Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

[ICE COLD]

38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Unfortunately, if one puts any stock in EC , we are going to have to ride out another unsettled phase.

I have accepted it,what i really do not want to see is HP getting comfortable across Southern Europe and an intensifying vortex building to our N/NW.with zonal winds forecast to moderate there is a chance we could see some Atlantic amplification down the line.That is an aspiration at present though.

Yes that’s what I’ve been thinking ,  the zonal winds to drop off (as forecast) and bang there’s are chance to get high pressure in a favourable position for cold . Just hope we don’t miss the chance to board the ship . 

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS are a stonker at 240.

Over to Knocker to now tell us the salient points of D10-15.

Edited November 19, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

The ext EPS doesn't have any significant ridging into Arctic otherwise pretty much as expected

Vortex northern Russia with extension south towards the UK and another to the N. Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex

South of this a strong westerly upper flow exits the eastern seaboard, a baroclinic area  where much of cyclogenisis takes place that eventually impacts the UK

Which continues uninterrupted to the UK with no longer any European ridge around to divert it. All of which indicates continuing unsettled with temps around average

This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

 

 

Edited November 19, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

And here comes the SSW imprint on the rest of winter.

[Catacol]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And here comes the SSW imprint on the rest of winter.

That’s a very strong GH positive anomaly. The persistence of heights in this area has been noted today. Many on here would be pretty happy at this shape for January...snowpers cross fingers!

[weatherguy]

Nothing much of interest for us coldies in the short term, the only thing on offer may be a transient northerly in the next 2 weeks as the atlantic begins to assert its influence into FI, such as the 336h GFS shown below.

In my opinion, it seems like it's a case of watching how the stratospheric warming pans out (whether or not it will become a technical SSW is anyone's guess at this range!), and hope it delivers something big from mid-December onwards! 

Edited November 19, 2019 by weatherguy

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS doesn't have any significant ridging into Arctic otherwise pretty much as expected

Vortex northern Russia with extension south towards the UK and another to the N. Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex

South of this a strong westerly upper flow exits the eastern seaboard, a baroclinic area  where much of cyclogenisis takes place that eventually impacts the UK

Hmmm . I note the NH connection of low anomolys 

I also note the upper ridge around Greenland, cut off by the westerly flow beneath ....I would muse that it’s simply a consequence of the Canadian vortex extension but then the gefs also have it .....finally, I note the euro high anomoly .......

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Hmmm . I note the NH connection of low anomolys 

I also note the upper ridge around Greenland, cut off by the westerly flow beneath ....I would muse that it’s simply a consequence of the Canadian vortex extension but then the gefs also have it .....finally, I note the euro high anomoly .......

The Euro high anomaly is quite a way east and accompanied by slight ridging, adjacent to the vortex, which results in  the squeeze and the strong mid level flow

Edited November 19, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

I would suggest based on the 240 eps mean that a significant cluster must go on to show a decent Northerly but on the ext mean knocker posted it looks like most members cut off the flow before it gets down the whole country, London graph will tell for sure.

Edited November 19, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would suggest based on the 240 eps mean that a significant cluster must go on to show a decent Northerly but on the ext mean knocker posted it looks like most members cut off the flow before it gets down the whole country, London graph will tell for sure.

You should not attempt to deduce too much detail from the mean anomaly charts imo. They are merely indicating the framework within which the det runs will operate and sort the detail. On the mean chart above the indications are that systems will track east and obviously if they cross the UK transient northerlies are likely. It is also dangerous to just select one day, and that includes the clusters, many days down the road,  in a mobile pattern. But that is just my opinion of course.

Edited November 19, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

You should not attempt to deduce too much detail from the mean anomaly charts imo. They are merely indicating the framework with which the det runs will operate and sort the detail. On the mean chart above the indications are that systems will track east and obviously if they cross the UK transient northerlies are likely.

True, but does look like the ridge collapses too quick in the extended for potent N'lies on many members but as you say topplers very possible.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True, but does look like the ridge collapses too quick in the extended for potent N'lies on many members but as you say topplers very possible.

 Whoaa I never said anything about topplers. I was suggesting that if a low tracks east across the UK at some point northerlies will kick in.This is probably inevitable in a fluid unsettled pattern with the jet stream running south

Edited November 19, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

@knocker  I actually don't like the clusters the way they come out, you cannot tell all that much sometimes, instead of having one representative on a D13 or whatever chart, i think it should be the mean of each cluster if you get me, because as they are they are effectively trying decipher too much detail at a given timeframe, also shoud perhaps be a range of days on each cluster as well.

