Model output discussion - late November

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

 

Not sure why sl4 post is there 

 

still think fi is at t120 plus

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just catching up  - 12Z GFS

Good Lord

[knocker]

I've already posted on next weekend with the gfs so suffice it to say that the ecm is also looking at a wet and very windy interlude

[Skullzrulerz]

17 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Just catching up  - 12Z GFS

Good Lord

It's looks like someone decided to throw the "polar vortex at us"

[Mike Poole]

The ridge has collapsed by T240 on ECM:

A few things to note, based on this chart and 12z suite as a whole:

• Displacement west of Azores high, as above and on similar GEM chart I posted earlier.
• Trough into Europe, inc Southern Europe on ECM.
• Arctic high, not everyone's cup of tea, obvious from comments, but it promotes -AO and that in turn is friends with the -NAO about 70% of the time, I think.  Be better if it was over our side of the NH though, I concede that.
• I STILL think a strong jet, but deflected to the south of us will prevail.  That isn't a big freeze winter of the past, but it could, with meridional component due to solar minimum added, it could bring some significant snowfalls for many, and who cares if they are marginal, more fun analysing it on here!  
• The strat is also looking interesting ...and that could be a game changer, what I've written above is about the current game!

We....will.....see...

Edited December 1, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Duane S.]

40 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

I don't need to spin any thing, it was not the Arctic high that had ANY influence over the 1987 cold spell, for some reason I cannot post the archives I'm unsure why on here ....PM me if you want to discuss it but 1987 was not a result of a marauding Arctic high..far from it...

Here you go. I actually think that the Europe maps gives the best viewpoint of it as well. I genuinely don’t think you will find many better examples of an Arctic High giving us a cold spell...

Sure the ridging AH played its part, but that Arctic High was the star of the show.

[Anthony Burden]

 Looking at mostly single figures for my part of the world for the next 10 days with a short period of 2 or 3 days of

double figures .

[Duane S.]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The ridge has collapsed by T240 on ECM:

A few things to note, based on this chart and 12z suite as a whole:

• Displacement west of Azores high, as above and on similar GEM chart I posted earlier.
• Trough into Europe, inc Southern Europe on ECM.
• Arctic high, not everyone's cup of tea, obvious from comments, but it promotes -AO and that in turn is friends with the -NAO about 70% of the time, I think.  Be better if it was over our side of the NH though, I concede that.
• I STILL think a strong jet, but deflected to the south of us will prevail.  That isn't a big freeze winter of the past, but it could, with meridional component due to solar minimum added, it could bring some significant snowfalls for many, and who cares if they are marginal.
• The strat is also looking interesting ...

We....will.....see...

Good post Mike, summed up very well.

I don’t think ECM is bad and pretty much par for the course as I still reckon the real interest is just out of its range. So like you say, we will indeed see

[sorepaw1]

It's getting a bit messy this thread tonight. 

I'm struggling to understand some of the posts and relevance 

A picture of a chart with a 2 word description that's not helping me and others understand 

And the handbag swinging .

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

It's getting a bit messy this thread tonight. 

I'm struggling to understand some of the posts and relevance 

A picture of a chart with a 2 word description that's not helping me and others understand 

And the handbag swinging .

 

Always the same in this thread at this time of year when emotions run high! 

[Norrance]

Time to get back on topic. Discuss the current charts and evidence your comments please. Cut out the bickering and one liners or posts will go.

[Methuselah]

Oh well, the GFS 12Z operational was about as representative a sample, of the run as a whole.

   

   

Breathe in, breathe out...aaaand relax?

Edited December 1, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Political comment removed.

[northwestsnow]

Well as much as i enjoy a ramp, there really is not much to ramp about this evening.

The current cold dry spell will be replaced by a pretty rampant Atlantic by the end of the week -maybe a bit sooner in the NW.

Hopefully it won't be a drawn out unsettled phase,it won't be mild, but it won't be cold enough for snow for the majority IMO-

I think i'm right in saying zonal winds are due to spike in around a weeks time and then slow down again thereafter.

With AAM on the rise (unless the forecast has changed today) and low solar min/strat warming ongoing , hopefully we can dig a cold pattern out for the run up to Christmas.

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean at T192 and T240:

Lots of support for the op on the first, but on both, and for a while, I am struck by the wave-3 thing in the trop, looking around the NH, there are three distinct troughs at 500 mb level just circulating the globe anticlockwise in this run, ECM mean GIF

That, to me, does not suggest a happy trop vortex, especially in 10 days time. All to play for!!  Or, does not suggest, for the record, anything 'zonal'.

