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December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year


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According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one.  _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equ

On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2019-20 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

5.8 confirmed.  (disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

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Sunny Sheffield still at 5.2C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 73.7mm 84.8% of the monthly average so a below avergae month rain wise is nailed on.

Latest forecast temperatures suggest very little increase in the avergae temperature and could well finish at 5.3C.

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The EWP has reached 120 mm but will likely not add very much from light rain expected around the night of 30th-31st in the southwest, so 120 or 121 is the likely outcome. (we get a preliminary estimate on the 2nd, and a final table version on the 5th).

Edited by Roger J Smith
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It is going to be tight but we may finally see a December CET of 5.9.  With the provisional CET on 5.91 to the 28th, and a mild day today (close to 8*C) should push it up to around 5.97 to the 29th.  There is every possibility now that after adjustments the final CET could finish on 5.9.

 

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December 2000 was quite similar temperature wise and the following January was below average at 3.2c. I remember New Year’s Day morning when my car wouldn’t start due to very cold temperatures in Windsor and having to call the AA!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

December 2000 was quite similar temperature wise and the following January was below average at 3.2c. I remember New Year’s Day morning when my car wouldn’t start due to very cold temperatures in Windsor and having to call the AA!

Dec 2000 was not entirely similar to this year; it had a very mild first half but then a much colder second half, with a cold spell in the last week.  In many ways December 2000 had a similar temperature profile to December 1979, which also had a very mild first half followed by a much colder second half.  Dec 2019 will finish up with a similar CET to those years, but largely due to the fact that this month has not had any significant cold spells but on the other hand only a few mild days that got into double figures.   Dec 2019 has mostly had temperatures just above average all month.

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

December 2000 was quite similar temperature wise and the following January was below average at 3.2c. I remember New Year’s Day morning when my car wouldn’t start due to very cold temperatures in Windsor and having to call the AA!

December 2000 saw a much milder first two thirds, followed by a very cold final week - this December has seen a bit of a mixed bad, cold start, milder, then average, then much milder end.

Another above average December, not had a cold one since 2010, and many recent ones have been on the very mild side -2013, 2015, 2016 and 2018 notably so, 2019 won't quite join these.. 

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23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

December 2000 saw a much milder first two thirds, followed by a very cold final week - this December has seen a bit of a mixed bad, cold start, milder, then average, then much milder end.

Another above average December, not had a cold one since 2010, and many recent ones have been on the very mild side -2013, 2015, 2016 and 2018 notably so, 2019 won't quite join these.. 

You missed out saying that Dec 2015 was the warmest ever, and very much the warm equivalent of 2010.  The others that you mention this decade were actually relatively cool in comparison to 2015.  Although that said 2018 was still the second warmest since 1988 I believe.

 

In fact after Decembers were generally very cold in the 1960s, the trend was reversed to Decembers being mild during the 1970s and 1980s, then in contrast to Januarys and Februarys generally being very mild in the 1990s and 2000s, December actually showed a cooling trend and became close to average in the 1990s and 2000s (at least for the time since the 1800s), and then after the exceptionally cold December of 2010 had passed, there has been a run of mostly mild Decembers for the rest of the 2010s (including the warmest ever in 2015).  It is now safe to say that December in the 2010s has joined the warming trend that was seen in January and February in the 1990s and 2000s.  I am not exactly sure, but I believe that the Decembers of the 2010s may have seen the highest decadal average on record.  (it will certainly be higher than the 1970s and 1980s).

I know that Decembers (at least since the 1800s) have not been noted for bringing prolonged deep freezes (I know that 2010 and 1981 were notable exceptions) but it is certainly notable in how devoid of cold spells December often has been in the 2010s (2010 apart).  I know that the 1970s and 1980s were poor for December cold spells, but I believe that the 2010s could even fare lower still.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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3 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

In fact after Decembers were generally very cold in the 1960s, the trend was reversed to Decembers being mild during the 1970s and 1980s, then in contrast to Januarys and Februarys generally being very mild in the 1990s and 2000s, December actually showed a cooling trend and became close to average in the 1990s and 2000s (at least for the time since the 1800s), and then after the exceptionally cold December of 2010 had passed, there has been a run of mostly mild Decembers for the rest of the 2010s (including the warmest ever in 2015).  It is now safe to say that December in the 2010s has joined the warming trend that was seen in January and February in the 1990s and 2000s.  I am not exactly sure, but I believe that the Decembers of the 2010s may have seen the highest decadal average on record.  (it will certainly be higher than the 1970s and 1980s).

I know that Decembers (at least since the 1800s) have not been noted for bringing prolonged deep freezes (I know that 2010 and 1981 were notable exceptions) but it is certainly notable in how devoid of cold spells December often has been in the 2010s (2010 apart).  I know that the 1970s and 1980s were poor for December cold spells, but I believe that the 2010s could even fare lower still.

Yes your right, Decembers in the 70s and 80s were often mild, with the cold coming in Jan and Feb, this then reversed in the 90s and 00s to an extent. 

