Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - late November


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

I’m quite liking the possibilities moving on from the 168 gfs operational...

Going forward on this particular run and it’s quickly flattened allowing the Atlantic back in toppling the block. However at day 7 plus, all options still open IMO, so for me a good chart overall.

2C85A388-C7EB-49B9-9F52-18D8C9D01C59.thumb.png.78ee36c91cd8e28abc00f8b2df421217.png
 

edit....and not to shabby to start proper winter (just noticed it’s for 1st December).

Edited by chris55
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
28 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

That's correct - those uppers are certainly cold enough.. the lower ground may be a bit more marginal but above let's say 150m it'd be fine

Far to early to even work out where any precipitation may fall though.

Correct it will probable skirt the southern coast at the rate the cold is advancing run by run

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I’m quite liking the possibilities moving on from the 168 gfs operational...

Going forward on this particular run and it’s quickly flattened allowing the Atlantic back in toppling the block. However at day 7 plus, all options still open IMO, so for me a good chart overall.

2C85A388-C7EB-49B9-9F52-18D8C9D01C59.thumb.png.78ee36c91cd8e28abc00f8b2df421217.png
 

edit....and not to shabby to start proper winter (just noticed it’s for 1st December).

It turns poor for a few days afterwards and then...

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Northern Hemisphere 12Z

There's something happening in the atmosphere for heights to regularly want to visit Greenland. Doesn't look too stable but the fact it keeps getting modelled is obvs a good thing

Edited by LRD
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Were the Atlantic ridge to hold, this could be very interesting indeed?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

FI on the 12z GFS not too shabby either ??‍♂️

E74217E2-3840-4D10-B645-DEB671BC4823.png

098C16E4-75C8-4D0A-9622-400D03D13637.png

Yes GEM now coming on board, big improvement when compared to its 00z run!:oldgood:

gem-0-192.png

gem-1-192.png

gem-0-228.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Nearer to the end of the run and the GEM 12Z shows the Atlantic ridge collapsing over the UK. But it would put an end to all the rain that’s been raiding the UK and provide a chance for places to dry out a bit.

BE1C3B9C-9E21-4B53-935C-FD40EB008963.thumb.png.150308c2b18ce34e2edcbf990efb31cf.pngE0A77FC1-CCAE-48AE-A2B8-7EB973512EF2.thumb.png.8886fd26fe5a2c82bb4d1accc9f10dea.png5E10B5B0-E614-4E41-A7E0-C14F68E941DA.thumb.png.9b624a1e1bbd72ba929e09085e373fa9.pngDBD394DD-DD76-4AC5-9F99-4A561D3DB606.thumb.png.fe7b98cf484d313789a01954dd6f542d.png87DA38E7-DD8C-4980-80D3-103218621877.thumb.png.fe64b42a5b650124ebe492f79942091a.png
Maybe a chance also of a few wintry showers towards the East of the UK via the Northerly/North-Easterly flow, before the Atlantic ridge topples in.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, V for Very Cold said:

Starting to get very interesting.... that's one way to start the meteorological winter!

 

image.png

It quickly goes downhill but I’m hoping once here something better Materialises beyond it.

F6CFB6CF-8917-4307-8147-EDF1A1318AB2.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GEM has the best evolution ( prob similar to the ICON ) as it evolves into 'Phase 2' of the cold if you like as we wedge that high towards Scandi - Note the troughing down the East coast like the ECM

807BF533-6327-4BEB-95E5-5E5DA2383CE8.thumb.jpeg.35dddeb0a810bc0acc59213c7516c7ee.jpeg

And the low over Italy

3A0486D6-95C5-4F5E-B43B-0A5B910CFC73.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

For the weekend the Gem is showing that low diving to the south of the UK.

EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_144.thumb.jpg.5c107ceeeb31cd833ecf2c1f5f686d2a.jpg 

EUROPE_PRMSL_144.thumb.jpg.797c7db8c8d2949f1cc401f3b9899b7f.jpg

but then a pretty long fetch northerly wind behind it.. Vastly different to the last run though like snowray pointed out. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_174.thumb.jpg.3e8384af262ae600159b301cc479bada.jpg

Edited by jordan smith
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

And the low over Italy

Good for us, but more flooding for Venice then, Its still under water today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
42 minutes ago, knocker said:

Meanwhile the Office don't seem to be making very much of this at the moment

60.thumb.png.6f9bf3edf852cab29609c2cd72ec9118.png

Not surprised as it’s unlikely to verify at this range. Good to see some cold potential though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not surprised as it’s unlikely to verify at this range.

It's only at 60 hours?!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

I'd say the best GFS Ens yet for a Cold spell. Some very special ones in there indeed. Think the op might be a mild outlier.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...