Edited December 1, 2019 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

ECM mean just updated 

very good support for operational all the way out- also slightly less progressive at 240-

Heres 192 with plenty of cold on offer.

 

[knocker]

The are some differences regarding the ext EPS mean anomaly and the GEFS, albeit nothing massive, basically involving the structure and amplification of the upstream Aleutian low/ridge/arctic high cell and Canadian vortex.and this is reflected somewhat in the downstream  ridging into east Greenland and the position of the European trough

The bottom line is that this still results in a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard  but this abates somewhat in the east courtesy of more influence from the ridge and position of the trough which perhaps allows more influx of colder air with the temps over the UK below average. Obviously any differences in the pattern will need sorting before anything like definitive emerges but still looking at unsettled with the usual caveats

[tight isobar]

Still plenty to get the proverbial teeth into.

With ample room for both PM shots...and even possible arctic outbreak..

As resolve and diagnostics are still of deciphering in our maritime realms!.

 

A true pull back and await from around 9/10december..

With momentum of minimum alignment via both waa and pressure points are resolved..

 

Spreads are also of want and wait...

But any notable mild is certainly off the table...

So cool at least...with again amicable shout for some more notable changes in the hunt for more talkative COLD exactions!!!=

 

Please transfer in whatever launguage you want to view this post in also!!!

 

And calm down...It's only December the 1st..

Edited December 1, 2019 by tight isobar

[Djdazzle]

Very little to suggest anything other than average or slightly below. As usual, any promise is in the depths of FI.

It will be the last third of December at the earliest, barring something cropping up at short notice.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm happy with the overall pattern with tonight's ECM mean, we keep a generally cold theme moving forward... At least the ECM stays more consistent compared to the GFS. 

[knocker]

NOAA in the same ball park as the EPS

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

The ridge has collapsed by T240 on ECM:

A few things to note, based on this chart and 12z suite as a whole:

• Displacement west of Azores high, as above and on similar GEM chart I posted earlier.
• Trough into Europe, inc Southern Europe on ECM.
• Arctic high, not everyone's cup of tea, obvious from comments, but it promotes -AO and that in turn is friends with the -NAO about 70% of the time, I think.  Be better if it was over our side of the NH though, I concede that.
• I STILL think a strong jet, but deflected to the south of us will prevail.  That isn't a big freeze winter of the past, but it could, with meridional component due to solar minimum added, it could bring some significant snowfalls for many, and who cares if they are marginal, more fun analysing it on here!  
• The strat is also looking interesting ...and that could be a game changer, what I've written above is about the current game!

We....will.....see...

Completely agree with that and I for one would be over the moon with marginal snowfall that’s heavy and disruptive and is gone couple of days later. Repeat and repeat.

at least we ent looking at our normal December prospects at least at the moment.

also would like something like this image to actually happen, that would be pretty exciting I’d say

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Completely agree with that and I for one would be over the moon with marginal snowfall that’s heavy and disruptive and is gone couple of days later. Repeat and repeat.

at least we ent looking at our normal December prospects at least at the moment.

also would like something like this image to actually happen, that would be pretty exciting I’d say

A great snap this early in proceedings..

With a MLB..and a notable outbreak...as per-mentioned...we'd have given our grandmothers away in many times past for such synoptics this early on....let alone it coming to fruition!!!!

 

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

As per yesterday still some large differences between the ECM and the GFS at +192

Maybe not 'large' differences but as ever with our country, the exact position of any ridge of HP will determine whether it's cold or not

ECM has it far west enough to bring in something much colder from the North

GFS has it to far east 

Other than that ridge the rest of the two charts really ARE similar.. it's just us, and our unpredictable British weather

Fine margins 

[bluearmy]

4 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The updated GEM at 186 note the shape of the jet diving south & NE in the atlantic

Thats X2 models that leave residual heights east of Iceland

@bluearmy

That’s the main difference in the extended eps wrt the 00z run ..... in the 9/14 day period more sign that wedges will deflect lows further south though the mean low anomoly at day 15 is still to our sw with an Atlantic trough establishing.... slight improvement on the 00z run but only run to run variation 

Edited December 1, 2019 by bluearmy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

T

With 850s at -24 widely one has to ask where this very warm anomaly over vast swathes of Russia comes from?

 

BFTP