Model output discussion - late November

[knocker]

According to the gfs by midday Friday, as the pattern develops, the mid atlantic trough becomes negatively tilted and a wave forms on the surface front which really comes to nothing as it tracks south east

But with the ridge sliding south east a welcome couple of dry days, apart from maybe from odd shower in the north of Scotland and perhaps some rain just impinging the south coast, albeit cold with quite a severe ground frost in many areas

Edited November 25, 2019 by knocker

[swfc]

12z GFS at least it's drymr PV looks like making his hand shown

Edited November 25, 2019 by swfc

[Methuselah]

Plenty of twists & turns to come, yet?

   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Plenty of twists & turns to come, yet?

   

Aye, a chart more associated with Dec, unlike Nov, me summer shoes maybe coming back out, much better than a lot of days this autumn where we've been stuck under a trough at below avg temps

[knocker]

The gfs 5- 10 NH pattern is distinctly odd with the Russian ridge displacing the vortex and a 180kt jet winging around the atlantic high.

Edited November 25, 2019 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

icon is a beaut and gfs ukmo and gem all knife edge stuff but no doubt some pretty beefy cold snaps/spell.

gfs got some more cold for us in fi.

 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, a chart more associated with Dec, unlike Nov, me summer shoes maybe coming back out, much better than a lot of days this autumn where we've been stuck under a trough at below avg temps

You won’t be wearing your summer shoes for very long , might get a tad cold with what follows on

[Jordan S]

34 minutes ago, swfc said:

12z GFS at least it's drymr PV looks like making his hand shown

Drier for a few days at the weekend and early next week but it doesn't currently look like lasting very long before we may see unsettled conditions once again for most areas. Ofcourse the time frame in question is still 5-7 days away. 

Edited November 25, 2019 by jordan smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Dry for a few days at the weekend and early next week but it doesn't look like lasting very long before we may see unsettled conditions once again for most areas. 

 

but at least looks zonal, a strong west to east average flow shouldn't be as wet as slow moving troughs over us, and can have sunshine too at times behind fast moving systems

Edited November 25, 2019 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MR EXTREMES]

gem pulling heights out west,

see how the two air masses are fighting for dominance another cold attack looks likely to win out if this is the correct evolution.

gefs is an example to of how these deep sliding lows can dominate.

although a bit further north would help but lots of time yet to change either way interesting though.

Edited November 25, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[Methuselah]

It's nice to see that, even out at T+384, the PFJ is still far from being flat...?

   

So, at least there's that consistency to consider.

[Mucka]

45 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You won’t be wearing your summer shoes for very long , might get a tad cold with what follows on

Agreed.

Although it looks like this first event will be a toppler we will at least have a brief drier period under the high pressure and it is as that high pressure is displaced SW that we may see another attempt at an Atlantic ridge, perhaps as soon as early 2nd week of Dec.

Naturally signals are mixed that far out and it may well be that if it happens it will be another toppler but rather that than flat zonal and it maintains interest in the output as we head deeper into December.

 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

^^

Yes, GEFS look to be keeping the cold locked in until wed 4th so a nice little spell - might be a few 'white' mornings , alas not from snow but for me personally much more preferable to do the christmas shopping etc with a scarf and gloves rather then a rain mac with the wind and rain lashing down.

So, some crisp cold weather over the weekend and up to mid week before the Atlantic air begins to move in- from my POV the hope is we see some potent PM attacks , down stream might profile might help us out in this respect by encouraging the collapsing high to get pulled west.Tthat is an aspiration rather than a forecast at this stage.

[sausage]

overall very poor output tonight and i think shows how once again were on the milder side of the high that yesterday looked so promising to delivering something special. i think this will be the story of winter. eastern europe again for cold n snow whilst we rely on two days worth of mediocore north westerlies. why just why is it so difficult for highs to set up over greenland?? is it the snow cover?? because theyve happened before!! so whats different. let me guess the constant surge of the jet stream!!?

[knocker]

The gfs det run is not out of place when looking at the GEFS 5-10 mean anomaly

Which appears to be leading up to the transfer of the main tpv to northern Canada with an extension to eastern Europe and a trough down eastern seaboard NA. All of this, with moderate amplification over North America, results in a very strong upper flow across the Atlantic around the subtropical high. Await this evening's EPS and NOAA with some interest

Edited November 25, 2019 by knocker

[winterof79]

15 minutes ago, sausage said:

overall very poor output tonight and i think shows how once again were on the milder side of the high that yesterday looked so promising to delivering something special. i think this will be the story of winter. eastern europe again for cold n snow whilst we rely on two days worth of mediocore north westerlies. why just why is it so difficult for highs to set up over greenland?? is it the snow cover?? because theyve happened before!! so whats different. let me guess the constant surge of the jet stream!!?

Were on the cold side its just to close this time and you'd be better off in the moans thread really. 

 

[SMU]

ECM has -5c @850 in situ over the central portion of the UK as the low slides up from the SW

With a shallow system certainly some wintryness could be on offer

Edited November 25, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM has -5c @850 in situ over the central portion of the UK as the low slides up from the SW

With a shallow system certainly some wintryness could be on offer

Certainly looks possible. I note on the meto long ranger they say about rain in the south on sat so they still think it could end up further north than most models currently show.  Would be fine margins, prob high ground above 150m 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Tim Bland

[bluearmy]

whilst uncertainty on detail remains, note the 3 wave NH pattern at day six seems pretty reliable and will have some consequences in the strat though not a sustained trop pattern

[knocker]

The ecm Saturday

[knocker]

The gfs did something similar with a 180kt jet

 

Edited November 25, 2019 by knocker

[blizzard81]

Well we certainly know ecm still has it's age old problem of over amplification. Yesterday's 192hr chart compared to today's 168hr.

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well we certainly know ecm still has it's age old problem of over amplification. Yesterday's 192hr chart compared to today's 168hr.

Personally the main problem was the overdoing of the arctic high. ICON did it too but today they've scaled it back a lot.

But that Russian seems to have appeared out of nowhere so that's interesting but is it friend or foe?

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Personally the main problem was the overdoing of the arctic high. ICON did it too but today they've scaled it back a lot.

But that Russian seems to have appeared out of nowhere so that's interesting but is it friend or foe?

Are you suggesting the Russian High might move over towards Scandanavia?

[weirpig]

And again  another run model possibly going for rises towards  Greenland  take 2