Model output discussion - late November

[northwestsnow]

Dews across Europe show the Mid Atlantic high doing its job and allowing colder air to spill down from the north.

Should put a smile  @jules216 face

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dews across Europe show the Mid Atlantic high doing its job and allowing colder air to spill down from the north.

Should put a smile  @jules216 face

Yep, proper cold uppers in Europe by day 10. 

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

The centre of the low to the south west will move north into the Channel today and although the heavy rain from the first front will track north west through this morning the next batch will quickly arrive and move north resulting in heavy rain for most areas compounded by quite strong easterly winds along eastern coastal areas. And by now heavy showers will be effecting the far south west A totally unpleasant day and of some concern for the already flooded areas. Meanwhile rapid cyclogenisis is taking place as the next trough tracks east

Some respite from the rain for most areas tonight apart from northern Scotland, but remaining cloudy

The rain will clear Scotland Sunday morning and most places will start cloudy with perhaps some mist and patchy drizzle brightening up a tad during the afternoon with the temps creeping up  But to the west the now filling low is south west of Ireland and the associated fronts will bring rain to the far south west during the evening

Overnight and through Monday the fronts track across the country but in the Atlantic further troughs have tracked east to merge with the one in situ resulting in yet another complex area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic whilst simultaneously the high cell builds over southern Greenland All resulting in a day of sunny intervals with heavy showers and longer periods of rain

Over Tuesday and Wednesday the UK remains under the umbrella of the complex trough with a myriad of fronts around so there is little point in attempting detail here, suffice it to say showers, bands of rain and some sunny intervals

 

Edited November 23, 2019 by knocker

[Seasonality]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dews across Europe show the Mid Atlantic high doing its job and allowing colder air to spill down from the north.

Should put a smile  @jules216 face

About time But oddly enough the last few years December seems to begin with a bang.

[knocker]

According to the gfs the rest of the week is initially about energy distribution around the transient high cell in the Greenland area but later in the week another upper trough trough tracks into the western Atlantic resulting in downstream amplification of the subtropical high which eventually cuts off the southern arm of the energy flows. The detail now getting tricky so best left here

Edited November 23, 2019 by knocker

[Kentspur]

I like the CFS run for Christmas Eve Wintry Precip down the East side of the country?

[Ali1977]

Looking into FI the good news is that any signs of an Azores/Euro high have gone, plenty of PM type scenarios and quite a chilly mean compared to other FI runs. P10 stands out, there would be some proper dumps of snow from this for the whole U.K. 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

No surprises from the ext GEFS this morning

Stirrings  from the subtropical high zones, particularly in th east Pacific and Atlantic with the TPV over the Pole and extension down through northern Canada and the eastern side of North America, The amplified upstream scenario has a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic around the eastern ridge where it diverges and abates courtesy of the European trough and low pressure in the Mediterranean 

This would indicated a drier and more settled scenario albeit tending to a N/S split

[Ali1977]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

At 120 the GFS has better heights and a better flow from the north, so I reckon the outcome whatever it is will be better than what the UKMO would go on to show beyond 144

 

GFS also has things slightly further West, a positive thing and it’s a better run than the 00z

ECM at 120

 

Similar to both , possibly more so with the UKMO, more noticeable in Canada.

Edited November 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

ECM at 144, drops the chance of a really cold late next week although FI may be better . Either way Not a great start to the day, which is a bit of a surprise after the METO jumped on board - can it flip colder at the close stage I wonder/hope.

 

The cold isn’t far away should the Greeny HP reload.

 

Decent ridge west of Greeny at 168, could be good.

 

Up she goes, big FI coming possibly!! 
EDIT - it goes pear shaped after 192, WAA doesn’t hold 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

The key to the ingress of colder air, or not later next week, according to the ecm, is the movement of the high cell back east between 120-144 and then the amplification and the somewhat weird alignment of the Atlantic ridge

[tinybill]

morning  all after  yesterday  gfs  runs there  could be some  white stuff about now  all i can see  is some very nasty  . storms  coming dunping rain were places  dont want  it, even fantasy world is not  looking at all nice

[northwestsnow]

There does seem to be mounting evidence any northerly /north westerly is going to be of the toppling variety unfortunately.

EC/GFS both agree on the mid Atlantic high sinking under pressure from the northern arm mid term.

