Model output discussion - late November

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well the 192 ECM is hardly filling me with frigid joy.

it wasn't supposed to ……………. any possible 'cold action' is post day 9

the gefs seem keen on the 12th  ……….

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well the 192 ECM is hardly filling me with frigid joy.

Yes that'd be because you're looking at a time frame well too early for cold.. 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

it wasn't supposed to ……………. any possible 'cold action' is post day 9

the gefs seem keen on the 12th  ……….

14 days away? Blue, that`s a non chase.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

it wasn't supposed to ……………. any possible 'cold action' is post day 9

the gefs seem keen on the 12th  ……….

It does look even less promising than the GFS at 192 though, where the ECM usually amplifies too much, just have to hope that the caveat of GFS sometimes being better in zonal transitions to Northerlies holds true.

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

14 days away? Blue, that`s a non chase.

I hope it does actually happen but unfortunately it will count down like clockwork until day 10 and then just disappear into thin air! Hope not but that’s what usually happens.

not normally a downbeat chap so I’ll leave that there plus I suppose it’s still not even winter. 
many ups and downs throughout the coming months I’m sure

[StretfordEnd1996]

7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

14 days away? Blue, that`s a non chase.

We're not looking at charts that are 14 days away for cold weather

GFS shows a cold pattern emerging at D10 with riding to the west of us pushing North

A good few ensembles also showing a similar solution

The chart you posted a few moments ago was for D8 - this has never been shown as a day with a 'cold' flow

EDIT: An acceptable chart from the ECM at +240 - signs of ridging too to the west? 

Edited November 28, 2019 by StretfordEnd1996

[Methuselah]

While I liked the GFS 12Z operational's post-240 evolution, it's fair to say that that evolution doesn't have much support from the ensembles, so only time will tell what's going to happen...?

   

It's getting there!

[Ali1977]

Looks good , could be similar to the GFS Op if it went out that far. Heights opening up I to Greeny and higher NH

Edited November 28, 2019 by Ali1977

[IDO]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does look even less promising than the GFS at 192 though, where the ECM usually amplifies too much, just have to hope that the caveat of GFS sometimes being better in zonal transitions to Northerlies holds true.

...I see where you are coming from! But when has the hunt for cold ever been a straight forward case that models agree on as far out as D12? If the GFS does verify it is likely to be a rocky road with twists and turns, with seeming false dawns. 

The ECM 12z has made subtle moves towards the GFS op, though not quite there yet. It has the Pacific High more in play compared to the 0z and gets an Arctic surface high but not as strong upper wedge. Also it has the GFS direction of travel with the tPV migrating to Siberia.

D10 charts:

A kind of symmetry there? It does indicate to me that the GFS playbook is not pie in the sky. Though the GFS op solution may be at the very lucky end of what the UK could get if the pattern verifies.

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Before this gets into an unnecessary `chat`, if you want to chase 10 day charts for yet another season then go ahead

Over and out. Sorry Mods.

As I'm quite new to posting in the model thread, can I double check I am allowed to post D10 charts?

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

As I'm quite new to posting in the model thread, can I double check I am allowed to post D10 charts?

You can post day 100 charts from the CFS if they show deep cold for the U.K.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You can post day 100 charts from the CFS if they show deep cold for the U.K.

and awful ones

[Ninman]

Meanwhile the AO has taken a holiday to Blackpool to go on the big dipper!

 

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Ninman

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and awful ones

Well it's nice to know we don't need to look for 100 days ahead for cold charts - we can look 2 days ahead for some spine shivering ones!

 

It's always nice to know that for the Winter of 2019-20 it took a total of 0 days for the arrival of cold weather..

[chris55]

Look at those rainfall spikes...or the lack of....FINALLY!!! It’s going to be dry...!!!!! For a while at least  

Where we end up regarding winter wonderlands is another matter, but for me that dry period is so welcome. 
 

 

[knocker]

35 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

As I'm quite new to posting in the model thread, can I double check I am allowed to post D10 charts?

It pays to double check as you are not actually allowed to post charts priior to day ten in case you are accused of not misleading the punters

Edited November 28, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

It pays to double check as you are not actually allowed to post charts priior to day ten

Except on the rare occasions they show very cold weather!

[Polar Maritime]

I think we best move on to what we can actually discuss in here..

[Jordan S]

9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Look at those rainfall spikes...or the lack of....FINALLY!!! It’s going to be dry...!!!!! For a while at least  

Where we end up regarding winter wonderlands is another matter, but for me that dry period is so welcome. 
 

 

Was just about to post yes that's more of what took my interest you can see the gfs operational a cold run with some support but some trend milder although on the surface for a while next week will be cold and at times frosty.

Gem ensembles little difference.. 

Dry few days then more rainfall spikes and coming back sooner than the gfs but we shall see, upper air temperatures shown to be cold for the next few days then becoming milder then perhaps going back down towards average for the extended range up and down sums that up.

Edited November 28, 2019 by jordan smith

[knocker]

Looking at the ext EPS the question now arises whether the strat vortex alignment is impacting the trop with the secondary lobe sinking south into Europe and some residual height build up in the Greenland area through the evolution This creates a twin upper flow, as seen recently, and the infiltration of colder air into the UK

 

[northwestsnow]

Thanks Knocker...

Perhaps wintry potential for elevated northern regions on the eps...

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Knocker...

Perhaps wintry potential for elevated northern regions on the eps...

Far too early to be thinking detail. At the moment just trying to get a hold on the direction of travel

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Far too early to be thinking detail. At the moment just trying to get a hold on the direction of travel

Its a significant 850mb -ve anomaly though in a 50 member suite at D15.

[Purga]

2 hours ago, Ols500 said:

Whats the wet blulb temperature?

Wet-bulb (as opposed to blulb ) temperature. The wet-bulb temperature (WBT) is the temperature read by a thermometer covered in water-soaked cloth (wet-bulb thermometer) over which air is passed. At 100% relative humidity, the wet-bulb temperature is equal to the air temperature (dry-bulb temperature) and it is lower at lower humidity. (Wiki)

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a significant 850mb -ve anomaly though in a 50 member suite at D15.

For that temp anomaly one would assume there is a decent cluster seeing some North  Atlantic ridging ..