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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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The salient points of the ext GEFS

A relatively complex vortex with the main lobe northern Russia with troughs extending towards the UK and down to northern Canada east of the ridge

The upshot of the amplification over North America is a strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard across the Atlantic to the UK where it is no longer diverted by the European block which is no more

Portending unsettled with temps around average

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5374400.thumb.png.b78f8434cf0307daa9bf85e920cc550d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5374400.thumb.png.3dc03b69fa81070b02d51fbf5ba77423.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t850_anom_5day-5374400.thumb.png.50176bc0236c1584f10801a3c4c0629f.png

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39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As usual, all the 'excitement' (as far as the GEF 12Z is concerned) lies way past the onset of unreliability...T+240 at best?

I've also watched this Youtube presentation, which suggests that the upcoming SSW is not as-yet supported by the other models: 

Time to rein-in expectations?🤔

the vortex is under some serious stress though its clear to see by the segments flapping all over the northern hemisphere defanatily has a southerly tracking jet compared to recent years well since the deluge of 2014.

and its been nippy already.

some pretty erratic going ons in the world of weather. last couple of years  has been pretty interesting.

but i do agree we have all been here before though.

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ECM1-96.thumb.gif.e18f5ed43f9cc802694a27a47f703b48.gifgem-0-96.thumb.png.d41af917fd1db8ee759bdc1137d48320.png

sorry yes very similar.

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

ECM1-96.thumb.gif.e18f5ed43f9cc802694a27a47f703b48.gifgem-0-96.thumb.png.d41af917fd1db8ee759bdc1137d48320.png

Anything to add to those images, or do people have to guess? 🙂

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8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

ECM1-96.thumb.gif.e18f5ed43f9cc802694a27a47f703b48.gifgem-0-96.thumb.png.d41af917fd1db8ee759bdc1137d48320.png

Similar but slightly better heights around Greenland on GEM.👍

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The GEFS 12z has got me dreaming of a white..early december..please make it so..I mean snow!!!!👍😮🤡🥶😜

10_264_850tmp.thumb.png.52768e10273f890d18779ccc5f8e8aeb.png19_300_850tmp.thumb.png.ade5e04353451fd1828698d6be1ff18e.pngsnow_300_ps_slp.thumb.png.fb6864fa051bdd80afaa59c278fd0a72.png19_312_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.9c34c6a600d77a1b8e93b3e1fd3e4503.png19_312_850tmp.thumb.png.497dabcf0927debc969278ec730849df.png12_336_850tmp.thumb.png.b0dc4f659ec2aa691793d21a0418abb0.png12_336_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.277d622c3787f4c1fbcf8789f06863f7.pngooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.thumb.jpg.69dbc6b3679b46d829ebce527385a822.jpgMake-it-Snow-Star-Trek.thumb.jpg.6bfbaaae10f3bb3b7297764f8a0dac9a.jpg

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Similar but slightly better heights around Greenland on GEM.👍

ECM1-144.thumb.gif.4a2aae8f0b260d937ea5868b22333616.gif

heights are having ago around greenland.

the azores heights are suppressed.

but more interesting is the disrupting of the vortex so jet stream also maintaining a more southerly type location.

pretty unsettled for awhile longer.

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ECH1-168.thumb.gif.0c9a09ca9033c6d6839d4182f49a0270.gif

disruptive block greenland area.

looking good. 

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ECH1-168.GIF?19-0

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before. Even all the purples are over Siberia like in those reanalysis charts

Edited by ArHu3

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

ECH1-168.GIF?19-0

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before

And we know how cold some of those winters where!!!

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Here's an animated Gif of the Ecmwf upper air temperatures for the next 7 days.. 

Starts cold turns milder and then stays mostly mild.. 👇

g80QzlSPdt.thumb.gif.6cea71ddf5278fe19d644b86dbec6f0f.gif

GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 days animated gif below👇 wettest in the west with over 80mm but further east only 10-30mm highlighting the slow progress of the fronts in the next few days to push eastwards giving Western areas rain for longest.. Don't take too literally liable to change slightly in the coming days.. 🙂

jTQeckF6iD.thumb.gif.4d0f280a29a3bb5f641c7de51b0c844f.gif

Edited by jordan smith

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11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

ECH1-168.GIF?19-0

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before. Even all the purples are over Siberia like in those reanalysis charts

Close to something mega their,if that trough had dropped to the South.Some very cold uppers to our North.Looking good in the long term!

Instead we get the wretched Azores High deciding to join the party at the wrong time.Typical as we head into December!

