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Roger J Smith

December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year

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1 hour ago, seaside 60 said:

Dont you think thats because the PV is forming later every year now allowing for more of a meridianal flow, till the switch flips when the Arctic properly gets cold start of December.
Its given us down here far more frosts early in the autumn than I can ever remember and I am right next to the sea which early season is warm and stops frosts normally.

I could be wrong but it seems to me that late autumns are getting somewhat colder, along with late winter/early Spring, but what I consider to be mid winter, IE, December from around the solstice to mid February are generally mild or very mild. I certainly notice this around here with frosts in November and then snow sometimes turning up in late February, March and April.

I know the PV eases off generally from around February time but it's more to do with HP setting up shop in the wrong places in winter to deliver cold to Western Europe because it's usually positioned over the UK or near by to the south and not further out west in the Atlantic, this is why we see blast after blast of cold to places like Greece, Turkey, and North Africa. Can't remember the last decent northerly or northwesterly, they were quite common years ago in winter. 

Edited by snowray

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking like the final figure will be around 5.8c that would make it 1.1c colder than December 2018

Goes to show how mild last December was relatively speaking.

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2 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Dont you think thats because the PV is forming later every year now allowing for more of a meridianal flow, till the switch flips when the Arctic properly gets cold start of December.
Its given us down here far more frosts early in the autumn than I can ever remember and I am right next to the sea which early season is warm and stops frosts normally.

Sums up my thoughts (re the PV). November seems to be frostier than December these days!

Snowray: last decent north-westerly month I remember was January 2015.

Edited by Relativistic

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4 hours ago, Don said:

Goes to show how mild last December was relatively speaking.

Dec 2018 was the second mildest since 1988, at 6.9 CET.  So this December should be a bit colder than 2018, but still above average.

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56 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Late January 2019 had some decent north-westerlies. 

Highlight of winter 2018/19 (from a cold perspective).  However, it will probably be remembered for the summer like weather at the end of February!

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6 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Dec 2018 was the second mildest since 1988, at 6.9 CET.  So this December should be a bit colder than 2018, but still above average.

Yes, this December will likely be a degree colder than last year.

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Yes, this December will likely be a degree colder than last year.

Although Dec 2019 has not seen any significant spells of mild weather in it - just average to slightly above for most of the month.  It is the lack of any cold snaps this month that has kept the overall CET above average rather than significant mild spells.

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13 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although Dec 2019 has not seen any significant spells of mild weather in it - just average to slightly above for most of the month.  It is the lack of any cold snaps this month that has kept the overall CET above average rather than significant mild spells.

What would you class as significantly mild? 11 days above 7.0°C min/max avg and some very high temperatures in Scotland. 

Edited by Optimus Prime

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1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

What would you class as significantly mild? 11 days above 7.0°C min/max avg and some very high temperatures in Scotland. 

Very high temperatures in Scotland would not be reflected in the CET area.  I class significantly mild as days in double figures in December.  They were a few of them this month from around the 6th to the 10th and briefly on the 19th.  In actual fact in this so called very mild spell in the last few days of this month, temperatures have varied widely across the country, actually as you say it has been warmest in Scotland but less so over the CET area.  Across the CET area some places have got into double figures since the 27th, but some places have remained in single figures, with some places also having much colder nights than others.  A difficult five days for the CET to mirror how warm certain parts of the country have been.

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EWP was reported to be 121 mm after 30 days. I can't see it adding anything for the 31st, but will check that out tomorrow morning and confirm the following top five (to be further adjusted when they report a more detailed final version on the 5th). 

 

Kentspur __ 121 mm (within 0.5)

'cold is best' __ 122 mm (0.5-1.5 err)

Relativistic __ 120 mm (tied 0.5-1.5 err)

Radiating Dendrite __ 123 mm (1.5-2.5 err)

Thundery Wintry Showers __ 117.4 mm (3.1-4.1 err)

The error estimates assume that the actual value is between 120.5 and 121.5 mm. But it may turn out to be slightly outside that range, changing the final leaderboard.

The top ten are rounded out by the four who went for 115 mm and legritter at 129 mm. 

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On 19/11/2019 at 14:32, Timmytour said:

5.8C

Upping my game on the rainfall..... I'm going for 143mm (this almost guarantees that my usual 77mm will come in this month!)

 

Out on the rainfall but optimistic on the CET....

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Sunny Sheffield finishes on 5.4C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 73.7mm 84.8% of the monthly average.

Rainfall for the year 1132.6mm 135.4% of the monthly average.

Average temp for the year 10.2C +0.4C above average

Average yearly high 13.8C

Average yearly Low 6.5C

 

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Posted (edited)

5.8 confirmed. 

(disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

Edited by Roger J Smith

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Posted (edited)

According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one. 

_ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equal errors 2nd to 10th, order of entry determines your ranking)

 

01 __ 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( 4 ) 

 

02 __ 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( 5 ) 

03 __ 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( 7 ) 

04 __ 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30) 

05 __ 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38) 

06 __ 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48) 

07 __ 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54) 

08 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) 

09 __ 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96) 

10 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) 

______________________________________________________

Best combined forecast appears to be Kentspur (7th, 1st = 8 rank points)

Next would be Pinball Wizard (5th, 6th = 11 rank points)

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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At 5.8c December 2019 shares the same mean CET with December's:

1723

1826

1831

1865

1922

1929

1949

1972

1979

1997

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Happy days my first monthly CET and rainfall prediction. I'm glad I called the rainfall totals near enough spot on I just had a feeling it would be a pretty wet month looking at all the data available and not particularly cool

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22 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

5.8 confirmed. 

(disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

Thanks for doing this really enjoyed following.

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Thanks ... a few of the many new entrants who joined the December contest may not have realized that this is part of an ongoing monthly competition. If you haven't already seen the thread or entered Jan 2020, have a look in the topics list. You can still enter up to the end of Friday 3rd. 

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On 01/01/2020 at 11:30, Roger J Smith said:

According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one. 

_ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equal errors 2nd to 10th, order of entry determines your ranking)

 

01 __ 5.8 __ 143.0 __ Timmytour ( 4 ) 

 

02 __ 5.9 ___ 85.0 __ cheeky_monkey ( 5 ) 

03 __ 5.9 __ 111.1 __ Stationary Front ( 7 ) 

04 __ 5.7 ___ 90.0 __ swfc (30) 

05 __ 5.7 __ 115.0 __ Pinball Wizard (38) 

06 __ 5.9 __ 101.0 __ selliso (48) 

07 __ 5.7 __ 121.0 __ Kentspur (54) 

08 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ dancerwithwings (57) 

09 __ 5.7 ___ 71.4 __ sawan (96) 

10 __ 5.9 __ --- --- __ Fozfoster (100) 

______________________________________________________

Best combined forecast appears to be Kentspur (7th, 1st = 8 rank points)

Next would be Pinball Wizard (5th, 6th = 11 rank points)

 

 

 

 

 

6th place!! New year, new career?? 🙂

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As expected the provisional EWP ended up being 121 mm. I will work on the excel file for scoring but will release that after the 5th when a more precise value is known (then perhaps no tied scores if they come up with any decimal ending except 0 or 5). 

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Posted (edited)

I have gone through the figures, it took longer than normal due to the total number of entries.

Monthly Scores

image.thumb.png.83e19b1e82b1d3dd2578e06addf8f6c3.png

Overall Scores

image.thumb.png.e3415a92291e77bac7abf3efb639a310.png

Excel Spreadsheet

If you rename the file as an XLSX File it should work fine.

Dec 19 CET.xlsx

 

Edited by J10

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The EWP has been recorded now as 121.6 mm. 

This slightly alters the previous report on our top ten, with these being the top 15 scores ...

FORECASTER ___________ fcst __ err __ Points

'cold is best' _____________ 122 __ +0.4 __10.00

Kentspur ________________121 __--0.6 ___9.92 __ best combined ranks (7th CET, 2nd EWP for 9)

Radiating Dendrite ________123 __+1.4 ___ 9.83

Relativistic ______________ 120 __--1.6 ___ 9.75

Thundery Wintry Showers __117.4 _--4.2 ___ 9.66

AppleUK123 _____________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.58

Pinball Wizard ____________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.53 __ 2nd best combined (5th, 7th = 12)

Lewis028 ________________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.48

Don ____________________115 __--6.6 ___ 9.43

legritter _________________ 129 __ +7.4 ___9.24

DeanE __________________ 114 __ --7.6 ___9.15

brmbrmcar _______________113 __ --8.6 ___9.07

Emmett Garland __________ 112 __ --9.6 ___ 8.98

Reef ___________________ 112 __ --9.6 ___ 8.93

Stationary Front __________ 111.1 _ --10.5 __8.81

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The full scoring can be seen here:

 

EWP201920DEC.xlsx

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Also, a report on how the three robotic forecasters did ... first, in the CET ...

Consensus and 1989-2018 both had 4.9 as their forecast. That had an error of -0.9 C and was ranked 38th to 42nd for 71.1-73.9 points.

The 1981-2010 normal had 4.6, error of -1.2 C. Counting equal errors at 7.0, this was ranked 60th to 67th for 53.5-58.5 points.

In the EWP, consensus (90 mm) did worse than the two normals, all three finished from about one third of the way down the table for the normals, to almost the halfway point for consensus.

In both cases, about one third of the forecasts beat all three of the robots, although the number of people who beat them in both contests was closer to 20%. 

 

 

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Hi Roger, I used to have no problems opening the scoring files on my iPhone but now they just will not open.... any ideas?

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