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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That will just result in chilly rain, it’s hardly good. Anyway, Matt Hugo has tweeted a similar thought re the Canadian vortex. Worth watching, people on here seem to just dismiss things they don’t want to happen when realistically they have a good chance of materialising.

I said it looked OK! Was also paying attention to the more intense cold over scandy. We still appear to be on the colder side of the jet! And while that remains the case, there will always be a chance of a wintry suprise. 

Edited by Mapantz
Removed unnecessary dig
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That will just result in chilly rain, it’s hardly good. Anyway, Matt Hugo has tweeted a similar thought re the Canadian vortex. Worth watching, people on here seem to just dismiss things they don’t want to happen when realistically they have a good chance of materialising.

It's colder than the 0z so an increased risk of snow on hills and occasionally to lower levels, similar to today's update..some very encouraging output today if you don't like mild!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 mean shows no sign of heights around Greenland, so although decent over the U.K. the Op looks like a cold outlier. 

F1191D39-2C8A-4C69-9C65-B14502C4021C.png

That's not a bad mean Ali

you don't need Greenland heights if the Azures high is displaced west enough to allow for the pfj to dig south with systems running NW>SE plus it would not show wedges of heights

potato_wedges_v_watermarked.thumb.jpg.4fc3e71de8450b2cb6f4fc8d19b20d3f.jpg = 40274995434_26c9a12b59_b.thumb.jpg.6ffb25acb69f55def4aec0cec42febb0.jpg

ecm ens

London/my local,we could see these trending colder as we move on

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.d751c4dec3204b12c9c20d07f6a44325.png1067409343_graphe_ens3(1).thumb.png.b4958ec155832c72ed061d5b46fff585.png

18z coming up soon,i have my seat-belt on.

 

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo correction.
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

going by today’s output for 12 hours runs I think it will be a blend between GFS and ECM as long as we get cold air  this time of the year I think -5-8 will turn precipitation to snow unless there are mild sectors. ☺️ or am I talking rubbish.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets look at the 18z & see where we go tonight-

The 18z ICON is quite a way further west at 120 with the atlantic which is a good start

Sorry Steve but i do not see that,it looks further east to me,could you elaborate,cheers. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry Steve but i do not see that,it looks further east to me,could you elaborate,cheers. 

I think steve means around the uk!!there is defo slightly.more amplification and the low disrupting slightly further west of the uk compared to 12z!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry Steve but i do not see that,it looks further east to me,could you elaborate,cheers. 

Had these saved on my iPad, so here's the T120 v T126 from the 12z

image.thumb.jpg.63534c50a6753279875d704c7873474a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.baa9b1e172ca688260f8391d4f11f67b.jpg

Ridging at this point further west, what 200 miles?  But this run doesn't go any further.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
34 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

It's only the 'mean' run that he posted - this isn't an actual run or anything its just the mean of all ensemble members

'Chilly rain' would be the case if the whole of the country lay below 50m or so - but there are some hills too - many of them

As I said earlier I'd be extremely surprised if Scotland/Northern England hills at the very least don't see anything next week. 

All to play for

That’s fine, but the hills in the north of England and Scotland getting a dusting of snow isn’t really that noteworthy in winter, in the same way that 30c isn’t really noteworthy in London in July. Flip that round....and snow to low levels in the UK or seeing 30c+ in northern Scotland is noteworthy.

Anyway - that lump of vortex could yet help out. It might not. Let’s see where it goes!

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That’s fine, but the hills in the north of England and Scotland getting a dusting of snow isn’t really that noteworthy in winter, in the same way that 30c isn’t really noteworthy in London in July. Flip that round....and snow to low levels in the UK or seeing 30c+ in northern Scotland is noteworthy.

Anyway - that lump of vortex could yet help out. It might not. Let’s see where it goes!

Absolutely - 

My main point in my reply being it's the mean you're looking at. The mean does what it says on the tin - it isn't a 'run' and therefore its virtually impossible for it to come off in that identical way

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Had these on my iPad, so here's the T120 v T126 from the 12z

image.thumb.jpg.63534c50a6753279875d704c7873474a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.baa9b1e172ca688260f8391d4f11f67b.jpg

Ridging at this point further west, what 200 miles?  But this run doesn't go any further.