 

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@knocker  I actually don't like the clusters the way they come out, you cannot tell all that much sometimes, instead of having one representative on a D13 or whatever chart, i think it should be the mean of each cluster if you get me, because as they are they are effectively trying decipher too much detail at a given timeframe, also shoud perhaps be a range of days on each cluster as well.

 

My personal opinion is great care is needed in interpreting them, particularly given the map projection But hey that's just my opinion

Edited November 19, 2019 by knocker

[damianslaw]

Models in strong agreement rest of November will be unsettled, with a more mobile atlantic flow than has been the case over recent weeks, as we see strong heights to the east ebb away, allowing the atlantic trough to move eastwards.

Also, a southerly tracking jet in the main looks to be maintained, temperatures a bit above average, trending nearer average possibly by months end, as we see more of a polar maritime flow.

There is a suggestion a northerly could develop by end of the month, very plausible, in such a pattern - all quite normal really, however, I suspect it would be a transient affair with only weak ridge development moving in, followed by further low pressure.

Key forcing will be the position of the PV, signs are it wants to settle towards N Siberia,and heights developing near Greenland.

Signs also azores high might ridge into SW Europe, but probably kicked into touch by the forcings over the atlantic as the trough is squeezed into a narrow path further south than usual.

In more mobile patterns, expect lots of scatter in the medium term from the models, and changes from day to day.

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

It's looking awfully wet for a time early next week..

No doubt that would be wild and breezy as well.

Autumn's going out with a bit of a bang - in some ways I like it that way.. always seems 'right' for a season to finish on a seasonable note.. which in Autumn is rain and wind!

Of course though - I do hope the levels of precipitation aren't anywhere near as bad as they were during the flooding that many areas experienced of late.

Edited November 19, 2019 by StretfordEnd1996

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

It's looking awfully wet for a time early next week..

No doubt that would be wild and breezy as well.

Autumn's going out with a bit of a bang - in some ways I like it that way.. always seems 'right' for a season to finish on a seasonable note.. which in Autumn is rain and wind!

Whilst we've had the rain this autumn, we haven't had much wind / gales to speak of - quite unusual to have a wet yet preety calm autumn at the same time.

[Catacol]

Clusters out to 4th Dec now, and a better picture than a couple of days ago. Note the signal still for higher than average heights over Greenland with jet running south. Lots of rain in these scenarios - but at this early stage of winter these are not catastrophic patterns for those hoping for a switch to something less wet in time.

Note too that the clusters I posted a couple of days ago for the start of December held a strong +NAO flavour. Not so obvious now - flow is still west to east but with anomalies working perhaps to try and move things on to something else...

 

These will continue to flip flop but as they stand they are an improvement on what came before - assuming average westerly flow is not what you are hoping to see. 

Edited November 19, 2019 by Catacol

[StretfordEnd1996]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Whilst we've had the rain this autumn, we haven't had much wind / gales to speak of - quite unusual to have a wet yet preety calm autumn at the same time.

That's a fair point - there hasn't seemed to be that level of a constant Atlantic depression deluge (coupled with named storms) that we so often see during Autumn.

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

I think I may open my advent calendar in shorts and a t-shirt in the garden if this were to come off. 

GFS is telling me to drown my sorrows with a good nights sleep. xD

[joggs]

26 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I think I may open my advent calendar in shorts and a t-shirt in the garden if this were to come off. 

GFS is telling me to drown my sorrows with a good nights sleep. xD

Well, I'm glad the high pressure to the far east looks like shifting. Still plenty to be optimistic about if you're of a cold and snowy persuasion.

Historically,zonal patterns have flipped suddenly to blocked patterns. Let's hope if it does,we hit the jackpot.

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I think I may open my advent calendar in shorts and a t-shirt in the garden if this were to come off. 

GFS is telling me to drown my sorrows with a good nights sleep. xD

Beautiful a nice Snowy Nly for Where I'm going then❄❄❄

[feb1991blizzard]

BOOM!   -    Iconic start to the day with a powerhouse Northerly.

[Ali1977]

44 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!   -    Iconic start to the day with a powerhouse Northerly.

Sadly not followed the the GFS Op!!

 

However the UKMO At 144 does seem to follow the Icons route to 144!! Over to the ENS and ECM 

 

Icon at 144

Edited November 20, 2019 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Sadly not followed the the GFS Op!!

However the UKMO At 144 does seem to follow the Icons route to 144!! Over to the ENS and ECM 

 

 

Have to wait for the overnight ens suites before dismissing it completely then.

Edited November 20, 2019 by feb1991blizzard