Hopefully the Mid Atlantic high can gain enough traction to not topple into the continent or the fear of a rampant +NAO Glosea has envisaged might become reality..

[kushty snows best]

Not good models this morning, toppling high and everythng looking zonal after.

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Looking into FI the good news is that any signs of an Azores/Euro high have gone, plenty of PM type scenarios and quite a chilly mean compared to other FI runs. P10 stands out, there would be some proper dumps of snow from this for the whole U.K. 

To my untrained eye it would appear that the latter frames of the overnight Ecm run would suggest the opposite with regards to the Azores/Euro high. Again, not a very encouraging start to the day for us coldies, especially if days 9 and 10 verify.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

To my untrained eye it would appear that the latter frames of the overnight Ecm run would suggest the opposite with regards to the Azores/Euro high. Again, not a very encouraging start to the day for us coldies, especially if days 9 and 10 verify.

If days 9 and 10 verify (thats a big if), then yes, the outlook after that will be possibly horrible.

Over to the Ens- 

Hope its not the Exeter curse...!!

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, kushty snows best said:

Not good models this morning, toppling high and everythng looking zonal after.

I'd agree the output doesn't look as exciting (for coldies) as it has, but zonal?

 

Even after the high collapses is not looking typically zonal, jetstream is still way south and everything has a NW to SE flow to it at worse. No named storm so far this autumn and nothing I can see that's even a contender which to my mind is far from typical despite the rainfall that some have had to endure. 

[kushty snows best]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

If days 9 and 10 verify (thats a big if), then yes, the outlook after that will be possibly horrible.

Over to the Ens- 

Hope its not the Exeter curse...!!

Yes my thnking too looking at the charts, models often led the way last winter not the METO long range .

[SMU]

Morning- I hate to be the one to keep opposing the posts but this morning is very nice-

Prospects of milder atlantic weather keep getting pushed back to day 10.

Also on the latest ECM the block at 192>216 gets propped up more by low pressure moving south out of the pole-

Prospects of snow around day 7>8 with the sliding low 

Anything thinking this is going to be a straight return to westerlies may be mistaken.

Some record breaking SSWs in the overnight as well ( in terms of negative numbers )

Edited November 23, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Minor tweek.

[kushty snows best]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning- I hate to be the one to keep opposing the posts but this morning is very nice-

Prospects of milder atlantic weather keep getting pushed back to day 10.

Also on the latest ECM the block at 192>216 gets propped up more by low pressure moving south out of the pole-

Prospects of snow around day 7>8 with the sliding low

(Snipped)

Surely the air not cold enough at day 7 that the low comes into ? I'm sorry to my eye the ECM is poor going forward !

Edited November 23, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Edited to reflect original post in quote box now edited.

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning- I hate to be the one to keep opposing the posts but this morning is very nice-

Prospects of milder atlantic weather keep getting pushed back to day 10.

Also on the latest ECM the block at 192>216 gets propped up more by low pressure moving south out of the pole-

Prospects of snow around day 7>8 with the sliding low 

(Snipped)

I looked at the EC snow charts and it does showsome snow,esp NW Scotland -- but precious little elsewhere..

On a brighter note is it quite a cold run from thur until next tues with some frosty nights thrown in for good measure..

I worry that high is going to collapse into Europe though would be delighted if it doesn't..

Edited November 23, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Edited to reflect original post in quote box now edited.

[kushty snows best]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I looked at the EC snow charts and it does showsome snow,esp NW Scotland -- but precious little elsewhere..

On a brighter note is it quite a cold run from thur until next tues with some frosty nights thrown in for good measure..

I worry that high is going to collapse into Europe though would be delighted if it doesn't..

I think we know from past that it will probably will !!

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I looked at the EC snow charts and it does showsome snow,esp NW Scotland -- but precious little elsewhere..

On a brighter note is it quite a cold run from thur until next tues with some frosty nights thrown in for good measure..

I worry that high is going to collapse into Europe though would be delighted if it doesn't..

These are the charts following on from previous post. But it's all academic at this range

[northwestsnow]

^^

Thanks- chilly in Scotland,probably a degree or so below average for the time of year elsewhere.

As you say, probably academic at that range ..

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

These are the charts following on from previous post. But it's all academic at this range

Beautiful I'm liking that 2nd image for where I'm going nice patch of snow on that precip chart there (circled in grey) ❄