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December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year


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According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one.  _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equ

On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2019-20 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

5.8 confirmed.  (disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

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C.E.T. forecasts for December 2019 

(with EWP, separate table places them in order) _

(number in brackets refers to order of entry)

12.0 __ 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted (12) __________________4.5 __ 105.0 __ JeffC (11) ___________________

 8.7 __ 156.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 ( ) ____________ 4.5 __ --- --- __ Quicksilver1989 (L1-1) _________

 7.9 __ --- --- __ Carl46Wrexham (35) ___________________ 4.5 ___ 77.0 __ weather-history (66) __________

 7.6 ___ 77.7 __ Backtrack (62) ________________________4.5 __ 100.0 __ DR(S)NO (74) _______________

 7.2 __ 122.0 __ 'Cold is best' (47) ______________________4.5 __ --- --- __ Prolonged SnowLover (111) ____

 7.0 ___ 77.0 __ Stratty (36) ___________________________4.5 __ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (L1-4) ___________

 7.0 ___ 67.0 __ mark wells (99) ________________________4.4 ___ 91.4 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( ) _______

 6.9 __ 111.0 __ Dog Toffee (L3) ________________________

 6.4 ___ 77.8 __ Roger J Smith (127) ____________________4.4 ___ 90.0 __ Jonathan F. (13) _____________

 6.2 ___ 99.9 __ Coopsy (64) __________________________4.4 ___ 60.0 __ nn2013 (18) ________________

 6.1 __ 120.0 __ Relativistic (49) _______________________ 4.4 ___ 70.0 __ Shunter (84) ________________

 6.1 ___ 92.0 __ mb018538 (52) ________________________4.4 ___ 96.0 __ Bullseye (116) _______________

 6.1 __ 104.0 __ Sky Full (65) __________________________4.4 ___ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-6) _____________

 6.1 __ --- --- __ Anthony Burden (71) ____________________4.3 __ 133.0 __ virtualsphere ( ) ____________

 6.0 ___ 93.3 __ Weather26 ( ) _______________________ 4.3 ___ 59.0 __ DiagonalRedLine (34) _________

 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( ) ___________________4.3 __ 113.0 __ brmbrmcar (69) ______________

 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( ) ____________________4.3 ___ 74.0 __ SteveB (82) _________________

 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48) ___________________________ 4.3 ___ 45.0 __ Barry Reynolds (103) _________

 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) ___________________ 4.3 ___ 69.0 __ Born from the Void (104) _______

 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) ________________________ 4.3 __ --- --- __ Connor Bailey Degnan (115) __

 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( ) ________________________4.2 ___ 78.0 __ Tony Beets (31) _________

 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30) _____________________________4.2 ___ 75.0 __ Ice Day (42) _________

 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38) _____________________4.2 __ --- --- __ sundog (76)

 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54) _________________________4.2 __ 110.0 __ That ECM (86) ___________________________

 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96) ___________________________4.2 ___ 95.0 __ Ricky Cor (107) ________________________

 5.5 ___ 90.0 __ syed2878 (21) ________________________ 4.2 __ --- --- __ Duncan McAlister (135) __________________

 5.5 __ 112.0 __ Reef (80) ____________________________ 4.1 ___ 77.7 __ cal (55) ____________

 5.4 __ 117.4 __ Thundery Wintry Showers (61) ____________4.1 ___ 95.0 __ Ed Stone (79) ______

 5.4 ___ 73.0 __ Summer of 95 (75) _____________________4.1 ___ 80.0 __ daniel* (114) ________

 5.3 __ 135.0 __ Shillitocet (15) _________________________4.0 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man (91) ________

 5.3 ___ 80.0 __ The_Pit (29) __________________________ 4.0 ___ 50.0 __ Leo97t (95) ________

 5.3 __ 100.0 __ Twilight (51) __________________________ 4.0 ___ 60.0 __ blizzard91 (119) ______

 5.3 __ --- --- __ Man with Beard (125) ____________________4.0 __ 110.0 __ icykev (121) _________

 5.3 __ 100.0 __ Jack Wales (L1-5) ______________________ 3.9 ___ 45.0 __ freeze (45) ___________

 5.2 __ 163.0 __ Storming15 (25) ________________________3.9 __ 114.0 __ Dean E (60) ____________

 5.2 ___ 86.0 __ Winter Hill (101) ________________________3.9 ___ 85.0 __ Loubie_4 (126) ________________

 5.2 __ --- --- __ cyclonic happiness (112) __________________3.9 ___ 96.0 __ Blast from the Past (134) _____

 5.2 ___ 92.0 __ ghoneym (128) _________________________3.8 ___ 84.0 __ mother nature rocks (23) _________

