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December 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the 2019-2020 competition year


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Pretty pleased with how things are going although cant afford too many more deluges in the precipitation stakes and I reckon CET may becloser to 6.0c a little higher than I've predicted. Goodluck everyone 

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According to the table of entries, this would be the top ten in CET scoring for December. List includes their EWP forecasts if they made one.  _ (number in brackets is order of entry ... with equ

On behalf of J10 and myself, welcome to another new competition year with the winter season of 2019-20 fast approaching. The contests will include the CET forecast and the (still optional) EWP forecas

5.8 confirmed.  (disappointed that they rejected 5.9, thought maybe we had it finally)

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19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - regret downgrading my 5.6 to 4.6 now based on a few runs and some ramping when ultimately was always likely to end up zonal.

I feel your pain, feb...ramping gets the better of me twice-a-year, every year: once in June and once in December!:80::oldgrin:

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4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I feel your pain, feb...ramping gets the better of me twice-a-year, every year: once in June and once in December!:80::oldgrin:

Yes although i never get excited in June - worst time of year for me.

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Well my 4.7c looks kaput, and I thought I had gone too high. I remember someone saying to me that after a very mild and wet December it's unlikely to be followed by a cold January, maybe cooler and not as wet but nothing noteworthy in the way of cold. Is there any truth in that I wonder?:cc_confused:

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4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - regret downgrading my 5.6 to 4.6 now based on a few runs and some ramping when ultimately was always likely to end up zonal.

Me too.  Up until the final day of November, I was going to go for 6.2C.  However, there were some colder runs, so I went with 4.8C!

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EWP was 101 mm after 20 days and looks to have added about 5 mm with the south wet, central and north rather dry yesterday and to 12z today when GFS 12z begins an estimate of perhaps 20 mm to end of the month (9.5 days now). Composite projection then is 126 mm. 

The CET has a few warmer looking days towards 28th-30th but given the tendency to adjust down, the slight upward move that might lie ahead will probably be not much larger than the adjustment. Thinking 5.9 is still in there with a chance of a long overdue appearance. 

I will edit in some info that I have in another location on n-w about how that missing value compares to other months' missing cases.

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Instead of editing this into previous post, as it's rather lengthy, here's the full information updated to 2019-2020 (since the part about rankings next time the missing values occur will apply to 2020 in all cases but December). This is from a table in my CET data thread in the historic weather section.

 

Never recorded monthly CET values (between extremes)

(this is a complete listing of all values never recorded between the extreme values)

MONTH _____ Low side of average _______________ 1659-2019 Average _____ High side of average

January _-2.7 to -2.2, -1.9,-1.8,-1.7,-1.3,-1.2,-1.1, -0.5 _________ 3.3 ______ 7.2, 7.4

February _ -1.5 to -1.2, -0.9,-0.8,-0.6 to -0.3, -0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.1, 1.3 __ 3.9 ____ 7.4, 7.6, 7.7, 7,8

March ___ 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 2.2, 2.4, 2.6 _____________ 5.3 ______ 8.0, 8.5, 8.6, 8.8, 8.9

April ____________________ 4.8 to 5.1, 5.3, 5.6 ____________ 7.9 _____ 10.7, to 11.1, 11.3 to 11.7

May _________ no values missing therefore 8.4 ___________11.2 _____ 14.0 to 15.0

June ___________________________11.6, 11.7 _________ 14.3 ____ 16.3, 16.5, 16.7, 17.2, 17.4 to 17.9, 18.1

July _________ no values missing therefore 13.3 ________ 16.0 ___ 18.9, 19.2, 19.3. 19.4, 19.6

August ____________________ 13.1, 13.2, 13.4 _______ 15.6 ___ 17.7, 17.9, 18.4, 18.5, 18,8, 18,9, 19.1

September _____________________ 10.8, 10.9 _______13.3 ____ 15.5, 15.8, 15.9, 16.1, 16.2, 16.4, 16.5, 16.7

October __________5.4 to 6,3, 6.6, 6.7, 6.8, 7.7 _______ 9.7 _____ 12.1, 12.2, 13.2

