Model output discussion - late November

[SMU]

Looking Great on the ECM

watching for the ridge & its angle at 168

[ICE COLD]

T168 and up she goes

Edited November 22, 2019 by ICE COLD

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Looking Great on the ECM

watching for the ridge & its angle at 168

 

Game on now - even better than the 0z, Atlantic trough looks more disrupted and elongated.

[Tim Bland]

34 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Bold to be predicting the first half of December  

 

Marco hasn’t seen MOGREPS or looked at output in detail he’s just referring to ECM and Meto update 

[Ali1977]

Might not look so good to defo chance of improvement at 192 with the profile to the NW - could open back up towards Greenland 

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Marco hasn’t seen MOGREPS or looked at output in detail he’s just referring to ECM and Meto update 

I’m pretty sure he writes the meto long ranger Tim 

[MR EXTREMES]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

144 looks good to me, similar to the UKMO 

thats a good spot.

so there closely following each other that's good thing.

the two models combined are not bad.

plus gefs then yes good.

bit more cool wet windy then we get a chance, then a blip then, maybe a real chance.

[Day 10]

To compare 144 (for everybody to argue over)

GFS, UKMO, ECM

 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

To compare 144 (for everybody to argue over)

GFS, UKMO, ECM

 

The UKMO and ECM are far more similar than the ever progressive GFS, just look at Iceland to see that.

[Methuselah]

50 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I don’t , I think cold December has a real chance here.

BFTP

I sincerely hope you're right, Fred. I'm sick of stinkers, busts and near misses!

[coldwinter]

Not as sharp as the 00z, a touch sharper than the 12z GFS

[Jordan S]

1 hour ago, Raythan said:

Bold to be predicting the first half of December  

If I'm honest feels a bit like that on here  it's nice to see this forum so alive though.  

The main story this weekend and indeed next week for the time being is potentially more flooding Gfs and Gem synoptic situation for next week into next weekend below..

Looking at this range because I've done the detail for the short term earlier this afternoon.

Gem..

30th..

1st..

2nd..

Gem showing a low pressure system diving Southeast on the last day of November into the near continent with a ridge of high pressure toppling over bringing a brief northeastly wind then an area of low pressure drifting over the top of this high resulting in more wet weather. 

GFS Same time frame..

GFS similar for that time frame with low pressure sliding southeast at the end of the month with high pressure ridging north but a little stronger on this model with a brisk northeasterly wind the high pressure then sinks south but instead of another low pressure system diving South into the UK disrupting it this high builds slap bang over us and is stronger deflecting low pressure away to the north which is good news for flooded areas though low confidence on this.

GFS 5 day accumulated rainfall shows very well the pretty large rainfall totals for most of England, Wales and Scotland with the far west of Scotland avoiding most of this.  

Edited November 22, 2019 by jordan smith

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

To compare 144 (for everybody to argue over)

GFS, UKMO, ECM

 

cant argue with that lol.

all broadly similar there just weather charts that look scrummy for cold seekers.

loooooooking goood 192

 

[Tim Bland]

It’s a sinker

[January Snowstorm]

The silence says it all

A pretty average ECM run

[IDO]

GFS and ECM at D9:

[swfc]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

It’s a sinker

 

Yep like GFS 12z

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a sinker

It’s a tad disappointing to be honest!! 

[coldwinter]

And you see what those differences early doors make. We need to go back the other way to get a decent cold spell, certainly, any further the other way and this will amount to little 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a sinker

If anything, it's less amplified than the GFS at day 9.

[knocker]

The detail of the evolution later next week is going to take some pinning down. The ecm obviously tackles the same problem as the gfs with the energy distribution which alters suddenly with the amplification between t168 > 192

Edited November 22, 2019 by knocker

[joggs]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If anything, it's less amplified than the GFS at day 9.

Yes,we never seem to have lows disrupting and sliding under the high,they just barrel around wearing the high down then sink it.......

Onto the next set of runs.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

will be different tomorrow, this is too good, both models have high pressure to start the most unsettled month

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder what the ECM 1mb and 10mb temperature and height charts from TODAY's run are like, it would be interesting to know.

Edited November 22, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[swfc]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

will be different tomorrow, this is too good, both models have high pressure to start the most unsettled month

I think both GFS 12z and EC look quite feasable  imo.any major heights pushingtowards Greenland looks transient ATM.energy up the west coast of Greenland looks too big a call .that said any dry cool weather is welcome

Edited November 22, 2019 by swfc