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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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A fair bit of strength about that Greeny high at 144, all looking good for day 8-9 so far!! 👌

C3D3F4D0-4916-42D7-903A-255FF79D3321.png
mans the really cold air is closer than it was on the last ECM run.

Edited by Ali1977

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The next frame at 192 is key, if we can swing the arm round towards Spain the cold air will flood in!! 

8752438A-7CD8-4702-93C8-749694CDB8DF.png

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.c193ab21ad5504ac92a66ab816ea731a.jpg

I don't want to go much further given the uncertainty, but the possibility now exists of the whole purple entity that is the trop vortex heading towards the UK.  Possibility only, things are now happening very quickly in terms what the models are saying.

I can’t believe how quickly the models have turned to pretty decent output and it’s not even deep FI . Amazing really . 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.c193ab21ad5504ac92a66ab816ea731a.jpg

I don't want to go much further given the uncertainty, but the possibility now exists of the whole purple entity that is the trop vortex heading towards the UK.  Possibility only, things are now happening very quickly in terms what the models are saying.

I will...

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.e346670aa14c314fc0b39668ffb05038.gif

all this talk that we had heights to our E/NE for some time but i like this better.

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Heights across Europe need to do one.

Only thing preventing a decent northerly to usher in Winter..

image.thumb.png.77b35ac3105b8121eed204ef24221b20.png

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Considering a few days back any sign of cold left the charts , it’s soon come back and this time next week we could have proper winter cold taping on Scotland’s door atleast. Defo cold enough to please the Scottish ski interest even at this stage (192)

630AC4E2-78A8-49C6-8938-D5A075B79ECF.png

9795D5C4-45B7-487F-B01C-D80B8F17F4C9.png

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Choo choo. 

The ECM picks up the Batton and dosent dissapoint.

The whole PV is on the right, wrong side of the pole (depending what camp your in) 

Where is the atlantic? Anyone?? 

216 ECM

1536882608_ECH1-216(1).thumb.gif.a54f85f851e8ec9dbb912a5230ca95e1.gif

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What’s wrong with that chart?  It’s heading only one way.....cold and snowy.  T192 ECM....big snow for midlands.....it’s building....

I didn't say there was anything wrong mate.

The heights across Europe are proving a pain, of course the further north you head, the colder 🙂

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On 18/11/2019 at 21:06, northwestsnow said:

I have a sense of foreboding looking at the ECdet/mean this evening tbh.

Can easily see a big +nao setup for early Dec - we have lost the euro troughing looking at the mean, and that spells bad news 

 

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The setting up of high pressure around southern Greenland has been indicated for a while and currently is not in dispute. But the energy distribution around this still awaits resolution especially quite a few day down the line. And with the stronger flow south of this and the trough across the Atlantic the orientation of the Greenland ridge, particularly in relation the vortex becomes important vis the secondary flow. And this of course awaits resolution

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5028800.thumb.png.8235f2d012e9760133aa5890f78d54a3.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-5028800.thumb.png.af2893b91022701dcb1f1367d72edeaf.png

144.thumb.png.b06f272b6e43d8984d7fd29458fe59a3.png168.thumb.png.6baa7854f5baaaab50c363a8231d69d8.png192.thumb.png.0c1b5f0756edddf0809db4a09bca9161.png

Edited by knocker

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1 minute ago, jules216 said:

 

This post was before what has been a pretty dramatic turnaround?

 

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A pretty tasty ECM run there, would this feature around the south have snow on the northern edge I wonder!! 

88AF7DA6-CD31-4D3C-95AB-344A47920951.png

Edited by Ali1977

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this west based NAO I hate,Europe still basking in warm anomalies,when will this misery end,UK/IE making the most of limited below average animalies it seems acording to EPS and GEFS, skiing season here in central Europe looks like starting very late,what can go wrong goes wrong from the promising blocking patterns,hope everything shifts about 1000km eastwards

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image.thumb.png.c7d0752bc889aeeb257814d3a05a3118.png

Excellent chart, this, from the ECM at 216h.  PV more or less completely drained from Canada.

Does anyone else think a lot of the output just looks a bit...strange...thus far this year?  Everything seems rather "flabby" and lacking in terms of isobar tightness.  Typically I'd think along the lines of "oof, that HP over the atlantic looks transient with nothing really supporting it", yet there's no real pressure coming from the other side either! 

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11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

T192 ECM....big snow for midlands.....it’s building....

Zero evidence for that. knocker kindly provided the reality. 

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Same problem as the GFS, we get the spoiler low close to the UK cutting off the cold flow followed by a mini-ridge. These cut off lows have been a killer feature so far this month;

D10 2126364717_ECH1-240(15).thumb.gif.dbf84824b73b75cd6f6e7928b31e44d4.gif

Not sure how we can get those systems spinning on the jet from cutting or obfuscating the flow?

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For the more reliable time frame here's The Gem 10 day rainfall accumulation chart it shows a less wet 10 day outlook for the north compared to its earlier update still some rain but with the south and west being particularly wet.

907604003_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAINACCUM_240(10).thumb.jpg.e2033c0794264475ef14bf5dda2a03b9.jpg

Here's an animation of the weather for the following 10 days from the Gfs.. 👇

arhoY1FkG7.thumb.gif.1c6a009098eceee8116c04e33c70b1a9.gif

A particularly nasty low pressure system shown for Thursday 28th/Friday 29th too bringing heavy rain to the far south perhaps very strong winds too dependent on track ofcourse.

Uncertainty with that system as expected but a very windy spell seems likely at some point next week. 

Now an Animation for rainfall accumulations out to day 10 from the Gfs.. Wettest for the south and west with over 80mm shown for some spots but less wet further north and east. 👇

MtvnZNskoJ.thumb.gif.62f3e79d2c0b96b77a6d009fa65d53a4.gif

Edited by jordan smith

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