November __________________ 2.4 to 2.7, 3.8 _______ 6.1 ______ 8.8, 9.0, 9.7 to 10.0

December ___ -0.6, -0.4, -0.1, 0.0, 0.1, 0.2. 0.8, 0.9 ____ 4.1 ______ 5.9. 7.0, 7.1, 7.8 to 8.0, 8.2 to 9.6

____________________________________________________________________

These can best be compared by ranks. I have blended these but the cold side rankings are in italics so you can more easily compare the high and low side ... if second missing value is not top five, I mention its rank as well. A month would add one rank in this table each time that the second highest or lowest value was snatched away including consecutive values to the extreme as for example if December hit 0.8 and not 0.9. If this December were colder that would add one rank to the value waiting to be hit or if any more extreme value already established is tied..

The most extreme case of close-to-median missing value is the 5.9 for December, if it occurred this year, it would be the 56th warmest December. If 11.2 had not happened in Oct 1706, 11.2 would be a missing 40th or 42nd warmest. But if the lone 3.1 had not happened in Jan 1832, it would be a missing 148th coldest or 150th coldest (assuming these had finished 0.1 different).

This is an edited version of the original list, November, then May and July have seen some of their missing ranks filled in since the table was first published in 2016.

This list starts with the missing value closest to December 5.9 in ranking, which is the missing cold value 1.3 for February.

If February 2020 hits 1.3, that would be 31st coldest. 1.1 would be 28th coldest. 0.3 or 0,2 would rank 11th.

... If next October hits 7.7 it will be 27th coldest. However, it has not been that cold since 7.8 in 1992 (colder 1919).

November hit 8.3 for the first time in 2018 and removed a 21st warmest value from the ranks of the missing. The next value to be filled in would be 8.8 which in 2020 would be 10th warmest.

... Also, the next November to hit 3.8 (assuming nothing colder in between) will be 20th coldest. 

May has now hit 13.2 twice (2017, 2018) and  that removed a missing 18th warmest. The next highest missing values are 14.0 to 15.0 any of which would be second warmest. 

... If December hits 0.9 or 0.8 in 2020 (as this year it will not happen), that would be 17th coldest (0.8 would then make 0.9 18th coldest).

... Also the next January to hit --0.5 will be 17th coldest. Anything -1.3 to -1.1 would be 12th coldest (then -0.5 18th).

... The next April to hit 5.6 (assuming nothing colder in between) would be 16th coldest, 5.3 would be fifth coldest. (I think we'll be waiting a lifetime for this one).

If next June hits 16.3 and it happens before any other June is warmer than 16.3, that would be 15th warmest. (16.5 10th warmest) and if Oct hits 12.1 or 12.2, 15th warmest. 12.4 hit by 2017 became 13th warmest.

Also if August hits 17.7, that would be 12th warmest in 2020 or any future year (adding one rank for any intervening warmer August). 

... If next March hits 2.6 that would be 12th coldest. 

If next March hits 8.0, that would be 11th warmest. Also if September hits 15.5 that would be 10th warmest. (these were tied until March 2017 which filled in one of several candidates for missing third place pushed the missing value from 10th to 11th next time it occurs).

... The next September to hit 10.9 or 10.8 would be 7th coldest (10.8 would move 10.9 to 8th coldest). (little optimism for this)

... The next August to hit 13.4 would be 5th coldest (might take a glacial episode for this one).

If January hit 7.2 that would be 4th warmest, and if January or February hit 7.4, 2nd for January and 3rd warmest for February. Also if April 2020 hits 10.7-11.1, 3rd warmest.

If July hits 18.9 to 19.0, that would be 4th warmest. July 2018 removed one of the previous missing 3rd place possibilities. 

... If any June ever manages 11.7 or 11.6, that would be 2nd coldest, 11.6 would move 11.7 to 3rd coldest.

If May or July hit the first unrecorded low value, that would be a new record (coldest).

