Model output discussion - late November

[XtremeUKWeather]

Can we admire P4

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Ooof  What’s going on here then on the control? Cut off high?

Yes note the comments on the GEM the GFS is now making the right noises for energy moving SE through the block-

Once this happens the Mean for 03rd & 4th will plummet.

PTB 3 & 4 lol

[Mucka]

GFS short enesmbles showing significant improved cold prospects over the 00z

 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wow the control looks amazing at 180 hours!!heres to special ecm this evening!!if it looks better than ukmo i will take it!!!

It’s a beaut

[carinthian]

47 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Wouldn’t mind access to the models that @carinthian s team use in the alps. They mentioned this chance of snow in the south next sat when none of the models we see showed it! I thought he / they were bonkers when he mentioned it 5 days ago! 

Hi Tim,I think this latest chart from UKMO for next weekend is more to the present thinking of the team over here and that's for the low or disturbance to track just to the South of England. It is noted however, that the latest GFS has it further north. The UKMO position would have upper temperatures in the negative values at fairly low heights, say -4c at 850 mb height from say Cardigan Bay to Thames Estuary. The snow computer our team uses has flagged up a chance of snow in places along this zone. Still too far out for the perimeter results from the fine mesh model to forecast but the risk has increased. Anyway more runs needed. Longer term the team think GFS is far too progressive with the zonal flow over Northern Britain. Again their computer show height rising again to the east. Maybe this will produce a more acute trough eventually between Scandinavia and the UK, but that's a long way off. So think some great model viewing with-in the 144t range. Best not look much further than that. Next weekend could be interesting in your neck of the woods.

C

[Weathizard]

Near cross globe heights linking up on the control, I’m an optimist but if that comes off I will eat my hat! That strong Pacific high seems to be becoming a real driver.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What day is it??? 

Its Sunday!!! And it's time for me to frof at the mouth like a rabid dog... Some lovely ensembles out to day 7....only got through half of them as well..... Me love it long time.... Let the chase begin...

[SMU]

PTB 3 & 4 have the infamous black hole pressure anomaly over Greenland at 180 !

 

[Northern Sky]

The last few GFS runs in far FI keep churning out crazy cold/cool zonality. Just once I'd love to see it actually happen. Wind, rain, sleet, the kitchen sink. I would love that sort of weather!

[Methuselah]

Things look very interesting, at T+384...Not that they'll verify, necessarily, just that cold zonality can deliver some pleasant surprises:

    

And it only needs one amplification to get stuck...

[SMU]

So here is the final Ensemble watch - of note there is a small move to UKMO solution due to the extreme amplification the atlantic slider low as 120> 144 slides at a more acute angle SE rather than ESE

Anyway here we are for 138 > Confidence 85%
 

 

What I want to draw everyones attention to is 'Phase 2' if you like where you get a kink in the block indicating energy energy moving SE This will then sustain the cold 

* Quite a few ENS support this - which is why the graphs have elongated the cold *

So ENS watch has included T150 now for the zone to look at-

The mean washes this out however theres an Ensemble on hand to emphasise the point -

Hope this helps 

Best S

[knocker]

A lot of negative anomalies on the ext GEFS mean this evening

The tpv over the Pole with some amplification North America but the noted feature is the strong upper flow connecting the vortex trough extensions down the eastern seaboard and Europe, albeit the Atlantic subtropical high does maintain some influence. Indicating unsettled but probably a N/S split

 

[Paul_1978]

50 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS short enesmbles showing significant improved cold prospects over the 00z

 

I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run. 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run. 

The right one only goes up to 192 hours, so it make's it look better.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I don’t think I have ever seen one graph so scattered and then the next with hardly any scatter at all. Seems unusual to have consecutive charts showing that level of change from seemingly not having a clue on one run, to being on completely the same page on the next run. 

The second Graph is D1-8, the First graph is D1-16.

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

The last few GFS runs in far FI keep churning out crazy cold/cool zonality. Just once I'd love to see it actually happen. Wind, rain, sleet, the kitchen sink. I would love that sort of weather!

Here's that kitchen sink you ordered.. 

  

Anyway.. Here's the GEFS mean sea level pressure anomaly showing that low for the weekend perhaps mostly slipping to the south with that high toppling over but you can see the Atlantic low pressure systems already putting high amounts of pressure on that high come next week so a resumption of Atlantic dominated conditions seems likely at this stage after perhaps colder conditions early next week.. this an anomaly but it quite clearly shows where areas of high and low pressure are ofcourse.

Finally the Gem rainfall accumulation as I didn't post it earlier upto 1st December. Wettest for southern areas but drier conditions for a time thereafter.

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by jordan smith

[Mike Poole]

Comparing ECM with GEM at T120, you could argue more prone or less prone to amplification, certainly that second push of heights is in play, ECM first:

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

The midweek low with the ecm. Interesting reverse movement south east which I'm taking as being down to the secondary energy flow around the high cell. Any thoughts @johnholmes

Edited November 24, 2019 by knocker

[Weathizard]

This thread is going to get busy....

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Comparing ECM with GEM at T120, you could argue more prone or less prone to amplification, certainly that second push of heights is in play, ECM first:

 

Sorry but can you explain further? What exactly is "amplification" ? Is the ECM better or worse on this time?

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

This thread is going to get busy....

That low is going to slide into some pretty cold air

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, somewhere between the GEM and UKMO at same time, in that order:

Edited November 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

Yes ECM is vertical like 2010

2010

Edited November 24, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Ali1977]

Just now, Weathizard said:

This thread is going to get busy....

Midlands north only place cold enough for snow tying in with that low - prob high ground 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240, somewhere between the GEM and UKMO at same time, in that order:

You mean t144? Very nice ecm