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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    This post was before what has been a pretty dramatic turnaround?

     

    sorry didnt mean to quote this, i wanted to write a separate post but this stayed on my submit reply  area,dont know why

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    sorry didnt mean to quote this, i wanted to write a separate post but this stayed on my submit reply  area,dont know why

    No worries jules..

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l

    Not for a while have I seen a +240 chart for the GFS and the ECMWF look so similar? 

    ECM 30th November
    image.thumb.png.1097d5794ce3b0e7f5096295a4608f05.png

    GFS 30th November

    image.thumb.png.d639be8668afe3f33cffb103662387e1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    As always it's dangerous to leap to day 9,& 10 charts when the evolution is as complex as this with two energy flows as illustrated by the surface charts with a frontal wave tracking up from the south west and another with a cold front north of Scotland

    216.thumb.png.ee73236e836c558ee16e1bb4cacc0c64.png240.thumb.png.8799835bbe0cd2fc98eb6974acc5d42b.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    23 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

    Not for a while have I seen a +240 chart for the GFS and the ECMWF look so similar? 

    ECM 30th November
    image.thumb.png.1097d5794ce3b0e7f5096295a4608f05.png

    GFS 30th November

    image.thumb.png.d639be8668afe3f33cffb103662387e1.png

     

    Looks like we could be playing “north a bit..south a bit” and discussing snow to the north of that low...we hope ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    This is the ECM snowfall out at 240

    E6BFC753-5444-46A8-B3C8-AA2CDEBBAF85.thumb.jpeg.abade6557d13965a3cfc36683a2bbc68.jpeg

    Post 10000 can’t be accused of being a ramp. 0.1cm widely???

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    We haven't even seen-out November yet, and winter 2010-20's already shaping up to be a Day 10 Winter Wonderland!:oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    There is some snow across the Midlands on the ECM though it's not exactly a whitout - Snow showers following on behind into Scotland towards the end of the run as colder air digs southwards however

    1317617134_Screenshot2019-11-20at19_51_53.thumb.png.d1e29d944aac3e687aec98727c3881d1.png

    But, little point in worrying about such detail in a day 10 chart. Overall trends this evening are certainly encouraging! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Looks like we could be playing “north a bit..south a bit” and discussing snow to the north of that low...we hope ??

    Possibly yes - and in situations like those living here where I am slap bang in the middle of the country it can be horrid sometimes seeing -5 uppers just a few miles to the North and something much more milder just 2 miles to the South..!

    In reality though it looks as though we just about manage to squeeze the -5 uppers across a fair bulk of the country at +216 hours but by +240 with that low you mentioned they seem to have warmed up a little and I'm not overly convinced that particular chart would be subjective to wintry precipitation for the majority of us - its extremely marginal 

    image.thumb.png.ed39694e8ae2f16a1f35a496d18ec47f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Some subtle changes with ext EPS mean this evening with the vortex a bit of a mess but the Euro trough gaining some traction resulting in some strengthening of the flow around Greenland and abating of the one in the eastern atlantic. Ergo more influx of cooler air in the still complex surface analysis Much still to be resolved

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5460800.thumb.png.e592c7116d8b646e39c7717fbfcc4807.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5460800.thumb.png.471840fa877ce6e2e351b674bfdfde05.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t850_anom_5day-5460800.thumb.png.c7d25e010fd16e81ca047fda56a80f9e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

    Possibly yes - and in situations like those living here where I am slap bang in the middle of the country it can be horrid sometimes seeing -5 uppers just a few miles to the North and something much more milder just 2 miles to the South..!

    In reality though it looks as though we just about manage to squeeze the -5 uppers across a fair bulk of the country at +216 hours but by +240 with that low you mentioned they seem to have warmed up a little and I'm not overly convinced that particular chart would be subjective to wintry precipitation for the majority of us - its extremely marginal 

    image.thumb.png.ed39694e8ae2f16a1f35a496d18ec47f.png

    At that range it’s more about the bigger picture,rather than the finer details.

    And the bigger picture is an increased chance of  cold Arctic airstream being established over the U.K.,but details are very uncertain at the moment.

    Thats how I see things currently.

     

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    Some subtle changes with ext EPS mean this evening with the vortex a bit of a mess but the Euro trough gaining some traction resulting in some strengthening of the flow around Greenland and abating of the one in the eastern atlantic. Ergo more influx of cooler air in the still complex surface analysis Much still to be resolved

     

    Not a million miles away from being significantly below average, if the core of that Sceuro troughing would just extend further south into Central Europe, Britain would be looking at seeing some of the white stuff, especially down the East and perhaps the West coast.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Ok it`s a day 9 chart but great to see colder air getting into Scandi, UK too to a point. 

    ECM0-216.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Good agreement between ECM/GFS at day 10

    Screenshot 2019-11-20 at 20.09.48.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    From the outputs I seen, the shallow heights around Greenland has always been there but instead of a large Atlantic low in a round ball shape, it's alot more shallow and undercutting hence the flirtation with some polar air. 

    I for one do like the fact there is deep cold across the pole being forecast, in theory, if the PV splits and ends up in the right direction then the chances are any polar air might be a touch colder than it would be. 

    Nevertheless, a milder spell is on the way with the lows still on a southerly track so potentially more rainfall in the areas that don't need it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    Catacol said something interesting the other day, that it will be fascinating to see if this winter goes down the path of the LRFs , or something else entirely......

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