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December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year


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According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one.  _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equ

On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2019-20 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

5.8 confirmed.  (disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

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EWP remained zero for the first four days of December, looks to have added perhaps 4-5 mm on the 5th with 15-25 mm amounts in Wales and Cumbria, small returns elsewhere. 

The ten-day GFS has all areas at least 30-40 mm with a few (Wales and Cumbria again) well over 50, will estimate 40 mm for the grid there.

The 11-16 day maps on GFS look fairly wet too and could add another 30 mm. That would bring the totals to 75 mm by the 22nd. 

As for CET projections, some days are quite cold but the pattern looks increasingly mild after mid-month with several days that look capable of touching 10 C. Overall I would estimate that we might be near 5 C at the end of the current run but would give 4 to 6 as the reasonable chances zone. A lot of forecasts are in play depending on what might lie over the event horizon.

I had mentioned in my LRF the possibility of battleground scenarios and strong gradients with 25-26 Dec an indicated energy peak. If we stay in the pattern shown towards end of today's GFS run, look out for major storminess around the holidays. At least most people will already be where they want to be having travelled a few days earlier, so not the worst time for disruption. In this pattern, disruption would most likely be wind-related south, flood-related central and snow-related north. 

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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP remained zero for the first four days of December, looks to have added perhaps 4-5 mm on the 5th with 15-25 mm amounts in Wales and Cumbria, small returns elsewhere. 

The ten-day GFS has all areas at least 30-40 mm with a few (Wales and Cumbria again) well over 50, will estimate 40 mm for the grid there.

The 11-16 day maps on GFS look fairly wet too and could add another 30 mm. That would bring the totals to 75 mm by the 22nd. 

As for CET projections, some days are quite cold but the pattern looks increasingly mild after mid-month with several days that look capable of touching 10 C. Overall I would estimate that we might be near 5 C at the end of the current run but would give 4 to 6 as the reasonable chances zone. A lot of forecasts are in play depending on what might lie over the event horizon.

I had mentioned in my LRF the possibility of battleground scenarios and strong gradients with 25-26 Dec an indicated energy peak. If we stay in the pattern shown towards end of today's GFS run, look out for major storminess around the holidays. At least most people will already be where they want to be having travelled a few days earlier, so not the worst time for disruption. In this pattern, disruption would most likely be wind-related south, flood-related central and snow-related north. 

I can attest to the 25mm or so yesterday, I'm used to cold and wet, but yesterday was particularly unpleasant!

Edited by JeffC
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Sunny Sheffield up to 5C -1.4C below average. Rainfall 1.2mm 1.4% of the monthly average.

Probably a small increase for this coming week and whether we actually do get any proper cold weather is still out with the jury.

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Not even a week into December and my 4.8C guess is already looking to be on shaky ground!  Starting to wish I had gone 6C+.......

6+ a safe bet in the modern e'r'a

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

6+ a safe bet in the modern e'r'a

Indeed, a brave call to go below the 61-90 average these days!

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7 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed, a brave call to go below the 61-90 average these days!

Obviously the weather doesn't  listen to ridiculous incorrect statements...........

Both October and November "these days"  were BELOW  the 61-90 average.

 

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14 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Obviously the weather doesn't  listen to ridiculous incorrect statements...........

Both October and November "these days"  were BELOW  the 61-90 average.

 

I actually went for a CET below the 61-90 average for November this year, so your statement is ridiculous!  Getting a month below the 61-90 average is more difficult these days but by no means impossible and anyway my comment was tongue in cheek!

I'm frankly getting sick and tired of your tone!!

Edited by Don
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8 minutes ago, Don said:

I actually went for a CET below the 61-90 average for November this year, so your statement is ridiculous!  Getting a month below the 61-90 average is more difficult these days but by no means impossible.

I'm frankly getting sick and tired of your tone!!

How about you stop trolling all the threads with winter is over then, before its hardly begun!

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18 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

How about you stop trolling all the threads with winter is over then, before its hardly begun!

I've not said winter is over and am certainly not trolling!  This is a weather forum where people share their thoughts and if they believe it's going to be mild then they're entitled to say so without being accused of trolling!!  I'm as much of a coldie as anyone on here and would love nothing more than a 1962/63 repeat!  However, IMO, the current signs are pretty poor for a cold winter, but of course this could change and I've not stated otherwise.  I would love nothing more to be proved wrong and believe me I will be the first to laugh at my initial thoughts if come the New Year we are plunged into a deep freeze!  Can we please just respect each others posts as I really do not like ill feeling, especially when it's not necessary.   

Edited by Don
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24 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I remember it well, quite a cold month too if I remember rightly. Lots of cold, clear frosty days with sparkling blue sky

Yes, December 2001 was colder than average and sunny.  Many places saw snow between Christmas and New Year (not me!) and the cold weather lasted into the first week  of January.  Unfortunately, however, the rest of the winter was a stinker with largely mild and wet weather and little in the way of snow.

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It's been such a poor decade for December cold. It started with one hell of a bang. I know Decembers aren't noted for much in the way of anything too severe anyway  of course  but that said it has been a poor decade. Very little seasonal xmas weather.

 

I know 80s Decembers weren't great either from a cold pov but at least decent cold spells in other parts of a good number of 80s winters made up for them,unlike nowadays. 

Edited by sundog
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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, going purely on this 12Z GFS, could be looking at around 7-8 degrees CET,

Struggling to see on current evidence how we could get a 7-8C CET.

t2mWest~Midlands.png

Edited by Relativistic
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Sunny Sheffield at 5.9C -0.4C, Rainfall 7mm 8.1% of the monthly average.

Heading towards the dreaded 6C+ territory. We have never recorded a cold winter once it it's gone above 6C. A strange quirk of the weather stats since 1955.

Edited by The PIT
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