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Chasing down the wettest autumn record

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A total of 391mm here so far so wettest autumn by a mile which is wetter than 2000 at 367mm.

Not quite as wet as summer 2012 yet but soon will be.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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Just for contrast!

Rain rain rain ...

...but not in #Shetland! ?

Whilst some parts of the country are under floodwater, Lerwick has only recorded 14.6mm of rain so far the month - just 10% of their November average of 146mm!"

Some do benefit from a Southerly tracking jet.

 

 

Edited by Norrance
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A new wettest November on record for us at 172.6 mm taking autumn up to 466.3 mm of rain. This is over half the years total and it's still raining this morning some of it heavy so perhaps 200 mm is on the cards.

There is only 4 months ahead of us with greater rainfall for the year. These being 2012 with 1217.7 mm, 2002 with 1036.9 mm, 2000 with 1065.8 mm and 1960 with 1031.1 mm. At present we are on 1005.2 mm of rainfall with 6 weeks to go. With average rainfall for December we should beat 2000 which is all speculation of course. It is a remarkable considering four of the first five months were well well below average.

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I have not got autumn values as I never bothered sorting them out, my rainfall data only covers 14-15 years so about 180 months. So 180 months of data. In that time only 16 months showed monthly image.thumb.png.9706f5f05301c288b117d717df7bdaf6.pngtotals higher than ONE day this month that gave 76.2 mm in 21 hours.

Funny what odd statistics one can pull up!

 

 

 

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2019_11_rainfall_anomaly_1981-2010-1.png

 

Not sure if this has been posted in another thread yet, but I'm surprised that a majority of Britain has actually had a drier November than average so far. Not being based in the UK but having grown up in the Peak District, I've only heard about the Yorkshire/Derbyshire floods. 20% of the high ~200mm+ average is still far from arid, but a dry November in the Western Highlands seems particularly odd. 

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43 minutes ago, Harve said:

but a dry November in the Western Highlands seems particularly odd. 

Not really. Normally the Western Highlands would be pummelled with one depression after another in the first half on Nov, meaning it's average rainfall during the period will be pretty high. With the jetstream running further to the south than normal these depressions have been heading through England instead. Doesn't necessarily mean the Western Highlands have been dry either, just much drier than normal. 

In general I'd agree that map isn't what I'd have expected for much of England. I'd also have expected my neck of the woods, NE Scotland, to have been drier than average as we've had a lot of calm, clear, Frosty days lately. Mind you, we did have a 4 day deluge at one point. 

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10 hours ago, Harve said:

2019_11_rainfall_anomaly_1981-2010-1.png

 

Not sure if this has been posted in another thread yet, but I'm surprised that a majority of Britain has actually had a drier November than average so far. Not being based in the UK but having grown up in the Peak District, I've only heard about the Yorkshire/Derbyshire floods. 20% of the high ~200mm+ average is still far from arid, but a dry November in the Western Highlands seems particularly odd. 

I'm not surprised, pointed out a few times that we are a relative dustbowl (yes it has rained more than usual but given the prevailing dry conditions overall in this area for so long then it feels like a lot more to some people) imby and the immediate areas, same for October too. 

Edited by James1979

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It's worth remembering that those anomalies are for the entire month of November, not just the month up to the 17th. So anywhere with over 57% (which is almost everywhere away from NW Britain) is running at wetter than average. 

Edited by AderynCoch

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10 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

It's worth remembering that those anomalies are for the entire month of November, not just the month up to the 17th. So anywhere with over 57% (which is almost everywhere away from NW Britain) is running at wetter than average. 

Right, yes - I saw '% of 1981-2010 average' but didn't read the small print below!

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Well heading up to 200mm mark at 194.5mm and more rain since it was last measured. This evening will push it over the 200mmm mark. So the next targets for November are 214mm which is the December record and 254.9mm with is June record for here. Autumn so far has 488.2mm The yearly average is 836mm that using the 2010 averages. There is more heavy rain shown for next week so November is looking certainly to be the 2nd wettest recorded here unlikely to beat June.

The year is now the 4th wettest on record with 1027.1mm The record is 1217.7mm. 2nd place is certainly under threat with 1065.8mm.

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Well with the rain this morning being light we failed to pass the 200mm mark. Now at 198.9mm for the month. This now makes it our 3rd wettest year on record.

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183.8 mm here up to 0900 today so 28.0 mm required to become the wettest November on record and 63.7 mm to overtake 2000 as the wettest autumn on record.The first is probably achievable and the second probably not, particularly if the error in the  forecast rainfall is as great as today's . 2019 is already the 5th wettest year on record here and only 4.6 mm required to overtake 2008 in 4th place. It would take another 91.9 mm to achieve 3rd place and 142.6 mm to beat 2012 in first place.

