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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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44 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!   -    Iconic start to the day with a powerhouse Northerly.

image.thumb.png.b763c281776b45c996998b0030593974.png

Sadly not followed the the GFS Op!! 👎🏼

D661DA44-58B1-4104-99A7-E79AF4C97DC5.png
 

However the UKMO At 144 does seem to follow the Icons route to 144!! Over to the ENS and ECM 

D2ED8C79-67A8-4107-B017-44585AD20FAC.png
 

Icon at 144

ACCF8B30-E376-4B60-A400-E21E0A18C975.png

Edited by Ali1977

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Sadly not followed the the GFS Op!! 👎🏼

However the UKMO At 144 does seem to follow the Icons route to 144!! Over to the ENS and ECM 

 

 

Have to wait for the overnight ens suites before dismissing it completely then.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Ironically not quite as warm in the stratosphere this GFS run but a nice Northerly showing up a the surface.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ironically not quite as warm in the stratosphere this GFS run but a nice Northerly showing up a the surface.

Interesting chart , I think the strat will still be toasty in FI

AC6A3B29-F323-4FD7-BD01-EBECDCF74582.png

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By now the NH pattern is emerging as expected with troughs running around the vortex over north Russia; the ridge developing southern Greenland and the unimpeded trough pathway across the Atlantic as the block in the east has gone.Thus continuing unsettled, Some spot charts

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5158400.thumb.png.1ac384de92f9fe3ab67fbd722dd3f076.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5158400.thumb.png.ad9c24f62c9938e47227a76f036a6932.png

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Have to wait for the overnight ens suites before dismissing it completely then.

6/7 including the DET follow the ICON ish!! 

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

6/7 including the DET follow the ICON ish!! 

Yes - don;t like the way the ensembles have downgraded the strat warming though.

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19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - don;t like the way the ensembles have downgraded the strat warming though.

It’s still there but maybe not quite as strong, and not sure it has much support from the bigger guns in that genre!! Still, get it towards 240 and we may be in with a shout of some sort of pattern change away from what seasonal predictions say and it could tie in with Xmas if we are lucky (coldies) - although I see the CFS has changed for Jan.

On a positive note it’s nice to see the Op and ENS have dropped the idea of a big stubborn looking HP over France - we, nor the ski fraternity need that in December !! 

 

B582D760-90F9-4796-9C38-7D05EE2FDD2A.png
 

Day 10 ENS mean still hinting at a chance of a Northerly.

85D944E2-3F18-417F-AB3A-8594217E0D99.png

Edited by Ali1977

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The salient points of the ext GEFS

The vortex Franz Joseph Land with associated trough a tad further east with ridge in the western Arctic.

This results in a rather more pronounced Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex resulting in the westerly upper flow across the Atlantic being a tad further south, But in addition there is now an additional flow across northern Greenland to the trough in the east

Continuing unsettled but with perhaps some tricky day-to -day surface vagaries courtesy of the twin flows  Temps generally around average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5417600.thumb.png.2e7f773d96076925aa7638958f4b2b9b.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5417600.thumb.png.582fb1143d228aa640fb78fe7dd89aec.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5417600.thumb.png.f2ebaff9f74f83af3a6cf9a5725d97e1.png

Edited by knocker

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6 minutes ago, HerneBayWX said:

 I see a prolonged cold spell setting up.  👀

image.png

Now now need to see be seeing far more runs than just this, however it’s true that yes, if this chart were to come off then we’d likely be heading into quite a prolonged cold spell - all looking very ominous to our north. It’s also true that there’s been significant model convergence this morning up to around d7 (bar GFS), seeing pressure being put in all the right places now 🙂 

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7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

00Zs raising an eyebrow or two this morning.

The ECM does indeed look primed. Not your standard Northern Hemisphere, that’s for sure. Sort of reminds me of this beauty...

6CA4A88E-666F-43DE-8AF5-E89637B81568.thumb.png.8d486dd88edd0bc04474321c26875829.png

T144 ukmo and ecm. Ecm at t240 is nice viewing but if it were to look like ukmo at t144 would there not be to much energy coming from the north west or west that we wouldn’t get to t240? S4, you tease, I remember the outcome of that chart very well👌👌

C322BDAD-44D6-4D5F-84F7-325981913FF1.png

D01DADAB-C685-4657-B837-73BA047822A0.png

Edited by That ECM

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22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Blimey .... ec and icon (and get to an extent) raising the ante ....

might be best to take a watching brief for a few runs ......

 

Lets hope we don´t end up here with west based NAO and waste the cold potential which will plunge between Iceland and Ireland.

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The adjustment of the ext EPS is much along the lines of the GEFS in some respects

The EPS still retains the vortex over northern Russia with no intrusion of a ridge into the western Arctic but does adjust the alignment of the Canada/Greenland trough/ridge combination which pushes the strong westerly upper flow a tad further south but also initiates another flow across Greenland (similar to the GEFS)  which allows slightly colder air into the surface analysis which remains unsettled with temps around average but a likely N/S variation

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5417600.thumb.png.76da6aae5bbf8780bce3fccbc277946c.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5417600.thumb.png.d0dbb3ac7fe5951c37fa4782a852232f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t850_anom_5day-5417600.thumb.png.a921ce5ce9cb11850fdcc7d8a7aad41f.png

Edited by knocker

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Nice to see the ECM showing the pattern change from Euro ridge/high to euro trough within the 10 day window. Early days, as looking at the GEFS yesterday they were clueless, and the 06z add little direction to how the next pattern develops. The GEFS still working out the pace of the Euro high easing east and where the other wave forces occur in our Atlantic sector.

JFF D12 GEFS:

gens_panel_jkx8.png

Really as others have said, a welcome possible change in pattern, but as always models can over react in such cases, so a watching brief to await clarity.

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