Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - late November


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets compare the 162 12z V the 168 12z

Hum spot the huge difference with the cold distribution & pressure to the North.....

E3563BF3-55CF-4620-965A-77F11D8FEF62.thumb.png.8f5708918ce4ceb9b463e907e5e2c7c1.png027C0460-51EB-483B-BFC0-9711734BBE2B.thumb.png.18f997190342a1a897904140d30db9a5.png

Ukmo looking lovely again -

Steve dont you think the ukmo would just topple over though?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO looks on a knife edge for me at 144

image.thumb.png.a1c1bd35ac4b835ed9c6e712f3d40d7c.png

The low in the west Atlantic looks a real pain, is there enough of a wedge of heights around Iceland to direct enough energy south?

METO seem to think its game on judging by the upgrade in their outlook today.

 

Oh don't start going down that rd after last year NW!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GFS 12Z @T+144 doesn't say anything definitive; but, with regard to tweets about increased levels of uncertainty, that hardly comes as a surprise...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Onwards and upwards it is then...all aboard the Fantasy Island Express!

Edited by Ed Stone
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

WAA reload, better FI again maybe ...Scandy high FI?? 

276ED1D6-D49E-471C-AF38-E7E0699FF296.png

Edited by Ali1977
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Left it on about just over 100 - went in kitchen, come back and BOOM - game back on again!!!

image.thumb.png.cd82209bd94a590567ed7de38a71b0d7.png

Ha, it defo makes me think the 144 period is still wrong. I’m sticking with my hunch that by next Thurs night the east and north will be having wintery showers - hoping the ECM follows my thoughts. Cracking FI coming on 12z hopefully, and hopefully some ENS that have cleaner Northerlies around 144

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WAA reload, better FI again maybe ...Scandy high FI?? 

276ED1D6-D49E-471C-AF38-E7E0699FF296.png

Toppler but the PV to the east is strong

Edited by swfc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

12z simply not comparable to the 06z. Heights punching nicely into towards Greenland.

gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.f730ba0a34a445f2f0faa013fdd278ef.png

That said, ranks as a halfway house to the 00z, which had a stronger WAA surge and better trough disruption

Edited by s4lancia
Meant 12z not comparable! (originally wrote 00Z not comparable)
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Toppler but the PV to the east is strong

Yep, collapsing a little at day 9. FI still early around day 4, could still go either way I guess - whichever way it goes next weekend will be feeling raw in the wind. 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, Steve Murr said:

So following the evolution from the 06z into 12z ( 06z with its progressive eastward bias )

results in a swing to cold of about 6-7 degrees @850 at the 222 timeline....

FFC56FF6-B934-4E2F-A07B-06E60AE68D42.thumb.png.4a15acada1a444efbf9325dfabb307fa.pngC4478D24-7AA9-41F0-A559-2FC19ECE732A.thumb.png.5515e3c22d23a5b87f6093232c2968a4.png

Do you still think the 12z is wrong , around the 144 mark with the phasing of the lows? Cleaner northerly possible as per the earlier ECM

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Purely out of interest at this stage the gfs goes on to slide the colder air south east of the ridge with the edge of the Arctic front catching the UK

gfs-deterministic-eur-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-5190800.thumb.png.64ec786722232303e316e68e04a5ec93.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-5190800.thumb.png.abe7d577698e7bb734b63913ac8c0aad.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

ENS as always will be of interest.

The 06z had a huge agreement (bar a lone straggler) all the way out at D12, that looked just plain wrong.

t850Dorset.thumb.png.640f1f7632a2f334c3d4adb6eef44b84.png

Not saying that that won't / can't occur, but I do not buy that sort of agreement at that timescale.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Left it on about just over 100 - went in kitchen, come back and BOOM - game back on again!!!

image.thumb.png.cd82209bd94a590567ed7de38a71b0d7.png

It’s a 1 day wonder  followed by a toppling high. 1 day of wintry showers for the far  north?

8151D003-7358-4051-A992-D199F873E474.png

05616AD9-42CF-4984-A3DA-4F8D68550C01.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Mean isn’t what I was hoping for at 144, there are a few decent ENS but need a good ECM to keep the positively going. 

EA530404-EC81-45FE-8949-05F401975526.png

78285249-747F-4946-B718-D0F3E420FB3B.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Mean isn’t what I was hoping for at 144, there are a few decent ENS but need a good ECM to keep the positively going. 

EA530404-EC81-45FE-8949-05F401975526.png

78285249-747F-4946-B718-D0F3E420FB3B.png

Pretty good mean!!more slider runs in there maybe which is what i would prefer cos ukmo is fraught with danger!!i just think the high would topple very quickly from the ukmo 144 hour chart!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Burton, Staffs
  • Location: Burton, Staffs
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course
Another rule of GFS failure. Energy separation - Watch those lows move apart in the coming runs allowing more cold in-

The cold overall from the NE is slightly moderated due to the secondary system that develops just SW of Svalbard ( all models underdeveloped that one ) - But this system ( as noted on UkMO 144 ) could come in useful later as it scoops up even colder air...

But phasing of Lows has done for us many times before and you can't ignore it !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Steve, as I said before, with all due respect it is not the same GFS though. The new version hasn't yet had a winter run as the op, so making the same assumptions based on years old observations is rather unscientific don't you think?

Same gfs...Just with lipstick on !!!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...