-0-144.pngUN144-21.GIF?03-05

GFS good start getting plenty of cold air across the UK with a nice blob of heights heading for Greenland due tot he disrupting LP.

gfsnh-1-168.pnggfs-0-168.png

 

Looks superb at 180 with Atlantic amplification beginning and ready to link with Greenland heights and snow pushing up from the South

gfsnh-0-180.pnggfsnh-2-180.png

Edited by Mucka
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