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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Are the models backing away from the Arctic high having as much influence ?..

Beginning to look that way.

 

Indeed. Zilch this side of T+240 and what looks like a very wet and miserable run after Weds next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I haven't really noticed that but the 12z runs often are better, more amplified than the 0z (and of course the  gfs 18z pub run is often just wild) 

Yes, would agree with that, what's interesting though is that for all models, the verifications are the same, or the difference is statistically insignificant, so two possibilities remain, either the 0z are more zonal and the 12z more amplified by about the same amount so as to cancel out in the verification stats, or it is some kind of cognitive bias on our part? 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Awesome ecm 192 chart 

83651291-C17C-44D8-A85E-9A96ACC23E1D.png

Yep - Corker - still debating whether to change my Dec CET before midinght.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, knocker said:

The ecm also looking quite windy and unsettled with the phasing of the Pm and Tm air

T

And cold by 240 i would think.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T216, compared with GEM at same time, ECM first:

image.thumb.jpg.39506174493a3c884eea56d2a97db852.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.66dc4733a9839872c33d5623f879dcd2.jpg

You could see it on the previous chart the better chance for WAA into the Greenland area.   Bodes well for Election Day!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep - Corker - still debating whether to change my Dec CET before midinght.

I’m glad i went so low on CET,if this ecm run is on the money.

 

BOOM!

5A0E5118-5DE4-4F23-B306-D7D29848D689.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Good lord, that escalated quickly.  

image.thumb.png.c6e76e56e7ed66cef80b5eef51ce835f.pngimage.thumb.png.d8068061041d6c51bac106c3c10aea3e.png  

Would be nice if true, but I for one won't be holding my breath on that!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e5ce8725c0736d7e693885abe1902c29.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6ea1c9ca71ba8b5d6afb87565f109cda.jpg

Again, I think it is a wedge rather than a true block, similar to GFS 0z?  but it is something we may get used to seeing through December and as the air gets colder and colder, such a pattern could lead to some decent snowfalls....

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Well documented over years of model watching...Ecm is a poor 2nd to Gfs when it comes to modeling Greenland and jet profiles in that area.

I here this year in year out but still I see no proof ? Not saying it doesn’t but ...... 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e5ce8725c0736d7e693885abe1902c29.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6ea1c9ca71ba8b5d6afb87565f109cda.jpg

So let me get this right, ECM similar (closer at least) to GFS this morning... A little bewildering for the newcomer... 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep - Corker - still debating whether to change my Dec CET before midinght.

Aye for knock, screams rain

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye for knock, screams rain

I think he was being sarcastic...it would Be rain with snow on the back edge before colder air sets in 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

The ec op is simply hopping around clusters .......

Yes true, how many members have jumped towards the cold  cluster or the other way will be more enlightening.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Indeed sir!

image.thumb.png.186b260026ccf38e127760168ed11bfc.png

Yes I'm absolutely gobsmacked that a low tracking west > east brings heavy rain and strong winds before a transient northerly. Whatever next out in the unreliable 8)

228.thumb.png.0791eb12719d072a7e972bc7528e9ca0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Griff said:

So let me get this right, ECM similar (closer at least) to GFS this morning... A little bewildering for the newcomer... 

Yes, I think so, and weirdly was just editing my previous post to suggest similar to GFS 0z, when you posted that!  So it is definitely a solution that is in the mix, but so too are others given the uncertainty at that day 10 range.

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