I was comparing the 18z 120 to the 123 12z,i see your point:olddoh:

i take that back.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its easier if you have meteociel open & flick across the numbers but here we go 18z first & alignment to Greenland & Iceland

18z First > look at the equidistance from Iceland V the 12z

C6228B77-BCD1-4153-BEC1-A35124889CAB.thumb.jpeg.8c072c0538a938f62a72ce3b09f7d75a.jpeg832CB50F-A00F-482C-98D7-5343DF245F06.thumb.jpeg.8046e798ecca10546875978ccd2257c5.jpeg

I did that and forgot about the 3hr intervals on icon and not 6,you learn by your mistakes and thanks for clarifying that up.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I did that and forgot about the 3hr intervals on icon and not 6,you learn by your mistakes and thanks for clarifying that up.

Yes - always remember to flick through two of those dots to get the same timeframe - a bit harder because you get a quick flash of the in between chart but you can still see the comparison.

1 dot for the GFS

ECM you cannot do it because its a 12 hour difference so you have to estimate it.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - always remember to flick through two of those dots to get the same timeframe - a bit harder because you get a quick flash of the in between chart but you can still see the comparison.

Just shows how hasty some folk can be :whistling:

by the way...

congrats on 17000 likes man

it would  be interesting to see if the 18z follows on from it's stella 12z run but i don't think it will,we shall see.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

First thoughts on pub run, here T114,  compared with GFS 12z and ECM 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.5b74b1b157c4cae5527702468ec6d94d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bafb1778e1626c05bdb1e09f1fd4257c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7b59df7207f910e5f2a6f03fc2c329a8.jpg

Think the new run is right in the middle so far...one thing to look out for though is the arctic high, stronger on ECM means the purple dumbells are further south than either GFS run, so there is more space for a ridge to push into, so on balance I think we are set for a cracker, popcorn please!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just shows how hasty some folk can get :whistling:

by the way...

congrats on 17000 likes man

it would  be interesting to see if the 18z follows on from it's stella 12z run but i don't think it will,we shall see.

 

HA - didn't notice - thanks although a bit embarrassing considering my posts are often one-liner cold chasing posts - anyway you have a better like to post ratio than me.

Anyway back to the models - So so EC46 but cannot really tell too much - slider potential week 3 with a Scandi high signal (weakish) for week 4 but one one hand it is more sceuro (although that might be a good SSW signal), and anyway it does also extend towards Greenland - really not sure what to make of that.

 

image.thumb.png.bb254226ba9d75080ee3ead7b62c5b83.png

image.thumb.png.082214c4449bc6d52e53808cce45c1a1.png

 

 

 

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

First thoughts on pub run, here T144, compared with GFS 12z and ECM 12z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.5b74b1b157c4cae5527702468ec6d94d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bafb1778e1626c05bdb1e09f1fd4257c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7b59df7207f910e5f2a6f03fc2c329a8.jpg

Think the new run is right in the middle so far...

114 Mike:whistling:

steady on,you are getting as bad as me lol

144 backed further west with the trough out of Newfoundland,more neg trough over the UK.

18z at 144 v 12z 150

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.58418b5d2473a91c94d1df7153337ebf.pnggfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.7b754a42cbf2df1632989ffab1d50814.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Small differences that could have bigger implications later down the run

12z-18z

image.thumb.png.cfc214fc7c841d3481a3584a8043ed9d.pngimage.thumb.png.276782db705e77426fe17281c1046f66.png

 

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Small differences that could have bigger implications at +174

12z-18z

image.thumb.png.cfc214fc7c841d3481a3584a8043ed9d.pngimage.thumb.png.276782db705e77426fe17281c1046f66.png

 

Yes, indeed, but you really need to view on NH to get the upstream too, here T192, vs T198 on 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.6c863e854fb93c12baa009793af81753.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ad099b761406ba722c86ba073098e391.jpg

Game on...

Edited by Mike Poole
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