Model output discussion - late November

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’ve said this all along, it irks me a little when I see people championing it to be honest, it called the easterly 2/3 years ago and since then has basically lived off that reputation. It’s a dreadful model. 

Agree.  Although its no worse IMO than the GFS    what i do like though is its quite accurate in HI res   Precipitation Wind etc  is quite accurate at a short lead time.  Any thing else however  it does not perform the best 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’ve said this all along, it irks me a little when I see people championing it to be honest, it called the easterly 2/3 years ago and since then has basically lived off that reputation. It’s a dreadful model. 

There is a reasoning that if you follow the model that is showing the worst scenario for UK cold, you won't go far wrong. 90% of the time it holds true. If the worst scenario shown is still for cold and snow, game on!

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I’ve said this all along, it irks me a little when I see people championing it to be honest, it called the easterly 2/3 years ago and since then has basically lived off that reputation. It’s a dreadful model. 

I would laugh if UKMO and ECM switch back to something like ICON was showing on its 06z run.

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS further West with the cold than its 6z run at 72.

[swfc]

Very little change on the 12z GFS.high over UK looks nailed on imo.not a bad thing losing the rain for a short while 

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Very little change on the 12z GFS.high over UK looks nailed on imo.not a bad thing losing the rain for a short while 

As long as it hasnt changed from the 06z am.happy!!

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Is it going to be one of those winters where the cold is constantly just out of reach and before you know it, it's spring and nobody has seen a flake all winter long?

Depends on your definition of cold but let’s get to winter before we right off eh?

[festivalking]

7 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Is it going to be one of those winters where the cold is constantly just out of reach and before you know it, it's spring and nobody has seen a flake all winter long?

At the moment its one of those autumns!!! Plenty of time!

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Depends on your definition of cold but let’s get to winter before we right off eh?

Yes, haven't written it off just yet lol, it just reminds me of last year when there were impressive charts that remained eye candy and nothing more.

[Weathizard]

It’s not even December yet so plenty to be positive about but you have to say when you go from this at day 2 to this at day 6 you have to feel like it’s an early open goal being missed, might not get a better chance all winter. 

 

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by Weathizard

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Yes, haven't written it off just yet lol, it just reminds me of last year when there were impressive charts that remained eye candy and nothing more.

Yes always on the "cusp" of epic synoptics!!!.still guess it's to be expected given our location in europe

[Bristawl Si]

26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is a reasoning that if you follow the model that is showing the worst scenario for UK cold, you won't go far wrong. 90% of the time it holds true. If the worst scenario shown is still for cold and snow, game on!

Just seems like a typical December chaos re model output. It always seems worst for December days. My extremely simple take is that December is the time weather in UK and Europe begins to try to sort itself out for Winter, hence model chaos, and lots of chopping and changing. Not very scientific i know, but i'm a simple soul.

December in UK is normally a mix of dry, coldish days and wet, mild ones. Probably the form horse for Dec 2019.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It’s not even December yet so plenty to be positive about but you have to say when you go from this at day 2 to this at day 6 you have to feel like it’s an early open goal being missed, might not get a better chance all winter. 

 

Agree with you 100% on that, its the point I made earlier, first week of December could have been memorable, but alas we miss out on an open goal.

[That ECM]

Back to those pesky models promising the earth and not delivering gfs 12z hinting at a ridge and nw/se flow. Not mild.

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Back to those pesky models promising the earth and not deliveringgfs 12z hinting at a ridge and nw/se flow. Not mild.

Looks like the Polar Vortex Is coming for a holiday 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Looks like the Polar Vortex Is coming for a holiday 

It's a shocking chart tbh.if only those purples were 850s!!!

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Back to those pesky models promising the earth and not deliveringgfs 12z hinting at a ridge and nw/se flow. Not mild.

Agree. 

METO probably going down the PM air mass route through December and if unmodified there will be plenty of cold to tap into

I may add that the PV has not set up recidency and wedges seem eager to build at any oportunity

Edited November 26, 2019 by winterof79

[tight isobar]

The op..becoming more reflective..of the ens...

And conversion into colder doesn't take a lot of working out!

That's some pv overide being modeled..and with diagnostics in the mix...plenty of exitment looks a whisker away...after our nearly fortified upcoming snap....or perhaps more...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Looks like the Polar Vortex Is coming for a holiday 

Pity it doesn't take a holiday in Southern Spain.

[Timmytour]

GFS 12z run to run comparison for next tuesday  today v yesterday

 

 v  

 

I think there's chances growing for that high drifting over UK to link up with one moving up to Scandinavia ... well, maybe more hope at this stage!

[knocker]

The meridional NH pattern that transfers the tpv to northern Canada and initiates a strong thermal gradient across the Atlantic

 

[claret047]

5 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Now that’s what you call cold Zonal! Good for the Scottish ski industry at least 

Tim or another poster, could someone tell me what the final chart is all about.

Many thanks

Dave

[swfc]

1 minute ago, claret047 said:

Tim or another poster, could someone tell me what the final chart is all about.

Many thanks

Dave

Snow cover I think

[Timmytour]

Where Snow is laying I think Dave and the depth

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, claret047 said:

Tim or another poster, could someone tell me what the final chart is all about.

Many thanks

Dave

Snow accumulated charts...although take with a pinch buddy...unless your looking 24 hrs within..

Deeper the coulour deeper the depth...with greens lowest ground levels...although again...It's p###ing in the wind with such timeframe!