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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Aren’t the easiest charts in the solar system to interpret. However, both the 6 to 10 day and the 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly charts from the NOAA continuing a similar theme - some higher than average heights out West/South-West in the mid and Western Atlantic, with lower than average heights to the North and North-East of the UK. Looks a fairly mobile Westerly pattern, which fits in with the increasingly Atlantic dominated setup the operational models show for later next week. 

The confidence perhaps low on the 8 to 14 day chart, but there seems like a good enough signal for some kind of upper Arctic High on the 6 to 10 day chart. (The 8 to 14 day chart does still show some positive anomalies within the Arctic area North of Greenland. Just nothing too strong). Could help deliver some interesting scenarios for the cold weather enthusiasts. 

Compared to the first chart, the second chart below (the 8 to 14 day one), shows somewhat more of a North-Westerly element to the mean upper flow over the UK. Looks like it would be more on the chilly side for the UK; Polar Maritime influence at times (which could lead to something more directly from the North - even if briefly) and troughing concentrated mostly over the Eastern Atlantic and towards Scandinavia. 

6 to 10 day mean

14E5BC98-2864-445D-BCB3-E264E752861E.thumb.gif.da87c21dd966f93238a843b11334e997.gif
 

8 to 14 day mean

8CB5C5EA-20DB-452D-B532-AEDFDFA25B96.thumb.gif.e60071f96db7a6383f3f03687792ba2e.gif

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I certainly think solar minimum is something to do with this Southerly tracking jet IF that continues well into December like it looks like at the minute.

Particularly when its progged at long range to move further North then doesn't as FI becomes the mid range.

It would certainly look this way. I wouldn't expect mainstream scientists to except this. 

But certainly looks like solar minimum running the pattern this year. Great seeing vortex going on holiday to siberian side. Qbo dropping like a stone. We might have to have few bites of the cherry before anything really sets in. But the nw se alinement certainly a promising feature so far. Jet stream definitely on a southerly track. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

This looks like it is going to to go well, GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8fd0c0076cc18348980ae7990b6b6f2e.jpg

Watch the warm air advection...from the low at the WSW...

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Mike Poole said:

This looks like it is going to to go well, GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8fd0c0076cc18348980ae7990b6b6f2e.jpg

Watch the warm air advection...

 

When you posted that chart i wasn't actually that enthused, but you were right, 216 says its going to be an Arctic blast.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Just now, Mike Poole said:

This looks like it is going to to go well, GFS T192:

image.thumb.jpg.8fd0c0076cc18348980ae7990b6b6f2e.jpg

Watch the warm air advection...

 

Yes Mike, looks like a decent end to the high res part of the run.  Pretty good consistency between GFS and ECM at 210 (GFS first), particularly re the splitting of the PV.  

image.thumb.png.7b3c090345a7e82c93a355125747f81b.pngimage.thumb.png.07291d2d048208e0612719eb0112a07f.png    

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And at T264, it really hits here:

image.thumb.jpg.53513d74ace127e17ed06da42bf67553.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ad57e3bc7d43787746cc7c9ead7471f.jpg

Not sure there is power to add, but if I'm reading the runes right, we should be OK for an interesting season with wedges...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Remarkable day 10 agreement between GFS & ECM for NW Europe

 

Yes, seems very little room for error with that setup and would normally dismiss it, but this seems different, it is well supported, particularly amongst the op runs, what do you reckon the chances are of that coming off?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could even be a screaming NE or E flow here.

Given the optical  momentum/and on short Trop-pv via raw..(such as mentioned)...

It's certainly a primmed source for that craved Siberian spill and drop!!.

The upper layers are of wait and see after...I'm kicking myself saying this...as the latter is usually the notion...yet were already in front gaining!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Now what's that saying again..... 'wedges build sledges'!?  Well if the 288 landed (which is unlikely in the extreme), looking quite wintery to say the least.

image.thumb.png.68f84782b538e8f4ec94339f664cc219.pngimage.thumb.png.d66abc833abb22dd0857726916772a6b.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And here comes the slider at 276.

image.thumb.png.d2d502c1d4b2a426d5a598c7173a61d5.png

Looks more like another upstream push at T288, Feb, this is what I'm saying, the year of the wedgie!

image.thumb.jpg.37f3ce9fb57295f76139b2fff4632b94.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Given the optical  momentum/and on short Trop-pv via raw..(such as mentioned)...

It's certainly a primmed source for that craved Siberian spill and drop!!.

The upper layers are of wait and see after...I'm kicking myself saying this...as the latter is usually the notion...yet were already in front gaining!!!

This is looking increasingly to me like a December that could go down as an average December CET wise but could end up with a monumental snow event, think 1990 or 2017.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, seems very little room for error with that setup and would normally dismiss it, but this seems different, it is well supported, particularly amongst the op runs, what do you reckon the chances are of that coming off?

30-40% ATM - pattern could be flatter so not clear yet. Needs to get to 144-168

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

And the formats. Are getting fluid...in wanting of gain...

As previously suggested!!

@cold..

@intresting

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

temp4 (12).png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is looking increasingly to me like a December that could go down as an average December CET wise but could end up with a monumental snow event, think 1990 or 2017.

This is exactly what I think will happen, Feb, jet south but strong with some wriggle, and when impacting the UK at the right angle, big snow with cold air in situ for some. Going to to be some interesting watching in the next week or three I think!   And some knife edge situations for some too...bring it on!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

And if it's repeating patterns that is the order of the day, but ever colder, pub run T336 justs illustrates the possibility beautifully:

image.thumb.jpg.fe56990a0bd975a824931772b3f2e0b5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.71028ff076a4003afabef5319a8d5b89.jpg

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, hey?

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Tonight's 18z spins up this.

But before this at T+240 hrs or 10 days

We may have to encounter a  cool westerly air flow  .

Maybe we could  have a fair bit of cold snowy weather 

Or maybe a westerly flow for a bit longer 

I'd put this months wage on a cold snowy outlook. 

Massive model and data watching coming up

19120918_2918.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The Control run is looking to up the ante at just 180.... another wedge in play.

image.thumb.png.6ef7c84f8bbea52d638372e973a8338b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bisley, Surrey (41m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Bisley, Surrey (41m ASL)
31 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And the formats. Are getting fluid...in wanting of gain...

As previously suggested!!

@cold..

@intresting

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_5.png

temp4 (12).png

I love your posts @tight isobar, so please don’t stop! Your not by chance posting in Polish and using Google translate are you?  Sorry mods. Back to the output! 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Yeah I'd give it a few more days at least. I'd be surprised if this season ends up a dud. My closet worst year to this would be 2014 was zzonal but the North done good. Awful down here on the sunny Costa del south coast.  But the models really do underestimate the blocks and wave breaking into the strat. But it's pretty clear to see that the jet stream is wanting a holiday south. But definitely the gefs has been very keen on siberian side mother vortex. But residual vortex segments can also create chaos with in the models. But I've been watching and expecting a more Eastern side dominated polar vortex with a split and warming later on into January. But the jigsaw is big and things are at the moment moving towards a colder trend. But also seen eye candy epically fail. So few more days and we could be closer to a real blast of cold or a tropical bqq winter. But the azores heights is not its usual self. Neither is the jet stream. If anything the models seem extremely keep on cold to our east only a matter of time. 

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