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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Given my earlier comments vis the GEFS and EPS any more is unnecessary about the NOAA this evening

814day_03.thumb.gif.a10daa89f4c23c73c714e877f889c0fb.gif

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1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

Ok it`s a day 9 chart but great to see colder air getting into Scandi, UK too to a point. 

ECM0-216.gif

And Latvia for my arrival on 30th!😍☃️

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We certainly need an omph..

In Iberian features!

Some rapid morphing of systems will definitely aid the eye watering 'mass' e-Euro/Russian hp spread.

And tighten the door on a gaining note...

The rest out west....is working like clockwork tbh...

And the Already talked n-hem- formats are of countinued benefits...

 

Edited by tight isobar

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Hmm. 

Did the 18z see my previous post..

 

Anyway...a little like this!!!

gfsnh-0-156 (1).png

Screenshot_2019-11-20-22-16-14.png

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Lots of room for dilution.  @upstream.

Once the signal gets locked in... Not to mention to now limpet vortex circulation...where any cold weather fan.....wants to see it... Enough already.. the rest is as per an open book....going forward.

 

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1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

And Latvia for my arrival on 30th!😍☃️

Are you going to Latvia ?...you should have said 🤣

18z is an upgrade on the 12z..just need the  runs to continue slight upgrades over the next 24hrs and we can wax those sledges...who needs Riga! 🤞☃️❄️

 

 

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This chart is incredibly frustrating to look at 

oWhat.thumb.png.a18fd41bb5bdf73173788ef50c56871f.png

Greenland High. 

Huge Scandi trough/cold pool

UK mild because of the azores high & actually under an almost zonal pattern.

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11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Are you going to Latvia ?...you should have said 🤣

18z is an upgrade on the 12z..just need the  runs to continue slight upgrades over the next 24hrs and we can wax those sledges...who needs Riga! 🤞☃️❄️

 

 

Is it an upgrade? 

I'm not so sure - I mean yes okay the highs around Greenland are still there and notable and perhaps more pronounced but specifically for us in the UK it doesn't scream anything overly exciting to me - for the most part very wet and just cool 

image.thumb.png.9588bf5a5ba50de72f717d28fabf37db.png

The uppers above us just aren't for jumping into the freezer just yet. 

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5 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Is it an upgrade? 

I'm not so sure - I mean yes okay the highs around Greenland are still there and notable and perhaps more pronounced but specifically for us in the UK it doesn't scream anything overly exciting to me - for the most part very wet and just cool 

image.thumb.png.9588bf5a5ba50de72f717d28fabf37db.png

The uppers above us just aren't for jumping into the freezer just yet. 

In terms of the bigger picture it is definitely better. Look at Greenland! See below 12z vs 18z. Baby steps and hopefully same as ECM within a couple of runs. 

D7EC607D-C6D8-4141-935D-125CBFEE8404.png

01B5476B-35DF-43CA-9AB7-7B38A0542728.png

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-15c 850hPa temperatures into Shetland on this run. Shame the azores high is having such an influence, SO close..

Shetland.thumb.png.fcf46747b798672bbff8172e3012b459.png

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58 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice little atlantic southerly correction on the 18z making the prospect of cold from the Greenland High a sweeter option 🙂

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Repeatedly in recent weeks, the models have backed down from showing  bowling closed low pressure system barrelling through the UK, correcting these into much shallower and elongated affairs aided by a continuous southerly tracking jetstream, so not surprise to see them yet again doing this.

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Despite the more positive signals for cold weather prospects emerging over the last 24hrs in the models, would it be reasonable to suggest that our winter foe, the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

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4 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

Quite possibly...but it's the interference/diagnosis..

Well before the AZHP push....that could see a very different outcome.

Minor energy/dynamical changes...Will be of massive.. major scale prognosis.

 

 

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Gfs control showing remarkable similarity to the EC run earlier bringing things slightly forward on timing.

ECH1-192 (1).gif

gensnh-0-1-168.png

Edited by booferking

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11 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Despite the more positive signals for cold weather prospects emerging over the last 24hrs in the models, would it be reasonable to suggest that our winter foe, the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

Latest Spanish Meto indicates lower than average precipitation through December and January for Iberia, and slightly warmer than average temps. That says to me that the good old AH will be present through next couple of months, as per last Winter. Hopefully it nudges North to southern UK; better than a cool southerly jet bringing cold rain to Southern UK.

Just go into www.aemet.es and click on climate services, seasonal forecast.

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The 10 day mean is really good for the time of year with -6c 850s into Scotland and -8c not far away. Should this matérialise I imagine a week today we will be feeling the bite of a cold northerly, with frosts and snow defo forecast for some. There must be some proper cold ENS 

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E22C3BD1-9BB9-4450-A49A-7137BF87FBEF.png

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Latest Spanish Meto indicates lower than average precipitation through December and January for Iberia, and slightly warmer than average temps. That says to me that the good old AH will be present through next couple of months, as per last Winter. Hopefully it nudges North to southern UK; better than a cool southerly jet bringing cold rain to Southern UK.

Just go into www.aemet.es and click on climate services, seasonal forecast.

You have always said though that these long range forecasts are not worth the bandwidth, so surely you cannot be confident of one of the more minor Met services in Europe to get January right at that lead time, not saying they wont of course but.............

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Best GEFS suite this winter yet.

image.thumb.png.97e05596f7dd5ade41133f90cd850094.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have always said though that these long range forecasts are not worth the bandwidth, so surely you cannot be confident of one of the more minor Met services in Europe to get January right at that lead time, not saying they wont of course but.............

Are they "minor"? One suspects they represent Iberia, just as UK Meto are main UK forecasters. Last Winter their Winter LRF for Iberia was pretty much spot-on. So recent track record is ok.

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