Model output discussion - late November

[mb018538]

I like how everyone is siding with ICON now it shows the best outcome! It never gets a mention for about 8 months of the year

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T144 looks ok to me:

Let's see where it and ICON sit within the 12z suite as a whole.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

^^^ Try & envisage a normal archive chart thats clean & realistic - UKMO doesnt / ICON does but cant ever discount the UKMO because of its position so the positivity whilst improved from 00z isnt quite as good - await the 850s though bet there pretty cold !

[Panayiotis]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144 looks ok to me:

Yep, big swing to blocking off that Atlantic compared to the 00z, the signal to increase pressure once again in this area has popped up...

Edited November 24, 2019 by Panayiotis

[SMU]

The faster CAA into the UK from the 12z is manifested clearly at 120 - thats the main upgrade ( * Inc UKMO )

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144 looks ok to me:

Looks ok to me. Would pressure continue to rise in Greenland at 168 and 192 or would it all collapse to the south back to the Azores? The next day or two will tell us. 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Feb that's something that i think we all know is likely at some point in a 3 month time span. 

At 1000ft in Eastern-Central Europe?

Edited November 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The faster CAA into the UK from the 12z is manifested clearly at 120 - thats the main upgrade ( * Inc UKMO )

things are changing on every run going to be a fascinating 24 hours

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I like how everyone is siding with ICON now it shows the best outcome! It never gets a mention for about 8 months of the year

Not siding, but it’s the first of the 12z’s to appear so will naturally get a lot of interest early doors. 

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I like how everyone is siding with ICON now it shows the best outcome! It never gets a mention for about 8 months of the year

Now your cherry picking!!!not a bad start on the 12zs.hopefully dry is the key word as things move on

Edited November 24, 2019 by swfc

[Tim Bland]

With colder air in place it makes the prospect of snow more likely from the approaching low...if precip can get far enough north ?....

[ALL ABOARD]

At 144 the center of the low is further north, hopefully meaning when the WAA starts to be sucked towards Greenland it will head further North. 

[ALL ABOARD]

 

Yes further to my post above much better. 

[Tim Bland]

High ground midlands / north surely in with a shout of snow next sat night? 

[SMU]

^^ Yes deffo.

 

Whos rooting for the -10 on this run cmon !!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The LP south of Greenland at t156....held further west with more a vertical movement ....this is already a very good run with cold more advanced SW.  Six shooter at the ready....

 

BFTP

Edited November 24, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

High ground midlands / north surely in with a shout of snow next sat night? 

A possibility yes.

Edited November 24, 2019 by jordan smith

[StretfordEnd1996]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

High ground midlands / north surely in with a shout of snow next sat night? 

That's correct - those uppers are certainly cold enough.. the lower ground may be a bit more marginal but above let's say 150m it'd be fine

Far to early to even work out where any precipitation may fall though.

[SLEETY]

westwards correction on gfs  by several hundred miles,not a surprise with that model 

Edited November 24, 2019 by SLEETY

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

High ground midlands / north surely in with a shout of snow next sat night? 

1st December....yes snow a very good possibility......well....what else?

 

BFTP

[SMU]

-10c just a couple of hundred miles to the East

[Methuselah]

Something's making my snowtennae twitch!

  

 

[ALL ABOARD]

Enough heights collapsing over scandi to allow a scandi high?? 

 

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Enough heights collapsing over scandi to allow a scandi high?? 

 

Not yet - probably another 24 hours REQ from the GFS

[Tim Bland]

Wouldn’t mind access to the models that @carinthian s team use in the alps. They mentioned this chance of snow in the south next sat when none of the models we see showed it! I thought he / they were bonkers when he mentioned it 5 days ago!