Model output discussion - late November

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bigsnow said:

Hilly aresd exposed to the NW??? you should be careful of that..

haha ..

I meant hilly areas - obvs!!

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

haha ..

I meant hilly areas - obvs!!

i dare not quote the rest of it.... brilliant.. sorry mods but just to good to pass it by..

Edited November 25, 2019 by bigsnow

[Jordan S]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks to be around 50MPH where I'm going ouch! Good job I have a spa hotel to warm up in after Husky sledging and wandering the christmas markets! Thanks for the heads up!

Your welcome it could change though,I'll keep you posted.

Edited November 25, 2019 by jordan smith

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's crazy how low the bar is for some people these days...

Take 2006/2007, notorious for being one of the worst winters for cold and snow ever up to that point-

Even that winter featured a better set up than what we are seeing being served up at the moment! Topplers are the very least you would expect, even in a zonal set up- unless you're experiencing a winter like 88/89 etc.

Edited November 25, 2019 by CreweCold

[Sperrin]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If i was in NI and had decent altitude i would be getting quite interested in the way the models are trending..

There is scope for a decent wintry blast there, IMO.

This has got me out of my autumn hibernation. I usually do real well in these set ups at 200m asl. 

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's crazy how low the bar is for some people these days...

Take 2006/2007, notorious for being one of the worst winters for cold and snow ever up to that point-

Even that winter featured a better set up than what we are seeing at the moment!

have to agree, in all my time of model watching on here any thing over 5 days you take with a pinch of salt.

[StretfordEnd1996]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's crazy how low the bar is for some people these days...

Take 2006/2007, notorious for being one of the worst winters for cold and snow ever up to that point-

Even that winter featured a better set up than what we are seeing at the moment!

We have a 4 day cold spell coming up and Winter's not started yet. Posts like this especially in the model thread do get me a little down to be honest - I don't feel they're on point.

 

This is a long long way out but the GFS has been toying with it throughout today and it remains a plausible option in the longer term - 

Will have to wait at least a few days to see if it manages to stay into the more reliable timeframe - plus eagerly awaiting the 18z GEFS.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

We have a 4 day cold spell coming up and Winter's not started yet. Posts like this especially in the model thread do get me a little down to be honest - I don't feel they're on point.

 

This is a long long way out but the GFS has been toying with it throughout today and it remains a plausible option in the longer term - 

Will have to wait at least a few days to see if it manages to stay into the more reliable timeframe - plus eagerly awaiting the 18z GEFS.

It's not about feelings and emotions, or about being 'down'. It's about objectivity and realism. There is nothing in the output today to suggest that any more than maybe 5-10% of the population will see anything more wintry than a couple of frosts in the next two weeks or so. 

That's not being anything other than truthful and realistic when analysing the output AT PRESENT. It can change, we all know that. If you like short lived topplers with the jet going over the top of the block then fine...the outlook is for you. However, I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig.

We had a cracking 0z run from the GFS the other day with proper high latitude blocking in evidence but it wasn't followed up unfortunately.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's crazy how low the bar is for some people these days...

 

 

Oh my bar is set very high Crewe , but I’m just saying I would take that set up over the usual mild SW dross . At least it will be seasonal with that set up . I’d much rather have -10 to -12 850s with persistent heavy snow , freezing by day and -10 at night . (That’s me being a dreamer now ) . But for now are take this 

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's crazy how low the bar is for some people these days...

Take 2006/2007, notorious for being one of the worst winters for cold and snow ever up to that point-

Even that winter featured a better set up than what we are seeing being served up at the moment! Topplers are the very least you would expect, even in a zonal set up- unless you're experiencing a winter like 88/89 etc.

Winter is winter and winter is cold. 

 

Also your chart is for Febuary and it's currently the 25th of November. Bit premature to judge a winter that hasn't even started yet?

[Mapantz]

If anyone is wondering where MIA's recent post went, I have moved it to the snow-ice-coverage-in-the-northern-hemisphere-winter thread by request, as he mistakenly posted it in here.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Winter is winter and winter is cold. 

 

Also your chart is for Febuary and it's currently the 25th of November. Bit premature to judge a winter that hasn't even started yet?

Oh and here we go again...

Where did I judge the whole of the winter in what I said?

Pretty sure I stipulated in the next 2 weeks...I used the 2007 example to highlight how the synoptics on offer at present are nothing at all special and certainly nothing to get excited about...

At the end of the day I can soothe say and throw around assumptions about us magically finding amplification from somewhere but what would be the point. In the past 6 years or so we've had maybe a couple of good snowfall events...the beast from the east being one of them. I have been fully vindicated EVERY time I have 'acted negative' as some would say. I would say it's just an ability to analyse weather charts and realism...

Edited November 25, 2019 by CreweCold

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Think you've posted this in the wrong thread MIA 

Thanks

Mapantz has moved it for me!

 MIA

Edited November 25, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's not about feelings and emotions, or about being 'down'. It's about objectivity and realism. There is nothing in the output today to suggest that any more than maybe 5-10% of the population will see anything more wintry than a couple of frosts in the next two weeks or so. 

That's not being anything other than truthful and realistic when analysing the output AT PRESENT. It can change, we all know that. If you like short lived topplers with the jet going over the top of the block then fine...the outlook is for you. However, I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig.

We had a cracking 0z run from the GFS the other day with proper high latitude blocking in evidence but it wasn't followed up unfortunately.

