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Model output discussion - late November


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
50 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Hmmm yes just doesn't quite cut the mustard on the GFS 18 op..

HP topples in perhaps a tad quicker compared to other runs today - 

image.thumb.png.12a7dcd5e47bbade0b64789e39698d78.png

But it'd be still cold - as indicated by the uppers, with the -5 isotherm getting down over much of the country throughout much of the period from Friday to Sunday.

image.thumb.png.a052c4fd16fc5c5d555bce915cfd8d62.png

It's not a dream run but its acceptable - more so if it turns out to be one of the 'milder' runs in the suit - (milder meaning in this particular comment, toppling the HP in too early).

 

Nothing to get excited about for the far south on those charts.

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Plenty to be optimistic about - and the 18z GEFS proves that too (going out until the 4th)

image.thumb.png.0a1df1cd1e0fed4681b542e10b7ad11a.png

Firming up now on a genuine cold snap from around the 28th until the 3rd (at the earliest) - a huge upgrade from just a couple of days ago when we were looking at nothing more than a 1-2 day toppler at the very most (with iffy uppers too) 

Not often do we see upgrades but we've certainly seen them in the last few days. It's still far enough away to see downgrades - let's hope this doesn't happen.

Notice how the 18z op is indeed one of the more 'quicker' ensembles to bring the HP toppling in too around the 3rd and 4th. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
6 minutes ago, Don said:

Nothing to get excited about for the far south on those charts.

Apologies! I tried my best! 

I guess these setups are more favorable for the North (naturally) but even in the South Don I'm sure it'd turn very seasonably cold with frosts that's for sure. I suppose we need some absolute stonkers to get you excited!

image.thumb.png.eaaeed163c47c6bac03ffa7a0ed1b76d.png

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

You on about the South of France

Lol, if only! 

1 minute ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Apologies! I tried my best! 

I guess these setups are more favorable for the North (naturally) but even in the South Don I'm sure it'd turn very seasonably cold with frosts that's for sure. 

Haha, yes I'm sure it will feel more seasonable for a few days which will be nice but snow probably unlikely south of the midlands at this stage.  Overall, though, I fear it's going to be a long winter and not in the cold sense!

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Just now, Don said:

Lol, if only! 

Haha, yes I'm sure it will feel more seasonable for a few days which will be nice but snow probably unlikely south of the midlands at this stage.  Overall, though, I fear it's going to be a long winter and not in the cold sense!

To early to be worrying about that Don at this stage before Winter's begun. 

This type of cold snap I consider very rare for the time of year - in what's usually a largely zonal, mild and wet period.

The extended GEFS ensembles beyond day 10 I don't think show that as much as it did the other day. It shows a largely mixed bag with a lot of scatter.

Plenty to play for..

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

25% chance of snow for London on 2nd December now on latest short GFS 18z ensembles and I notice a max of just 4c now forecast on BBC too for Dartford 

20191124_232815.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 12z eps ens out now,still a good clustering out to the 3rd/4th dec to a colder solution

774912816_ensemble-tt6-london(1).thumb.gif.4ccdd659b21632bd4d11a7d9ac2fb9f7.gif

and the gefs ens is cold out to that time period with some nudging towards -10.

graphe3_1000_264_28___.thumb.png.fb916c8a341f332f0536ba7ce8dd4bcf.png

i wouldn't worry about the uncertainty after that as things can change and will.

the temps are coming down but my ramp is going up...

download.thumb.jpg.b03ec7f85a850d6e12a88c23fe840dd9.jpg

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

image.png.ce7d8f67755443d82d1f82953381c0t2mLondon.thumb.png.846396b2b6fb90e4c818448644706836.png

Looks like they will all end up near freezing to me. What a chance for a serious cold spell. It could be special☃️???????

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ICON still has heart ❤️

iconnh-0-156.png?25-00

And given it underdoes the 850's this would be very cold.

iconnh-1-168.png?25-00

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

First boom of the day goes to ICON!

Very cold uppers spreading south through the weekend..

Still looks shortlived though unless we can shear the high towards Scandi.

The issue is the block is essentially a mid Atlantic HP- If we let the trop pattern collapse, the trop vortex will flatten the hemispheric ridging into mid latitude features and we'll end up in a situation like recent GFS runs have been hinting at in FI.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Still looks shortlived though unless we can shear the high towards Scandi.

TBH Crewe, its very rare to see a 3 or 4 day cold snap/spell during Decembers nowadays so with that in mind i'm happy

still going strong at 180hours.

image.thumb.png.e97c9fc25015be1e357c2a096cca2694.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH Crewe, its very rare to see a 3 or 4 day cold snap/spell during Decembers nowadays so with that in mind i'm happy

still going strong at 180hours.

image.thumb.png.e97c9fc25015be1e357c2a096cca2694.png

Oh I agree- but it's what comes after this that worries me. As soon at the N Atlantic sector amplification subsides, a lot of the NWP is pointing towards a strengthening trop vortex- which is not something I want to see. I'd much MUCH prefer to see a proper GH set up and give us a bit more to play with going forward.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

Oh I agree- but it's what comes after this that worries me. As soon at the N Atlantic sector amplification subsides, a lot of the NWP is pointing towards a strengthening trop vortex- which is not something I want to see. I'd much MUCH prefer to see a proper GH set up and give us a bit more to play with going forward.

Yup, agree with everything you wrote.

Not sure how accurate the ICON precip charts are but the run looks bone dry- which also means, with any luck,given the short days, some low minima

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, agree with everything you wrote.

Not sure how accurate the ICON precip charts are but the run looks bone dry- which also means, with any luck,given the short days, some low minima

They're OK but may not be picking up convection very well with it being fairly low res. 

That being said, the HP is too close to allow much in the way of more organised troughing from the NE, so it'd likely be a case of wintry showers towards E coast etc and dry and cold weather further W.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO better than yesterdays 00z but not up to ICON

UN144-21.GIF?25-04

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cold, but not in the same league as ICON..

UKMO is quite frankly poor.

You can see the sinking nature of the HP on the Europe view...

image.thumb.png.92c134edc4c067c105967a127ffacde2.png

The jet can only loop over the top from there. Once again, it's linked to the timing of the exit of the LP off the ESB. Too much energy is transferred to the initial Atlantic LP and so we can't get WAA N fast enough and far enough W in the N Atlantic.

One positive is the building HP towards Russia which would hopefully keep some pressure on the trop vortex.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

UKMO is quite frankly poor.

You can see the sinking nature of the HP on the Europe view

image.thumb.png.92c134edc4c067c105967a127ffacde2.png

The jet can only loop over the top from there. 

One positive is the building HP towards Russia which would hopefully keep some pressure on the trop vortex.

I wouldn't say its poor personally but compared to ICON yes, nowhere near as good.

Would still be very cold,esp at night as we hit next fri/sat/sun..

image.thumb.png.c023570931ef804f8285d070d1470f4b.png

image.thumb.png.70cd8b8e913ebfc3adad8bc5e0a189b4.png

image.thumb.png.f18505010685f6a997da2e46d338d69f.png

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