 

Summary of first missing value ranks on either side of average (numbers in brackets are ranks these would attain if they happen

before an intervening more extreme value (which would raise them by one rank each time)

 

Month _________ Below avg __ Above avg ___ departures from long-term average

JAN __________ --0.5 (17) ___ 7.2 (4) _______ --3.8 _____  +3.9

FEB ___________ 1.3 (31) ___ 7.4 (3) _______ --2.6 _____ +3.5

MAR ___________ 2.6 (12) ___ 8.0 (11) ______ --2.7 _____ +2.7

APR ____________5.6 (16) __ 10.7 (3) _______ --2.1 _____ +2.8

MAY ____________8.4 (1) __ 14.0 (2)  ________--2.8 _____ +2.8

JUN ___________ 11.7 (2) __ 16.3 (15) _______ --2.6 _____ +2.0

JUL ____________13.3 (1) __ 18.9 (4) ________ --2.7 _____ +2.9

AUG ___________ 13.4 (5) __ 17.7 (12) _______ --2.2 _____ +2.1

SEP ___________ 10.9 (7) __ 15.5 (10) _______ --2.4 _____ +2.2

OCT ____________7.7 (12) __12.1 (16) _______ --2.0 _____ +2.4

NOV ___________ 3.8 (20) ___ 8.8 (10) _______ --2.3 _____ +2.7

DEC ___________ 0.9 (17) ___ 5.9 (56) _______ --3.2 _____ +1.8

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So it is the rank more than the anomaly that is unusual for the missing warm December value of 5.9. However, the anomalies are relative to the entire period, the 1991-2020 normal value for December is likely to be 4.9 or 5.0 so that will reduce the anomaly at present time to a very small +0.9 or +1.0. The missing warm August value of 17.7 is probably going to end up closer to 1991-2020 averages than the missing June value of 16.3. On the other side, the rather small anomaly shown for 7.7 in October (-2.0) is more like -3.3 in most recent times and so would be a lot less likely to fall before December 5.9. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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The CET for December 2019 is certainly going to end up above average now although there is now no chance of anything as warm as last year's 6.9.   Can we finally see a December CET of 5.9 this month?  We certainly look to be in with a chance and it is going to be tight, it just depends on the odd cooler night, or if the high stays close enough to the UK to keep the last few days slightly cooler than the models suggest.  We nearly cracked 5.9 in 2011 and 2016, but both still got to 6.0.  Can December 2019 manage the first ever December CET of 5.9?

 

 

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8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.8c to the 23rd

0.9C above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average
__________________________________

Current high this month 6.0c to the 10th

Current low this month 2.4c to the 1st & 2nd

Well, what a surprise, a so called winter month above average post '99

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EWP looks to be headed for at least 130 mm (was 108 mm after 21 days, has added 2-3 since then, and GFS says 20-25 more for the grid with some southern areas closer to 50).

I have adjusted the provisional scoring to 130.1 mm with the excel file attached. This will be adjusted one more time for the actual results. At the moment, the top ten are 

legritter __ 129 mm

virtualsphere __ 133 mm

shillitocet __ 135 mm

Radiating Dendrite __ 123 mm

'cold is best' __ 122 mm

Kentspur __ 121 mm

Relativistic __ 120 mm

Thundery Wintry Showers __ 117.4 mm

Timmytour __ 143 mm

appleUK123 __ 115 mm (with three others scoring slightly lower on later entries)

If we go a bit higher then Timmytour (143 mm) could move past a few people now between 117 and 123 mm.

EWP201920DEC.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C bang on average. Rainfall 71.4mm 82.2% of the monthly average. All depends on tomorrow too see if we hit average rainfall or not.

A slow steady rise temperature wise to the end of the month. 5.7C looks the landing point for us.

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1 hour ago, Ultima Thule said:

CET already standing at the fabled 5.9.  Given the output, a finish after corrections somewhere above 6.0 seems likely.

 

20 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could December finish warmer than November ? ?

The CET already stands at 5.88  to the 24th.  Given the usual downward adjustment, I would say that the real figure is now around 5.7.  There is an outside possibility at this stage that December could finish warmer than November, but it would only take a small adjustment in the forecast charts to give a final CET of 5.9 after adjustments.

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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could December finish warmer than November ? ?

100% certainty on that. If you find any dumb bookies let me know. :) Not a rare event either.

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