 5.1 __ 123.0 __ Radiating Dendrite ( ) __________________ 3.8 ___ 76.0 __ stewfox (43) _________

 5.1 __ --- --- __ BARRY (24) ___________________________ 3.7 ___ 72.0 __ pegg24 (28) _________

 5.1 ___ 80.0 __ Joneseye (89) __________________________3.7 ___ 65.0 __ badgers01 (63) _________

 5.1 __ --- --- __ Froze were the Days (110) _________________3.7 ___ 75.0 __ nicknacknoo (87) ________

 5.0 ___ 88.2 __ LottieKent (44) _________________________

 5.0 ___ 89.0 __ shuggee (72) ___________________________ 3.7 __ --- --- __ Beet (93) _______________

 5.0 ___ 92.0 __ MattTarrant (106) ________________________3.6 __ --- --- __ Walsall Wood Snow (78) ___

 4.9 __ 102.5 __ 1989-2018 average ______________________3.6 ___ 90.0 __ Godber1 (120) ___________

 4.9 ___ 85.0 __ Rollo (53) ______________________________3.5 ___ 59.0 __ Norrance (90) ___________

 4.9 __ 106.9 __ ARW Weather Man (73) ___________________3.4 ___ 67.4 __ CheesepuffScott (20)

 4.9 __ 104.0 __ mizzle (88) _____________________________ 3.4 ___ 92.0 __ snowsummer (56) _________

 4.9 ___ 84.0 __ Mr Maunder (123) ________________________3.4 ___ 95.0 __ jonboy (68) _______________

 4.9 __ --- --- __ damianslaw (132) ________________________ 3.4 ___ 85.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (85) ______

 4.8 ___ 87.0 __ OddSpot (32) ___________________________ 3.4 ___ 86.0 __ Ali1977 (109) _____________

 4.8 ___ 99.0 __ AWD (98) ______________________________ 3.4 ___ 88.0 __ DAVID SNOW (118) ________

 4.8 __ 115.0 __ Don (105) ______________________________ 3.3 __ 160.0 __ Katharine Basso (94) _________

 4.8 __ 129.0 __ legritter (117) ____________________________3.2 ___ 75.0 __ raul_sbd (50) _________

 4.8 ___ 80.0 __ Mulzy (122) _____________________________3.2 ___ 97.0 __ ribster (58) ___________

 4.8 ___ 93.0 __ davehsug (133) __________________________3.2 ___ 52.0 __ Northern Lights (130) ____

 4.7 __ 115.0 __ Apple UK 123 (26) ________________________3.2 __ --- --- __ Jules.P (131) ___________

 4.7 ___ 96.0 __ red1cell (41) _____________________________3.1 ___ 94.0 __ Leon1 (27) ____________

 4.7 ___ 74.7 __ joggs (46) ______________________________ 3.1 __ --- --- __ blue_skies_do_I_see (67) _________

 4.7 __ 110.0 __ J10 (70) ________________________________ 3.1 ___ 68.0 __ Jeremy Shockey (81) ____________

 4.7 ___ 95.0 __ snowray (77) ____________________________ 3.1 __ 115.0 __ Lewis028 (92) _________

 4.7 __ --- --- __ summer sun (102) ________________________ 3.0 ___ 88.0 __ Polar Gael (16) _________

 4.7 ___ 49.0 __ Bazza118 (108) __________________________ 3.0 ___ 69.0 __ Big Dave (40) ________

 4.7 __ --- --- __ dickie1965 (113) __________________________3.0 ___ 99.0 __ John888 (83) _________

 4.7 ___ 88.0 __ Moorlander (136) _________________________2.9 __ 112.0 __ Emmett Garland (17) ____

 4.7 __ --- --- __ Andrew R (L1-2) __________________________2.8 ___ 88.0 __ day 10 (124) ___________

 4.6 ___ 97.4 __ 1981-2010 average _______________________2.7 ___ 70.0 __ Steve Murr (10) _________

 4.6 ___ 94.0 __ V for Very Cold ( ) _______________________2.7 ___ 97.0 __ Robbie Garrett (97) _______

 4.6 ___ 78.0 __ Bobd29 (14) _____________________________2.5 ___ 77.0 __ Booferking (L1-3) _________

 4.6 __ 104.2 __ coldest winter (22) ________________________ 2.1 ___ 52.0 __ Mr TOAD (59) ___________

 4.6 ___ 86.0 __ Stargazer (33) ___________________________ 1.9 ___ 79.0 __ SLEETY (19) ____________

 4.6 ___ --- --- __ Summer Blizzard (39) _____________________1.2 ___ 77.0 __ Cymro (37) ______________

 4.6 ___ 88.3 __ Feb1991Blizzard (129) ________________

Consensus (median) of 143 forecasts is 4.6 or right on the 1981-2010 average. 

