Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[Jordan S]

38 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144.    Greenland high.  

Big time!

Does seem a consistent signal for it doesn't it. What that is likely to help with for the time being is keeping us very wet. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by jordan smith

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Interesting output so far today, has something shifted to take us away from the persistent +NAO from around 2012/2013 until earlier this year? Few ideas going around solar activity now more or less at solar minimum and this is turn is allowing for more impact on trop & strat, especially with the progression to a EQBO not expected till January. Consistency key as always here.

Quite- i for one had resigned myself to a period  raging +NAO on the back of recent days.

Perhaps it is not as clear cut as previously thought.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

No proper split flow however, you want part of the jet going through the Labrador sea through Baffin bay and then back down the other side of Greenland, with the other part going under, that's when we get the super Greenland highs. Let's see if we can squeeze out this pattern enough to get the proper cold to the UK

Maybe i wasn't clear enough and should of noted that it wasn't there on the 06z, it all collapses in fl anyway but interesting all the same.

[That ECM]

And for newbies, that’s why it’s called fi( fantasy island) nh profile not to dissimilar but for our little part of the world........ however we are in the game, just need some luck.

Edited November 20, 2019 by That ECM

[booferking]

Gem already upgrading the Greenland high early on.

[knocker]

The 5-10 anomaly is a good illustration of the twin flows

Edited November 20, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Nice uppers! 

[IDO]

Disappointing GEFS at T180, with little support for the op run, three members have the Pacific Ridge, the rest are flat in that region as per the mean:

Mean>>   Op>> 

A wedge of heights in Greenland is a theme, so another cold blast possible if everything falls into place. However the dynamics are complicated and not a strong possibility ATM. 

The spread by D10 highlights the uncertainty with the upcoming pattern:

All we can really say is that there is potential for a cold or mild shot in the UK arena in FI (after D7). However the US look in for further extreme cold events.

Edited November 20, 2019 by IDO

[Met4Cast]

The GEM is absolutely stunning, best of the 12z runs so far!

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice uppers! 

Agreed, in Greenland there are -20 / -30 uppers...fingers crossed we can tap into that soon!

Edited November 20, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Wilxy]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice uppers! 

Just in time for the start of winter as well! 

[Jordan S]

19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice uppers! 

Looks like the red ensemble member I mentioned earlier  

GFS ensembles below and the operational is all over the place with upper air temperatures and precipitation definitely no trend in the longer range from looking at that. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by jordan smith

[Paul_1978]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Nice uppers! 

At T+324 hours I wouldn’t be overly concerned!

[Bristawl Si]

12 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Looks like the red ensemble member I mentioned earlier  

GFS ensembles below and the operational is all over the place with upper air temperatures and precipitation definitely no trend in the longer range from looking at that. 

With the Op "all over the place" and "definitely no trend in the longer range" probably best to see no real change from current conditions in the medium term. Remainder of November will be much the same as first 20 days, and probably into 1st week of December. 'Real Winter' on hold.

[Allseasons-Si]

Yes a good run from the gem...

the day ten charts

500mb/850's/height anomaly and jet stream

the jet stays south of the UK through all of it's run,lets see how the ecm plays out later.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Jordan S]

27 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

With the Op "all over the place" and "definitely no trend in the longer range" probably best to see no real change from current conditions in the medium term. Remainder of November will be much the same as first 20 days, and probably into 1st week of December. 'Real Winter' on hold.

The ensemble highlights well the uncertainty for the end of the month as it will do at this range.. Best not to draw any conclusions just yet especially if you base an outlook off the operational Gfs.  But atm it looks like an unsettled outlook for the next week or so with temperatures close to or slightly above average..

Edited November 20, 2019 by jordan smith

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

With the Op "all over the place" and "definitely no trend in the longer range" probably best to see no real change from current conditions in the medium term. Remainder of November will be much the same as first 20 days, and probably into 1st week of December. 'Real Winter' on hold.

I’m intrigued to why you would think that in 10-15 days would be similar to what we have had based on the ens having a spread of -10 to plus10. You maybe right but surely best to wait for a trend to appear and keep an open mind?

[knocker]

The ext GEFS mean has a ridge in the western Arctic with a relatively weak main vortex lobe in the east with associated troughs Scandinavia and northern Canada , the latter adjacent to quite a pronounced south Greenland ridge. Thus two uppers flows with one one across northern Greenland and the main, and stronger flow exiting the eastern seaboard south of the Greenland trough ridge complex This would indicate a period of unsettled weather over the UK with a rather complex surface analysis for the det runs to sort. Temps around average but possible a fair latitudinal variation with colder air creeping south courtesy of the northern flow

Edited November 20, 2019 by knocker

[Mike Poole]

ECM at T96:

Follows other model guidance from earlier...and it is big, this, we could be looking at a significant cold spell now in December.

[SMU]

Not quite the same but people will now know why I floated this chart about 5-6 days ago.... Which was November 2010 where the Greenland High developed

 

Same imprint of Energy moving NW out of Europe & North out of atlantic distorting the jet North Up the west of Greenland

ECM 144 GH Building

Key 552 DAM contour circular !

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Steve Murr

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM at T96:

Follows other model guidance from earlier...and it is big, this, we could be looking at a significant cold spell now in December.

That’ll do as starting position

[Methuselah]

Not much long-term coherence in the GEFS 12Z ensembles: perhaps they're finally picking-up on the might be, could be, possibly, perhaps SSW?

   

    

Personally, I suspect it's all Shannon Entropy's fault!

 

[Ali1977]

A fair bit of strength about that Greeny high at 144, all looking good for day 8-9 so far!!

mans the really cold air is closer than it was on the last ECM run.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

ECM going for the Greenland high it would seem

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM building heights towards Greenland..... Check. 

The vortex being kept well away from Canada.... Check. 

In the words of Paul Daniels.... Your gonna like it.... Not alot..... Well me likes.... Check.. 

Time for a Boom..... Check, and checkmate...