Yes of course - and as I said since Winter's not started yet that's why there's no need to worry about that just yet.

I think you know in your head that you need to be patient, you actually said that in an earlier post today or yesterday. 

I'm liking the chances of continued N/NW'lies to be honest as I think they may eventually be able to produce something bigger out of the bag.

Times on our side Crewe - I'm sure you know that. 

[Jordan S]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks

Mapantz has moved it for me!

 MIA

I saw, a very informative post.

Edited November 25, 2019 by jordan smith

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Yes of course - and as I said since Winter's not started yet that's why there's no need to worry about that just yet.

I think you know in your head that you need to be patient, you actually said that in an earlier post today or yesterday. 

I'm liking the chances of continued N/NW'lies to be honest as I think they may eventually be able to produce something bigger out of the bag.

Times on our side Crewe - I'm sure you know that. 

A white Christmas would be nice!

[feb1991blizzard]

34 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah, shame they would be of rain!

 

Not necessarily 

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh and here we go again...

Where did I judge the whole of the winter in what I said?

Pretty sure I stipulated in the next 2 weeks...I used the 2007 example to highlight how the synoptics on offer at present are nothing at all special and certainly nothing to get excited about...

Doesn't need to be non stop action all the time, tbh the fun of it is the chase of something that is quite rare and hard to come by. If it was the average to get snow and cold all the time I probably wouldn't be here. Your chart actually means a lot that even the worse winters there was good chances. 2013/2014 being one of the wettest on record it still had chances. Didn't mean to offend.

 

Nothing to worry about for now still plenty of time. 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Snowman.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not necessarily 

Well we all know our own areas, here with a strong breeze you need uppers at -8 or lower- less in a slack flow. The moderating influence of the Irish Sea spreads a fair way in land.

[MP-R]

17 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

We have a 4 day cold spell coming up and Winter's not started yet. Posts like this especially in the model thread do get me a little down to be honest - I don't feel they're on point.

 

This is a long long way out but the GFS has been toying with it throughout today and it remains a plausible option in the longer term - 

Will have to wait at least a few days to see if it manages to stay into the more reliable timeframe - plus eagerly awaiting the 18z GEFS.

Ignore posts like that. As you say, we do indeed have a 4-5 day cold spell coming up which will make a welcome change. After that, a typical ridge/trough pattern rather than raving blowtorch or frigid easterlies. In the type of pattern shown, conditions will never be the same from two days to the next.

 

As you've probably gathered, FI is quite short term. Personally, I'd prefer the ECM solution for mid next week which would bring less in the way of rain/wind between cold spells but that's all conjecture. I'm certainly looking forward to a seasonal end of the week / early next week.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well we all know our own areas, here with a strong breeze you need uppers at -8 or lower- less in a slack flow. The moderating influence of the Irish Sea spreads a fair way in land.

By the way my lower expectations are just for the first part of the winter, if the coming setup is all we manage in Jan then yes - you are right, that would not float me at all. proper snow events are my benchmark for mid winter and if we don't achieve them then its a crap winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

By the way my lower expectations are just for the first part of the winter, if the coming setup is all we manage in Jan then yes - you are right, that would not float me at all. proper snow events are my benchmark for mid winter and if we don't achieve them then its a crap winter.

All hinges on what happens in the stratosphere this year, again IMO.

There just isn't enough forcing elsewhere in play to break us from climatology i.e a +NAO. Both ends of the Pacific are working against us- neutral ENSO does us no favours and the N Pacific hasn't helped us for years.

If we can get a decent strat warming then we will have a ticket to the draw...let's hope we get lucky this time 

Edited November 25, 2019 by CreweCold

[StretfordEnd1996]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Ignore posts like that. As you say, we do indeed have a 4-5 day cold spell coming up which will make a welcome change. After that, a typical ridge/trough pattern rather than raving blowtorch or frigid easterlies. In the type of pattern shown, conditions will never be the same from two days to the next.

 

As you've probably gathered, FI is quite short term. Personally, I'd prefer the ECM solution for mid next week which would bring less in the way of rain/wind between cold spells but that's all conjecture. I'm certainly looking forward to a seasonal end of the week / early next week.

Up until only recently I longed considered anything up until 240 to be within the 'reliable timeframe' - I think that's always been the traditionally accepted one but I've quickly realized that that isn't true at all and its more like 144 (at the very most!)

For longer trends beyond say 198 I look at the GEFS ensembles as I feel they can often do a good job of highlighting the slightest of trends - but these latest sets aren't eye candy really after the initial cooler spell with the op an outlier (though not by much). 

Still - there are a fair few that toy with the -5 uppers after around D10 - it looks far from mild - but not convincing yet.. 

 

[markw2680]

I for one am pretty happy with the current output, if we can get a cold dry weekend with some frost and crisp sun followed by a toppling high giving some calm possibly freezing foggy conditions and then perhaps some heavy wintry showers blowing in on a strong nw wind then that’s a pretty cracking start to winter imo, especially as December is quite often a complete waste of time for a winter month. 
Bring it on I say

[SMU]

Looking at the ENS & that little trough I circled on the ICON 

If that manages to sweep SW circa T162 ( shown on 4/5 GFS ENS ) then we can add another 36 hours to the cold spell with maybe some sleet / Snow in the ENE

Best case scenario here > One to watch out for  @shaky

Edited November 26, 2019 by Steve Murr