Later entries will be added. Table has now been checked against entries (2 Dec 0400h) -- later edits produced by you or a third party acting for you are not allowed and can be detected.  

===============================================================================================

EWP forecasts in order

200 _ LG .... ....  163 _ Storm ... ... 160 Kath ... ... 156 _ IRA252 ... ... 143 _ Tim .... .... 135 _ Shil .... .... 133 _ virt .... .... 129 _ leg

123 _ Rad D .... ....122 _ cold ... ... 121 _ Kent .... .... 120 _ Rel .... .... 117.4 _ TWS ... ... 115 _ apuk, pinw, Lew, Don ... 114 _ Dean ... ... 113 _ brm

112 _ EG, Reef... ... 111.1 _ SF ... 111 DT ... ... 110 _ J10, ECM, icykev ... .... 106.9 _ ARW ... ... 105 _ JeffC .... .... 104.2 _ cw ... ... 104 _ Sky Full, mizz ... ... 

102.5 _ 89-18 .... .... 101 _ sell .... .... 100 _ Twi, DR(S)NO, JW ... ... 99.9 _ Coop ... ... 99.0 _ J888, AWD  .... ... 97.4 _ 81-10 .... ....97 _ r i b, RG

 96 _ red1, bulls, BFTP ... ... 95 _ jon, sray, EdS. Ricky ...  94 _ V vc, Leon1 ... ...  93.3 _ wx26 .... .... 93 _ daveh ... ... 92 _ mb, snowsum, Matt, ghon

 91.4 _ KW .... ... 90 _ JonF., syed, swfc, Godb con... 89 _ shug ... ...  88.3 _ Feb91 ... ... 88.2 _ lot ... ... 88 _ PG, DS, day10, Moor,sea .... .... 87 _ OddS ... ...

 86 _ star, WinH, Ali ... ...  85 _ cmonk, Rollo, MIA, lou ... ... 84 _ mnr, MrM ... ...  80 _ Pit, jones, dan*, Mul ... ... 79 _ SLE ... ... 78 _ Bobd, Tony

 77.8 _ RJS, ... ... 77.7 _ cal, back ... ... 77 _ strat, cym, w-h, Boof ... ...  76 _ stew ... ...  75 _ IceD, raul, nick ... ... 74.7 _ joggs ... ... 74 _ SteveB ... ...  73 Sum95

 72 _ peg ... ... 71.4 _ sawan ... ...  70 _ SMurr, shunt ... ...  69 _ BigD, BFTV ... ... 68 _ JerS ... ...  67.4 _ CPS .... .... 67 mark ... ... 65 _ badg

 60 _ nn2013, bliz91 ... ... 59 _ DRL, Norr .... .... 52 _ Toad, NorLig .... .... 50 _ Leo ... ... 49 _ Baz ... ... 45 _ fre, BarR

---------------------------

119 entries, median (consensus) value is 90 mm. 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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On 30/11/2019 at 20:05, Roger J Smith said:

Welcome aboard various newbies and lost part-timers from the mists of time ...

... I foresee a mild-dominated month after this first few days of cold, so will be going with 6.4 and 77.8 mm as the first half won't produce much, getting more active by Christmas-New Years. Severe cold is probably coming at some point, just don't think it will be this month aside from 1st to 3rd running perhaps 1.5 to 2.0. (that means I am actually saying 7.0 for the rest of the month to get to 6.4). Hate to bring up this analogue but it looks a bit like Dec 2006 which I think had a few cold days and a lot of milder ones. However 1794 is also a good pattern match for the autumn and this December so there is that. 

(note -- the usual table of entries will appear but it may be a few hours after midnight as I won't even get started on it until then, in my time zone it's just noon and we're headed out for the day).

So, you think severe cold could be likely in January or February?

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2 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

SO many people, so many decent temps taken with 5 plus people. Not sure it will be far enough from the average to gamble low or high.
Left page open and totally forget to enter on time again.

4.4c

88mm

Yes, it's great to see such a massive turnout of newbies (to this thread), I recognize most of the names from those summer heat wave contests that they also entered.

As to scoring, this was already one reason why I half-step the later entries and don't distinguish (in scoring order) between people tied on either side of an EWP outcome. This month, since I have to deal with more than 100 entrants, I will be dropping later entries by 0.05 rather than 0.1 because all the steps will be 0.1. Late penalties will remain 0.2 per day late. 

We should have a separate contest to predict the number of newbies who return to forecast in January. There are probably at least fifty since a normal CET turnout is 65-70 and EWP in the mid to high 40s. I thank them all for choosing to enter both contests too, seems like with one or two exceptions, all newbies went into both, and I see a couple of veteran CET-only forecasters taking the EWP plunge. 

