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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
1 hour ago, jordan smith said:

I think this place was already in meltdown mode just 24hours ago. :pardon:

Good agreement between the Gfs, Gem and Ecmwf on low pressure moving back into the north of the UK on Thursday bringing wet and very windy weather to Scotland at first then through Friday and Saturday this spreads slowly south and east with a longer spell of rain for England and Wales.

GFS..

Thursday.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90.thumb.jpg.36535c6faeccc5f74f9b6b41e0425b2a.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_90.thumb.jpg.9b17802c25776bdee59c7327b85e506f.jpg

Gem..

287843454_EUROPE_PRMSL_90(1).thumb.jpg.7d1e5df8e1e6f4c29c8c53a56d734181.jpg

135189742_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90(1).thumb.jpg.29a77e5a6cd793f9059db20c3a1abdda.jpg

Ecmwf..

EUROPE_PRMSL_96.thumb.jpg.485816bdcbb61daeed6360ef6fe54ab4.jpg

GFS Wind gust chart for Thursday..

18_90_windvector_gust.thumb.png.df8130c6825fdb6fea9f403a42c2b993.png

18_93_windvector_gust.thumb.png.cbd1ab0dac8cfa5d6fc7a015a7bc3ed0.png

The weekend still looking very unsettled with the possibility of a deep low pressure system which was shown yesterday to still push southeast through or close to the UK into the north sea around the 8th or 9th with very windy weather and bands of rain sweeping through.. 

Gfs..

EUROPE_PRMSL_156.thumb.jpg.8eba16a543878d9e69afa1bf21c3b10b.jpg

864141060_EUROPE_PRMSL_168(2).thumb.jpg.7dca9ea2e6165e2665e65d01a953d9fc.jpg

2132554199_EUROPE_PRMSL_174(1).thumb.jpg.0da65d2afa2c8a6a5d9c2eb568c24fb0.jpg

Gem..

353027034_EUROPE_PRMSL_186(2).thumb.jpg.b892502835689143ba8ed81fc16ca57f.jpg

It isn't likely to be particularly mild either and indeed the ECM has more in the way of wintriness to the showers come the weekend on a brisk northwesterly flow. Into next week most models keep things unsettled and rather cold upto atleast days 9/10.. 

GFS.. 

32823593_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(1).thumb.jpg.9238a1559a7408336e99d0d2e0c24eb0.jpg

Wet and very windy but a mild south-westerly for a time. 

Gem.. 

1245321596_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(2).thumb.jpg.fe226d011602560a49b8f45cb1cc60c4.jpg

Unsettled but rather cold with a long fetch northwesterly wind. 

Putting the Ecmwf Gem and Gfs output together it paints an unsettled picture with spells of rain and potentially stormy weather if any lows form in the flow early next week.. 

59185608_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(3).thumb.jpg.96f27ac36c6dfb97c47f7f8090395c96.jpg

Another look at the jet stream forecast from the gfs for early and mid next week.. 

1196633456_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_204(1).thumb.jpg.5532176ecd352b70028ede1738438cc1.jpg

742279708_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_156(1).thumb.jpg.a5c71386f0d17e37ea2794f49d71b35c.jpg

A strong jet stream shown with the potential for a few deep lows moving close to or over the UK bringing perhaps a stormier period after the weekend, but still a ways out and will be keeping a close eye on this in the coming days.

,, Great anylis as usual But do you like the rain by any chance I beg to differ

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Eye candy going to start to be shown again on GFS Arctic high back in the game this morning.

gfsnh-0-210.png

Going to be an epic FI I reckon 

F38479C3-0B1A-4692-8443-0E2E76CF2C5F.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

What a chart, I imagine under any snow cover there would be night temps well below -10 here. 

176DDF73-5CF1-49DC-9C9D-09E1D3314774.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

But the temporary resurgence of the ridge is soon swept aside and after a transient ridge on Saturday the next frontal system sweeps through bringing some heavy rain and strong winds follower by waves forming on the front.

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5763200.thumb.png.d2b7f0a4da35d02e69bc24496f65deb4.png144.thumb.png.58ae77ca71232d8435aa997e6978680c.png168.thumb.png.43a4c0af7b3847bd6b7b24c060c01c5b.png

And quickly followed by another system driven east on the jet but considering the somewhat weird upstream amplification best left here.  All according to the gfs

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-5936000.thumb.png.e2ec014d469ae4d33062f3d3fe498b3a.png192.thumb.png.26863d61b4d78621c499630b0215ed04.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

By now I suspect everyone is familiar with NH pattern vis the ext anomalies and there is little change with the GEFS this morning

Still the Aleutian trough/ridge/vortex combination upstream with a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic to the trough north of the UK and a negatively anomalous Europe

Thus unsettled with temps varying around the average but with the usual caveats regarding day to day and regional variations of the detail as systems track east, and which is of course where the det runs come in

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.4a1f9807e1abf4554e20a159aefe2681.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.e012d920afce3465b68c166a66fc2ad4.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.6f7d67970f4c6c2ed5778e1d468bce22.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

I like these examples of where we maybe heading. Gfs quicker than ecm but going down a similar route. IF we can get near to this then some fun down line but can we get to this point? Or something similar. Output at the start of this winter has been and is fascinating.

Beautiful crisp morning.

