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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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Step away for an hour and things go right for coldies, maybe I should step away for a week then we’ll have a beast lined up 

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43 minutes ago, IDO said:

Nice to see the ECM showing the pattern change from Euro ridge/high to euro trough within the 10 day window. Early days, as looking at the GEFS yesterday they were clueless, and the 06z add little direction to how the next pattern develops. The GEFS still working out the pace of the Euro high easing east and where the other wave forces occur in our Atlantic sector.

JFF D12 GEFS:

gens_panel_jkx8.png

Really as others have said, a welcome possible change in pattern, but as always models can over react in such cases, so a watching brief to await clarity.

P11 please.

gensnh-11-1-192.png

gensnh-11-1-240.png

gensnh-11-1-300.png

gensnh-11-1-336.png

gensnh-11-1-384.png

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If p11 come to fruition i’m going to visit Cairngorms!

Nice to see the models have continued to show the same trend they were showing yesterday.This time though the trough sinks South,and we get the Northerly.

Roll on the next runs..

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Blimey .... ec and icon (and get to an extent) raising the ante ....

might be best to take a watching brief for a few runs ......

 

Upstream looks decent, downstream however...

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Well then, after so many weeks' coldish, wet clag...whichever way this goes, I'll take it!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Not forgetting of course, that by this stage, we're already stranded on the Fantasy Island Express!🚇

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A bit of consistency from the Icon dare i say it if not slightly better heights Greenland 06z vs 00z.

iconnh-0-120.png

iconnh-0-126.png

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GFS 00z

Talk about taking the rough with the smooth - maxima temps pushing into double figures 25-11-2019 😐

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.3e19421265ae5efd43e9bf3cb03d8c9e.png

t2mCumbria.thumb.png.9d92a600a1087912cc3b390bb1f0f4f6.png

 

 

Edited by Iceaxecrampon

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22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then, after so many weeks' coldish, wet clag...whichever way this goes, I'll take it!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Not forgetting of course, that by this stage, we're already stranded on the Fantasy Island Express!🚇

Nice - but.......

download.thumb.jpg.7da8d4b0de3bcbf02d9919d69a8cc3f9.jpg

Stranded and definately Crag Fast at the moment

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Much better heights into Greenland at 150.

Definitely trending the right way.


20_11_2019.thumb.png.5aba4529169850cced6ca11387d8c610.png

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Look at the flow around Iceland , this looks much better with regards a Northerly outbreak at day 8-10

37C0F5E6-6E6B-432E-9DF8-F57CD2AA1683.png

3CE62494-1306-47D7-AB6D-39DDAEFB4543.png

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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Look at the flow around Iceland , this looks much better with regards a Northerly outbreak at day 8-10

37C0F5E6-6E6B-432E-9DF8-F57CD2AA1683.png

3CE62494-1306-47D7-AB6D-39DDAEFB4543.png

Upstream looks OK, we have to keep an eye on what is happening to our south though.We need energy digging to Europe ..

edit, should say, coldies need energy digging into Europe.

Edited by northwestsnow

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I wouldn't worry to much past 144hr on the GFS this is the point were models are starting to firm up 144hr.

PS maybe have a wee sneak peek at the strat warming in the GFS FI.😉

iconnh-0-144.png

ECH1-144.gif

gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

UN144-21 (4).gif

Edited by booferking

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The persistence of heights in and around Greenland in the continued model output is frankly remarkable.

The Atlantic is dead at a time when it should be ramping up.

Also there is no appetite for the vortex to set up shop where it usually does,

 

1.thumb.png.8df8a17776567b234c5e7262d7ca832d.png

 

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So good news; at T192 still solid consistency with a Pacific Ridge:

D8>> 1366433618_gfsnh-0-192(4).thumb.png.8ce6754cfa895a96a68e98144d2f51c4.png  D12>> 472262810_gfsnh-0-288(2).thumb.png.82535a0052a214d0809e2ae6db081db9.png

As per the last couple of days, signs of Pacific cut-off low, so although not a static Pacific wave, we get locked in warmth mid to high latitude in that region. On this occasion it again translates to raw cold entering the US states:

gfsna-15-288.thumb.png.66ef863c6cd31b22d996049798082ae1.png

As per usual with the US trough there follows a sympathetic wave and the UK fights opposing forces to be in the prime target for the following trough.

By T336 still locked in Pacific warmth and no doubt great for stratospheric forcing:

990398303_gfsnh-0-336(4).thumb.png.a7a659244fb10b119ed2639e4b52c4cc.png 

Great synoptic for entering December and if we get some luck maybe some UK cold (usual caveats at that range)?

Edited by IDO

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And Fantasy Island would certainly be living-up to its name: from -20C in Highland glens to +15C, in SW England...?:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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GFS splits that vortex a treat on this run...

Euro heights draining away at the end.

Makes me feel better after reading that ghastly BBC monthly update..

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If this were to happen then surely only a mater of time before the gates are well and truly opened.

image.thumb.png.63179cc3f8a8ebbd5808518734ee071a.png

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GFS does consistently want to try to build a negatively tilted ridge up into Greenland in the first week of December and the high pressure to our East is moving away enough for us to benefit. Whether it plays out that way is another matter of course but there is certainly the potential for a good start to Winter (if you like cold).

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Looking like a slight upgrade as well on the GEFS in the early stages of the run in terms of the chances of a Northerly.

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An example illustrating why I find the clusters very often tricky to evaluate. The 240 surface analysis with the cold front Iceland > Faeroes and five sets of clusters

240.thumb.png.bbe1e2d9fd723192448d5773d3e1e84a.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019112000_240.thumb.png.9d7e91319f9cda797e8a53cb1ef736fe.png

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The ec ext eps mean 9/14 and the clusters are certainly  promising for coldies but may have things a bit to the west ( Certainly  the  further south you are) 

maybe best to let the nwp find its way for a few runs as it trends in a fair tangent to what it was showing yesterday 

 

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