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Sunny Sheffield now 205.3mm. With the low going further south that originally shown means less rain for Tuesday and Wednesday so the June 2007 record is safe. Autumn is at 499mm and today's rain will push past the 500mm barrier. We are miles ahead of any other Autumns and moving into 3rd place in wettest years. I think 2012 is safe at 1217.7mm of rain.

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Its comfortably the wettest November on record here with 143.4mm so far, some 231% of the monthly average. Locally, 1875 and 1878 saw 142.5mm and 142.8mm so its looking likely November 2019 will be the wettest since at least 1847 here, just like October and the Autumn as a whole.

The Autumn is on 415.2mm (also 231% of average) and annually we're on 783.6mm so still 43.2mm short of 2012 at the moment which was the wettest back to 1980. That looks very attainable though.

Edited by reef
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On 16/11/2019 at 06:42, Weather-history said:

Wettest autumns on record for England and Wales (mm)

502.7 2000

455.8 1852

438.6 1960

424.1 1935

402.4 1770

400.6 1772

399.1 1875

398.7 1768

396.9 1799

396.8 1976

394.3 1872

391.1 1903

387.9 1824

384.6 1841

379.1 1880

378.9 1773

378.1 1954

377.9 1974

377.8 1794

377.5 1944

373.2 1885

372.8 1984

369.8 1882

368.2 1835

~362 2019 (up to 14th)

Wettest autumns on record for England and Wales (mm)

502.7 2000

455.8 1852

438.6 1960

424.1 1935

402.4 1770

400.6 1772

399.1 1875

398.7 1768

396.9 1799

396.8 1976

394.3 1872

391.1 1903

387.9 1824

~387mm 2019 up to 24th

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The wettest autumns on my books:

2000 - 534.6mm (all months were very wet)

2012 - 491.1mm (all months were very wet)

2006 - 439.6mm (all months were wet, but particularly November)

2019 - 397.3mm (all months will have been wet, particularly October)

2009 - 383.4mm (2/3 of this autumn's rainfall came from November alone; September and October were drier than average)

2002 - 381.2mm (September and the first third of October were very dry; the rest of the autumn was very wet, particularly November)

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Wettest autumns on record for England and Wales (mm)

502.7 2000

455.8 1852

438.6 1960

424.1 1935

402.4 1770

400.6 1772

399.1 1875

398.7 1768

396.9 1799

396.8 1976

394.3 1872

~393 up to 25th Nov

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Another 1.8 mm of rain required to take this November past the record of  211.7 mm in 2000, it seems likely this record will go but probably by only a small amount. It would take another 35.5 mm to this autumn to beat 2000 as the wettest on record and that seems very unlikely; currently on 542.4 mm for the season. 116.1 mm needed to make 2019 the wettest year on record, which is a real possibility even  if December only  comes in around average. Currently on 1275.8 mm up to 0900 today.

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I've been taking a look at the statistics from the Reading University website - this is our closest official station. Autumn 2000 was by far the wettest season on record here, with close to 400mm of rain, or 212% of the 1981-2020 mean. So far this autumn has been consistently wet but nowhere near that. Since we had a dry year here up to late September with only June being particularly wet, the cumulative rainfall for the year only passed the average in autumn, and is barely above it now (graph attached).

So far Reading has had 265mm of rain this autumn, about 140% of average - it is notable that this excess is spread evenly over the three autumn months with no particular peak. I guess this is why it feels as though it has hardly stopped raining here since the last week of September, but in reality I guess the rain here has generally been lighter than in many other areas (and the front that caused flooding in central and northern areas swept over us relatively quickly) hence the season won't break any rainfall records. One notable stat is the average pressure in November, which stands at more than 14mb below the monthly mean.

 

annual_rainfallNov2019.png

Edited by Stargazer
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Well luckily the rain turned lighter here today than the forecast suggested. We are probably up to 220mm from todays rain. At the moment we are on 216.7mm up to yesterday. That brings the Autumn rainfall up to 510.4mm nearly the same as the driest year in record which was 1975. The 2nd wettest Autumn was 436.9mm in 2000 so that record is smashed. The year is now on 1049.3mm so we will get the 2nd wettest year on record unless December is extremely dry.

The wettest month still looks safe but who knows it may bang it down later tonight and most of tomorrow.

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Well not a lot more rain to add today but Autumn will have served up 61.8% of the normal yearly total. Amazing feat.

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November has turned out wetter than October here after yesterday's rain with 163.4mm (263%). Autumn as a whole has seen 435.2mm (242%), which is actually 66% of the annual average and only 20.6mm less than all of 2011! Its even more impressive when you consider all but 7.8mm of this has fallen in 67 days. This Autumn's 435.2mm makes 2000's figure of 296.3mm seem positively dry!

Annually we're on 803.6mm (122%) so only 21.4mm required to give the wettest year on record.

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