Rather annoyingly the Novembers of the 10s have delivered some quite cold weather at times, this year included, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 all brought some decent cold frosty weather, pity these synoptics couldn't spill over for sufficient length of time in December, they did in 2012 mind, but then a flip to very mild, this year brought a cold start but these quickly left us, 2016 to an extent as well.

December is traditionally when we see the atlantic at its most lively, and cold is much more harder to sustain then in Jan, and more so Feb through until May.

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3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes your right, Decembers in the 70s and 80s were often mild, with the cold coming in Jan and Feb, this then reversed in the 90s and 00s to an extent. 

Rather annoyingly the Novembers of the 10s have delivered some quite cold weather at times, this year included, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 all brought some decent cold frosty weather, pity these synoptics couldn't spill over for sufficient length of time in December, they did in 2012 mind, but then a flip to very mild, this year brought a cold start but these quickly left us, 2016 to an extent as well.

December is traditionally when we see the atlantic at its most lively, and cold is much more harder to sustain then in Jan, and more so Feb through until May.

No, Nov 2015 was very mild (9.5 CET the third warmest on record I believe). The other Novembers that you mention this decade were average or below.  As well as the first half of Dec 2012 being cold, the first half of Dec 2017 was also actually below average.

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10 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

No, Nov 2015 was very mild (9.5 CET the third warmest on record I believe). The other Novembers that you mention this decade were average or below.  As well as the first half of Dec 2012 being cold, the first half of Dec 2017 was also actually below average.

Yes shouldn't have included Nov 2015 in that list. Also your right first half of Dec 2017 was quite cold, but once again followed by very mild weather in the run up to christmas - a common theme it seems in recent years, 9 on the trot now! 

Perhaps the Decembers of the 20s might see a change in fortune...

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3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Dec 2000 was not entirely similar to this year; it had a very mild first half but then a much colder second half, with a cold spell in the last week.  In many ways December 2000 had a similar temperature profile to December 1979, which also had a very mild first half followed by a much colder second half.  Dec 2019 will finish up with a similar CET to those years, but largely due to the fact that this month has not had any significant cold spells but on the other hand only a few mild days that got into double figures.   Dec 2019 has mostly had temperatures just above average all month.

Yes, I've noted stark similarities between the Decembers of 2000 and 1979, especially the first half of both months.  Indeed, according to Philip Eden in the December 2000 Weather Log, it was the warmest first half of December since 1979, although of course well beaten subsequently by 2015.  December 2019 looks set to record a similar CET to those of 2000 and 1979 but for very different reasons.  December 1997 - a very different month to 1979, 2000 and 2019 - also had a CET of 5.8C.

Yes, I think since the exceptional December 2010, December has shown strong hints of joining the other months of the year in warming up.  

I recall reading at one stage that there is no December in the CET record with a CET of 5.9C - could this year's be the one that finally manages it?

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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9 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Yes, I've noted stark similarities between the Decembers of 2000 and 1979, especially the first half of both months.  Indeed, according to Philip Eden in the December 2000 Weather Log, it was the warmest first half of December since 1979, although of course well beaten subsequently by 2015.  December 2019 looks set to record a similar CET to those of 2000 and 1979 but for very different reasons.  December 1997 - a very different month to 1979, 2000 and 2019 - also had a CET of 5.8C.

Yes, I think since the exceptional December 2010, December has shown strong hints of joining the other months of the year in warming up.  

I recall reading at one stage that there is no December in the CET record with a CET of 5.9C - could this year's be the one that finally manages it?

There must be one of the best chances in many years now that this December will finally manage a CET of 5.9.  The temperature profile for December 2019 has been that it has seen no significant cold spells, and temperatures just above average for most of the month but without any lengthy mild spells either.  Many days this month have been just 6-9*C with occasional night frosts and few mild double figure days.  It is just the lack of any significant cold spells that has kept this month's CET above average.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 5.5C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged at 73.7mm 84.8% of the monthly average

We may get a drop today temperature wise depending on which forecast you look at. Local forecast says 5C the high the Beeb goes for is 9C. If the Beebs right now change if Met is right a drop back to 5.4C

Edited by The PIT
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6.0c to the 30th

1.3C above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average
__________________________________

Current high this month 6.0c to the 10th, 29th & 30th

Current low this month 2.4c to the 1st & 2nd

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On 29/12/2019 at 22:45, damianslaw said:

Yes your right, Decembers in the 70s and 80s were often mild, with the cold coming in Jan and Feb, this then reversed in the 90s and 00s to an extent. 

Rather annoyingly the Novembers of the 10s have delivered some quite cold weather at times, this year included, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017 all brought some decent cold frosty weather, pity these synoptics couldn't spill over for sufficient length of time in December, they did in 2012 mind, but then a flip to very mild, this year brought a cold start but these quickly left us, 2016 to an extent as well.

December is traditionally when we see the atlantic at its most lively, and cold is much more harder to sustain then in Jan, and more so Feb through until May.

Dont you think thats because the PV is forming later every year now allowing for more of a meridianal flow, till the switch flips when the Arctic properly gets cold start of December.
Its given us down here far more frosts early in the autumn than I can ever remember and I am right next to the sea which early season is warm and stops frosts normally.

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