As to that late thing, too bad there isn't something like a printout of dates that you could put on a wall or your desk, with a picture attached to draw your eye. Surprised nobody ever thought of that, seems like it might work. 

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1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2018)

... since we have quite a few new entrants to our CET forecast contest, this table will be the basis for some daily reports you'll be seeing from Summer Sun, who will post the running CET values (first to previous day's date as reported here

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

and while they still use 1961-90 data for their anomalies, we also have 1981-2010 available in this table. Column 2 shows you the daily averages while column 3 shows the mean running CET to that date. Columns 4 and 5 show the all-time record values for daily mean CET (the average of max and min, obviously the max and min go a bit outside these values). And the final two columns show the highest and lowest values that any month since 1772 has managed to set for running CET. 

Meanwhile, I will update the EWP tracker information based on latest available data on Hadley EWP site and 24h rainfall maps on meteociel to bring them right up to the latest possible time (as they are reported about 1-2 days after the fact on the Hadley website). Here's a link to that:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

One other thing, in case you hadn't worked this out, J10 is your host for CET forecasts and scores them at end of month. I am your host for EWP. So direct any questions you might have about scoring or reporting issues to the person in charge in each case. Thanks. 

 

 ____________________ Daily record values _______ Extremes of running CET

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN _______ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) ____ 12.1 (1775) __ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) ____ 11.1 (1775) __ --3.4 (1796)

03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879) ____ 10.9 (1985) __ --3.1 (1879)

04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925) _10.9 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) ____ 10.6 (1985) __ --3.2 (1879)

06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) ____ 10.7 (1898) __ --3.3 (1879)

07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879) ____ 10.3 (2015) __ --3.64(1879)

08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) ____ 10.4 (2015) __ --3.65(1879)

09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) ____ 10.1 (2015) __ --3.2 (1879)

10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784) ____ 9.9 (1979, 2015)_--2.8 (1879)

11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) ____ 9.7 (1898,2000)_--2.8 (1879)

12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981) _____ 9.9 (2000) __ --2.7 (1879)

 13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981) _____ 9.7 (2000) __ --2.4 (1879)

14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878) _____ 9.4 (2000) __ --2.1 (1879)

15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788) _____ 9.2 (1898) __ --1.6 (1879)

16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) _____ 9.1 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) _____ 9.3 (2015) __ --1.3 (1879)

18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) _____ 9.5 (2015) __ --1.2 (1879)

19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1879)

20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __--0.9 (1878,79)

21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.0 (1878, 2010)

23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (1878, 2010)

24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (1878)

25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _--10.8 (1796) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.5 (1878)

26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798) _____ 9.6 (2015) __ --1.4 (1878, 2010)

27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.4 (2010)

28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.3 (2010)

29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --1.1 (2010)

30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870) _____ 9.8 (2015) __ --0.9 (2010)

31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783) _____ 9.7 (2015) __ --0.8 (1890)

________________________________________________________________ 

So from this we see that 2015 had one crack at being warmest Dec (7th to 10th), fell out of first place for a while, then resumed the lead from 16th to end of month. The closest to 2015 that any year came after the 20th was 8.7 (1898 - 21st). As for 2010, it moved into first by the 21st, had a running battle with 1878, shook that off but got nipped at the very end by 1890 which never held the lead at any other stage. Other noteworthy late negative running CET values would include 1788 which was -0.4 on 23rd and -0.3 on 30th-31st, 1796 which was running at -1.0 from 26th to 28th, 1844 which was -0.2 on 25th, 1879 held on at -0.4 to 25th, and more recently 1981 was running at -0.2 from 24th to 27th (finished 0.3). 

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2.4c to the 2nd

2.6c below the 61 to 90 average

3.4c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 2.4c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 2.4c to the 1st & 2nd

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I was erring on side of caution.  GFS is what I believe will occur, but the caution was the southernmost thrust of any cold.  That remains the caution, but if on Friday we stair at the same outlook.....then sub 2c is well within a shout.  Scotland and Far north of England is a given for a very low monthly mean

 

BFTP

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I'd be interested to know the sunshine stats for the first few days of the month- it has been extremely sunny here with another day of almost unbroken sunshine today. I can't remember many sunnier starts to December. The last 2 days have felt fairly mild as well with clear sky and little wind.

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2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

2005 or 2014 are probably the sunniest Decembers for most along with possibly 2010.

you can get the sunshine data here just select the region and then sunshine

uk_and_regional_series.jpg
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

Download time-series of monthly, seasonal and annual values. Files can be downloaded in rank or year order.

here are the top Decembers (sunshine hours)

England 75.7 2001

Scotland 43.7 2001

Wales 73.5 2001

Northern Ireland  61.5 2010

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