Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - late November


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

GRound temperatures are different from 2M though.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

It must be ground temps, can’t be anything else. It’ll be chilly early Dec going off that although air temps a few degrees up  - the CET for Dec on a good start for being unlike the seasonal predictions 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If a weather presenter says “temperatures” what do you infer? That and the fact that they list t850hpa and theta e etc as options 

I would infer temperatures but I was replying to a question earlier that specifically asked about ground temperatures, As in  early morning minimum temperatures involve both air and ground

Edited by knocker
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would infer temperatures but I was replying to a question earlier that specifically asked about ground temperatures, As in  early morning minimum temperatures involve both air and ground

Ahh sorry, my mistake. I’d take it as air temps not ground temps 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

It really is a shame that it isn't mid January

gfsnh-0-78.thumb.png.01d2dc58d583987f1ad077fb015d718a.png
This would be one of the best patterns you could have in terms of delivering widespread, significant snowfall across large parts of the UK. Sadly, the air just isn't cold enough/in the right place for us to tap into. Snow on northern hills certainly possible & it'll feel cold everywhere but I'm doubtful it'll be anymore than that, though could get more interesting if the shift southwards continues. That's quite some trough disruption out in the Atlantic! 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM looks to be throwing a ridge NE on Day 10. All academic at this range but one to watch. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When I first logged-on this morning I almost imagined I'd been asleep for 8-days' straight, and that it had already happened. Such was the state of near-euphoria!:oldgrin:

But, aye, a distinct possibility that a cold snap (or even a notable spell) is about to unfold. Let's hope so!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

There seems to be a theme (IMHO in the couple of years I've been lurking, but I could be wrong) that emotions can run high when following each run, however the trends tend to point in a certain direction, which seems to have been the case over the last week. Fascinating to watch and some really helpful explanations along the way. Thank you all for your observations. Certainly hasn't been as mild as forecast even if this week starts a little warmer... 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

An ugly old FI from the 06z. If you like the cold

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Northern Hemisphere 06Z

Never ceases to amaze me how large and bloated that Azores High gets (in reality and in forecast models) these days

But, overall, not a bad morning for coldies with the ECM being a stonker

Edited by LRD
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When I first logged-on this morning I almost imagined I'd been asleep for 8-days' straight, and that it had already happened. Such was the state of near-euphoria!:oldgrin:

But, aye, a distinct possibility that a cold snap (or even a notable spell) is about to unfold. Let's hope so!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

Yes ed a chance of  something colder for a time. Some colder air wafting in from the ene.problem is imo are we polishing a t--- here? Much better than zonal cross and a lot of great posts today but I'm slightly underwellmed if I'm honest given the excitement???

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
5 minutes ago, Griff said:

There seems to be a theme (IMHO in the couple of years I've been lurking, but I could be wrong) that emotions can run high when following each run, however the trends tend to point in a certain direction, which seems to have been the case over the last week. Fascinating to watch and some really helpful explanations along the way. Thank you all for your observations. Certainly hasn't been as mild as forecast even if this week starts a little warmer... 

Have to say I completely agree with this, normally we are looking to the outer reaches of fi for any hope of a change whereas this year there definitely seems to be a trend to something massively different for the uk generally imo.

could this winter be one to remember for the right reasons for many including myself on here

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, LRD said:

An ugly old FI from the 06z. If you like the cold

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Northern Hemisphere 06Z

Never ceases to amaze me how large and bloated that Azores High gets (in reality and in forecast models) these days

But, overall, not a bad morning for coldies with the ECM being a stonker

It`s the same every year, it`s using it to our advantage is the hard bit (ridge). You also have to stop it generating heights over Iberia and into Europe (Euro slug high).

All fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes ed a chance of  something colder for a time. Some colder air wafting in from the ene.problem is imo are we polishing a t--- here? Much better than zonal cross and a lot of great posts today but I'm slightly underwellmed if I'm honest given the excitement???

I know what you mean. However, I think model trends have been, generally, going in the right direction if you want some cold. The Met Office see milder weather from around mid December and the models are not really contradicting that. But that's way off

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, LRD said:

I know what you mean. However, I think model trends have been, generally, going in the right direction if you want some cold. The Met Office see milder weather from around mid December and the models are not really contradicting that. But that's way off

Met office had been nothing but mild, so the suggestion of possible cold could potentially hint at a trend towards a colder than forecast winter (certainly if the last months was anything to go by, and yes I definitely have my own bias and clutching at straws). Way beyond my understanding but interesting developments and plenty of uncertainty in the strat models too. 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is still trending milder longer term thanks to the azores high!!!..but of course  the majority don't want to read that!

EDM1-240.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.2b890c1ab3bbe98fef2c20451e334626.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Met office had been nothing but mild, so the suggestion of possible cold could potentially hint at a trend towards a colder than forecast winter (certainly if the last months was anything to go by, and yes I definitely have my own bias and clutching at straws). Way beyond my understanding but interesting developments and plenty of uncertainty in the strat models too. 

 

Agreed. It's proved to be very interesting model watching over the last few weeks and there seems to be even greater unpredictability so far. Conflicting longer term signals and de-coupling of the strat and trop causing that in the models perhaps?

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

horrid o6z with zonal dross eventuallyHopefully the zonal bias of the gfs is on show here,because it always wants to bring the Atlantic back in  as quickly as possible,whenever a decent cold spell could be on the cards.

Always way to progressive,the actual outcome will probably be much different than what the gfs is showing.

The new gfs appears no different with this built in bias still showing.

 

 

 

 

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The hysteria is back on again this morning I see. All week the models have been taking wild swings from cold to mild.... And today it looks like we are back into the cold zone. My god take a look at the ECM ens.... The mean as kept to a clean and strict diet, while the op hit the steroids overnight, and is now well and Truelly juiced up! I must admit though, it a sight for sore Sunday morning eyes... Onwards and upwards.... Things again looking much better than this time yesterday. 

graphe_ens3 (3).png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

horrid o6z with zonal dross eventuallyHopefully the zonal bias of the gfs is on show here,because it always wants to bring the Atlantic back in  as quickly as possible,whenever a decent cold spell could be on the cards.

Always way to progressive,the actual outcome will probably be much different than what the gfs is showing

 

 

 

 

Yep. Thankfully it's in FI but this chart is a shocker

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Wetterkarten GFS Europe 06Z

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...