131D1C9D-454F-44BD-BFAE-26D45B8E59FE.png

FE54A755-7A50-4162-ACA7-FE6A6CB3C9D6.png

5A95DDAE-6C90-4513-B4CF-933ED73BE336.jpeg

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Would you believe this? Election Day could be snow chaos. Okay maybe that's an exaggeration and it's still 10 days away but this keeps popping up in the runs.

2057706783_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_07_50.thumb.png.2175579b2a92e756dfe95a7b58098a77.png

247881981_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_08_12.thumb.png.66a5222c0a8d553292e46034973f9e9f.png

1849235746_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_08_37.thumb.png.fc6b2b9802f98f18d803ab4e9466510d.png

2071838835_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_08_44.thumb.png.daaa86cc0c2b1107d7e5ca84c18bb7cd.png

48322697_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_09_10.thumb.png.2c843e2d9e8e5d2db9cfe185c07b7817.png

1992732276_Screenshot2019-12-02at07_09_18.thumb.png.bc3def2d6d56c208644e76108601f566.png

 

Yes what a terribly ironic twist of fate. The only day we really don't want to see widespread snow. I was hoping for a cool, clear and frosty election with minimal disruption so everyone can get out and vote safely. Perils of having a December election I guess... 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

No real change since Friday when I was reasonably confident of the overall medium range long-wave pattern. The cooler weather followed by some quasi-zonal spell till about T120 when we see ripples of mini-ridges in the westerly flow. These may or may not send warmth to higher latitudes for wedges to form. At the same time we have the trop vortex to our NW restocked from the NH upper flow allowing the vortex chunk to slide SE into the sc/euro trough.

The models are chopping and changing the energy in the NH so each run varies on this theme. On the 0z op run (little support on GEFS) we have better wedges from the Atlantic mini-ridges and a better Pacific ridge that enables that Pa/wedge to direct over the Arctic region. We seem to be getting the best case scenario again on the 0z run from the GFS. No doubt it will be different again until that eureka moment when it all fits into place.

D0-D8anim_xos9.gif D9-D16anim_wyh4.gif

So we are still in with a chance of getting cold from this upcoming pattern change if it verifies. But all sorts of shades of that remain possible so a case of wait and see. ECM also cycling through the possible scenarios inter-runs so also waiting for consistency there.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I will keep the waffle vis the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning to a minimum because it's getting repetitive and boring. Suffice it to say a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic to a negatively anomalous Europe, particularly the UK with the trough to the north east of the latter, Portending unsettled with temps below average but with the usual caveats

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.80097866fc0c0f386ed8db0c9ce0dc9b.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6454400.thumb.png.13da379b81bb23a6ef77a473bb646aa8.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6432800.thumb.png.200eb27203392729e731d7b470be9d20.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

What a chart, I imagine under any snow cover there would be night temps well below -10 here. 

176DDF73-5CF1-49DC-9C9D-09E1D3314774.png

Could you please say what date these images are for if you're using a phone and are only going to use screenshots? Whilst it says December it could be any day between now and the 18th

Phone users can also tap and hold the image for a few seconds which allows you can save it to your phone and upload the entire chart

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean I think unsettled and rather cold sums it up, I would think cold enough at times for snow across northern hills and occasionally to lower levels, the same applies to the GEFS 0z mean!

EDM1-216.thumb.gif.2e47f3b8538dc6143e9e4bfc4c8a51ec.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.4ee2b17d899dea13ece961db4ddd5745.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.01a499f6de6b797ca6f7ac8b594ace88.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
On 01/12/2019 at 07:10, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

@DiagonalRedLine can you make this thread disappear from about 23:00 until 05:00 every day please?  What a load of waffle! 

Currently -4c outside...lovely first day of Meteorological Winter ahead. 

Latest ECM

anim_nuo7.gif
 

Morning @Mr Frost

Think I’ll have to if we see a lot of naughty behaviour in here. And worse, I’ll tell Santa to get the naughty ones lumps of coal for Christmas

So you better watch out and stay on topic guys (don’t follow my example of going off topic.... ), otherwise you’ll know what will happen. :spiteful:

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

 

GFS 06Z

Well Well - Winter arrives albeit 10 Days off.

Scandi and Icelandic LP jouining and opening the floodgates.

PPN mainly on all the usual suspects maybe favourable at 300 to 400ft asl Cumbria?

h500slp.thumb.png.58111fb4c2d24e1deb36c2bfaf281050.pnguksnowrisk.thumb.png.c2d9cfef9df07839c689ea8afb8fd807.png

*BANK*

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Think that’s the GFS 00Z run. 06Z run still coming out  

Quite a pretty chart though. One of these days, a chart like that with a trough of very low UK/Eastern UK and Scandinavian Heights will hopefully make it down to 00 hours... in one piece (for those who like the chilly and wintry conditions :). Although, to be fair, a day like today where a cold High Pressure is delivering some white, sparkling, frost in places, particularly across the South, could count as one of the forms of wintry weather).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Looking at the 6z out to 204, it's a messy old chart.  But, looking pretty stacked with 'potential' with cold uppers approaching from the north and high pressure building to the west of Iceland.

image.thumb.png.d1d5637ad2a461325380b1c2c1592266.pngimage.thumb.png.45e046084de3b1bea7b416f5ef0d0b63.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

we need stronger heights to the North or it will all collapse and low pressure will barrel thorough

Edited by SLEETY
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