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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM ensembles look broken to me.

15C in a Dec Northerly? I don't  think so.

ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles look broken to me.

15C in a Dec Northerly? I don't  think so.

 

Perhaps it's predicting northerly temperatures in December 2119 as Global Warming really lets rip?!

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Hit at 240 on ECM doesn't look outrageous. The West Coast Rider looks to build a classic, Strong NorEaster. Danger shout Martha's Vineyard. Whipped by the wind by Tuesday. Beyond 10 days UK freeze.  Cross polar flow. We get lucky early. I already got snow at 58m.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
59 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Tonight's 18z spins up this.

But before this at T+240 hrs or 10 days

We may have to encounter a  cool westerly air flow  .

Maybe we could  have a fair bit of cold snowy weather 

Or maybe a westerly flow for a bit longer 

I'd put this months wage on a cold snowy outlook. 

Massive model and data watching coming up

19120918_2918.gif

Wasn't it just under a week ago there was some brief agreement between models for the possibility of snow for this coming week? At about +10 days? 

It seemed then as it does now that a trend towards cold, possibly very cold and wintry is forming, but what happened to the forecast for a mild November and start to December?

I've just driven from London to Oxfordshire and there's quite a frost already. My somewhat questionable app is telling me it's currently - 3°c outside. I'm about 10 miles from RAF Benson, and when it's cold it tends to get very cold out here, with freezing fog. Looking forward to waking up to white fields. 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

This is the 2 metre temps for the 240 hour chart.

ECMWF_222_GB_T2M_fr-FR_fr.png

 

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

You would think so but the previous day had mild SW winds, probably the northerly still to clear those out in far south east. You can animate the charts on the link.

ECMWF_006_EU_V10_fr-FR_fr.png
WWW.TAMETEO.COM

Modèles France - ECMWF Europe - Modèle de prévision numérique du temps du Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme. Il...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

It's the start of the Bartlett. What's the problem?

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Posted
  • Location: Hornchurch, Essex
  • Location: Hornchurch, Essex

Been a keen reader here lurking for many years & this year looks as good as any to finally join in so please keep up the good work. I’m very much a novice... am gradually learning as I go so I’ll just sit here and try and work out what the hell is going on.

I am a coldie though. Loving these day 10s atm.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

To get 15c in December would require a very mild SW'ly flow. Looks like something has gone wrong somewhere with the data. 

Yes, at 6pm too, 2-3 hours after peak temp. Something is screwed up. Any Weatherbell subscribers got more info or charts?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
26 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Yes, at 6pm too, 2-3 hours after peak temp. Something is screwed up. Any Weatherbell subscribers got more info or charts?

There is no 15C and it is warmest in morning 13C in places turning colder everywhere through the day the 216 > 240 does look bizarre on ECM too fast. 
CBE2803F-F543-4E2F-BA4C-BCD392369FED.thumb.png.7f065dbcf78a2851f5aeb930fabc88d0.pngE722EA5A-49AE-4D55-AA45-EB7FC9DAA15D.thumb.png.db17b6d4dbc1fb8050c14ec91f8fcb56.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Sensational chart-

image.thumb.png.1942489e09ec63f60c1f732d70038fd9.png

Shame it's 10 days away  Deep/prolonged cold & snow possible from there...

The theme continues.  

ABEA1CAB-3373-4497-825C-9FC65C463251.jpeg

051D061D-C736-4A6F-BEFF-79F48A903D99.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The usual corrections by ECM this morning, toning down the height rises. Of course, this means phasing, wedges and wave flow changes. D10 from last night and this morning:

2055567519_ECH1-240(19).thumb.gif.b371aba45420a53ce005dd43e9a87260.gif672442867_ECH1-240(20).thumb.gif.8fab7d4451e3cff54a6becfc9c8c6df9.gif

I suspect that is why the ensembles were less promising than the op.

Thankfully the overall signal of a euro trough with the UK within, with SE diving lows remain. We just need a bit sharper ridges to pump some warmer air to higher-lats to get those wedges in the flow. No doubt many subtle changes to the main design as we head through the next few days, hopefully some more productive for even more cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
29 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Today is the most interesting of the next 10 days freezing fog and an easterly, after that back to default mode.

bracka.gif

Cold and dry, hardly default mode. 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Cold weather finally arrived here in Slovakia,barely above freezing with clear skies under northerly winds,overnight EPS have cooled against 12Z,mean now down to almost -5 T850 for middle of December here,suggests no Euro high to me

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
31 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Today is the most interesting of the next 10 days freezing fog and an easterly, after that back to default mode.

bracka.gif

Indeed. Feels very wintry outside with all the frost and fog here. Really Christmassy feel to the weather. ??

Admit it will be brill to have a break from the raging rain, with the next few days looking chilly and mostly dry. High Pressure becoming the UK’s friend, especially towards Southern UK.

FF3C81C8-4AA0-4E94-97FA-593A16ABAF84.thumb.png.c532823db70cc928f7f15fb99429b322.png584E7834-A870-4F3A-ABD7-2DB55DF069C8.thumb.png.9fe75a03c4ca323ea6b74f21d6b37594.png01CD38F4-A8CE-476E-8448-8CBA618A251A.thumb.png.d4c887accbe953ee03ee767b658efa86.png7445CA84-56AE-4931-9780-4241BBC74E1F.thumb.png.f24bbf09fa7252df45a657669e796498.pngEEDF640E-CCAB-4904-8A63-4AFBCC8BDAEA.thumb.png.3744af8b231ec9caa39a32e8d90c5f0a.png1A9A75CE-F83B-402D-A05F-CD86FBF37E30.thumb.png.8531eb267767cd2867a7087fb21d873d.pngA7600C37-E112-4840-BA49-82D68094E966.thumb.png.b678cc74aec8288ef791fe086eddca53.png
 

Likely to be further wintry-like scenes with further frost and mist/fog, though looking likely that a milder flow from the West will gradually take over from the North-West of the UK pushing the UK High Pressure away. 

Further on and as some people suggest, a cool down is possible with the possibility of more Polar Maritime air getting into the mix  and maybe getting even chillier (still a bit far out to be certain, although some support for this). 

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