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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Some mouth watering ensembles from the GFS 6Z... If your of the cold persuasion that is... Lovely jubily. 

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dpqI3SM.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Some mouth watering ensembles from the GFS 6Z... If your of the cold persuasion that is... Lovely jubily. 

 

If only those charts were for tomorrow and the coming week!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
1 hour ago, Don said:

If only those charts were for tomorrow and the coming week!

Agreed, 144hr at most or it might as well be a colourful chart drawn by my 9yr old 

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

if you’re looking at specific detail then you’re right they probably aren’t worth looking at but surely it’s the overall trend that’s a cause for optimism at the moment?

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Pattern getting flatter with every new GFS run,hopefully this is not the new trend,lack of comments will also tell you when a model run is poor !

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

 No sign of a HP over Greenland with connection to the north atlantic at 240 hours now, really terrible would not be surprised if this is what will follow for the next runs typical GFS trolling model

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

 No sign of a HP over Greenland with connection to the north atlantic at 240 hours now, really terrible would not be surprised if this is what will follow for the next runs typical GFS trolling model

Absolutely terrible run this yes - look over UK but more particularly over Scandinavia.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
25 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Pattern getting flatter with every new GFS run,hopefully this is not the new trend,lack of comments will also tell you when a model run is poor !

The interest only starts after T288. This run is still a variance on the overall theme with a spoiler low off the US Eastern Seaboard, which may not be there on the next run:

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With that Arctic High, the feed remains pro-UK, just the rest has to work! With the Pacific ridge failing a lot earlier and no wedges escaping to our north, it is far from perfect. However the cleansing of the Canadian vortex SE still is a clear signal despite GFS doing its worse with obstacles. D11:

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A cool regime after D8 remains the call with the potential for colder...

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely terrible run this yes - look over UK but more particularly over Scandinavia.

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I'd rather have a quite long period with the average temperature below 0 and dry conditions so there will be some frost down in the soil, otherwise it will melt away directly when next mild period comes and the cold period will be short. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are the models backing away from the Arctic high having as much influence ?..

Beginning to look that way.

 

It happens every year. The arctic high is over egged in the medium to long term. Lost count over the years how many times the arctic high is progged to ridge down in our vicinity but generally only makes it as far as Svalbard. 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It happens every year. The arctic high is over egged in the medium to long term. Lost count over the years how many times the arctic high is progged to ridge down in our vicinity but generally only makes it as far as Svalbard. 

You've got more chance of seeing Elvis than the arctic high - as you said, it threatens an appearance every winter but then stops at around 75 degrees north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

You've got more chance of seeing Elvis than the arctic high - as you said, it threatens an appearance every winter but then stops at around 75 degrees north. 

Ha ha . That gfs run seems to go against the latest AO forecast!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS 12z a bit underwhelming if you are hoping to see a progression toward more blocking before mid month but plenty more water to flow under the bridge yet before making assumptions either way.

 

graphe3_1000_257_87___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

So, cold dry period, followed by milder interlude, followed by what, exactly?  Well we don't know, but a more northerly outlook seems likely, GEM 12z seems to bring this on a little faster than the other models so far, here T222:

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Will be interesting to see if the ECM goes this way or another in an hour or so...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z a bit underwhelming if you are hoping to see a progression toward more blocking before mid month but plenty more water to flow under the bridge yet before making assumptions either way.

 

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As a newcomer (having lurked for a couple of winters), I'm curious to see how this flips back and forth over the next week as it has since last week. Lots of times I've seen people caution not to judge a trend on just one run, be it for the worst or better. I guess time will tell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

As a newcomer (having lurked for a couple of winters), I'm curious to see how this flips back and forth over the next week as it has since last week. Lots of times I've seen people caution not to judge a trend on just one run, be it for the worst or better. I guess time will tell. 

It’s absolutely all about trends over period of output runs.  It’s not so much that it’s been flipping, but pulling back from over playing some elements.  Nothing unusual in that to be honest, but it’s hard not to get excited when one or two runs appear to be delivering great synoptics! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

We always seem to see downgrades from the models over the weekends, only for everything to look more promising (cold wise) come Monday again. It seems to happen every winter!

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

UKMO latest produces a rather flat zonal run with waving cold front at 144t. Could be quite a bit of rain again ,especially in Scotland with a bit of hill snow in the far north at times. Southern England tuning milder by this time but looks dry and benign as does much of Euroland . Maybe, ECM will offer something more exciting for coldies.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
14 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

We always seem to see downgrades from the models over the weekends, only for everything to look more promising (cold wise) come Monday again. It seems to happen every winter!

I haven't really noticed that but the 12z runs often are better, more amplified than the 0z (and of course the  gfs 18z pub run is often just wild) 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The salient features of the ext GEFS mean anomaly this evening.

The vortex over northern Canada with wing men Aleutian Islands and northern Europe and a high cell over the Arctic

Some murmurings from the subtropical high (sth) zones

A strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard and then around the Atlantic sth and thus veering NW/WNW over the UK

This would portend unsettled with temps around average but not to forget a likely day to day  and regional variation when the det runs come to sort any systems tracking east

And a key element all of this is the structure and alignment of the European trough

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6324800.thumb.png.6c90ec8c5586e7928d93934c52697ad8.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6324800.thumb.png.e3f518cc2ce4e37fe0fa4f99484017d3.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6324800.thumb.png.cae1fef8f561a577dc55bb075733df06.png

 

 

 

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