Edited by SLEETY

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The ecm looking unsettled next week as troughs track east across the Atlantic Of course the detail is subject to change

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4683200.thumb.png.bd6ec92b1483c29af5991caec65e315e.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4769600.thumb.png.ac66cc8648e4f371fa312d7c8a4372d8.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-4856000.thumb.png.6ab759fe6b854001dae4785e5e14a4cc.png

120.thumb.png.cd065d9bbe27c4103037b1d476efd604.png144.thumb.png.d1f5073f6fe585ed4ffd5ac7d117afb5.png168.thumb.png.ad714cb1df7c59ad3e02f31fae0396ea.png192.thumb.png.3ed69c3fce0b2be6853ab550b1a94a10.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-4920800.thumb.png.459994cddbaa64ffdf85ec35f46e8c8c.png

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9 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

ECH1-168.GIF?19-0

 

this looks more like an NCEP reanalysis from the 19th century than actual model output. I've never seen so few purples and so few isobars lines over the arctic in winter before. Even all the purples are over Siberia like in those reanalysis charts

Splitting hairs but it’s still Autumn. I also can’t get out my head what another member said the other day..is climate change / lower arctic ice levels causing a delay in the formation of the PV...would these charts have been common place in October in the past and now we are seeing them end of November?

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ECM 12z op is utterly garbage.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 12z op is utterly garbage.

Looked interesting early on then goes pete tong.👎

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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Splitting hairs but it’s still Autumn. I also can’t get out my head what another member said the other day..is climate change / lower arctic ice levels causing a delay in the formation of the PV...would these charts have been common place in October in the past and now we are seeing them end of November?

And it does make you wonder if this is indeed one of the key facts in play here, that the usual growth of ice and the cooling trend are behind the mark this year. Maybe, just maybe life returns to normal in a few weeks and all the possibilities just fizzle. Maybe..

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8 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Here's an animated Gif of the Ecmwf upper air temperatures for the next 7 days.. 

Starts cold turns milder and then stays mostly mild.. 👇

g80QzlSPdt.thumb.gif.6cea71ddf5278fe19d644b86dbec6f0f.gif

GFS rainfall accumulation for the next 10 days animated gif below👇 wettest in the west with over 80mm but further east only 10-30mm highlighting the slow progress of the fronts in the next few days to push eastwards giving Western areas rain for longest.. Don't take too literally liable to change slightly in the coming days.. 🙂

jTQeckF6iD.thumb.gif.4d0f280a29a3bb5f641c7de51b0c844f.gif

It's good to see something back on the more here and now. As you have suggested the rainfall figures look quite large over the west country. I wonder if this will slow in it's transition across the country, bringing some heavy rainfall again across some areas.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM 12z op is utterly garbage.

Not very helpful for those trying to learn!..you could have said it's unsettled with low pressure (s)  in control and temperatures higher than recently, closer to average!👍

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2 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Not very helpful for those trying to learn!..you could have said it's unsettled with low pressure (s)  in control and temperatures higher than recently, closer to average!👍

Yes, it doesn't show a cold Northerly like the last 2 GFS runs or any sign of one after 240.

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12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Splitting hairs but it’s still Autumn. I also can’t get out my head what another member said the other day..is climate change / lower arctic ice levels causing a delay in the formation of the PV...would these charts have been common place in October in the past and now we are seeing them end of November?

Oh I compared with similar dates. I didn't look at the winters following or anything and I highly doubt we'll get any 19th century winter, there just isn't enough directly north/northwest of us like back then but that chart doesn't look like I have I ever seen being modelled

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Unfortunately, if one puts any stock in EC , we are going to have to ride out another unsettled phase.

I have accepted it,what i really do not want to see is HP getting comfortable across Southern Europe and an intensifying vortex building to our N/NW.with zonal winds forecast to moderate there is a chance we could see some Atlantic amplification down the line.That is an aspiration at present though.

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25 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

It's good to see something back on the more here and now. As you have suggested the rainfall figures look quite large over the west country. I wonder if this will slow in it's transition across the country, bringing some heavy rainfall again across some areas.

I think its possible that slow moving fronts could cause similar problems to what we've experienced so far this autumn but the signs are atm that apart from and after the transition to more unsettled conditions at the end of this week where Western areas will get a lot of rainfall in one go the rain bearing fronts that do cross the UK next week are shown to push through fairly swiftly.. I think its the succession of perhaps smaller amounts of rainfall that will be of note regarding the exacerbation of any flooding. 👍

Edited by jordan smith

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The ecm NH 5-10 profile. Pretty much as expected

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5028800.thumb.png.89b8da5b8345eb3eb6c26fa1b7319765.png

 

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I will leave it to the rest of you to decide whether the ECM is garbage or the GFS is more hopeful, what I will say is.... The models currently are all over the place.... Perhaps something is a brewing..... I have a funny feeling in me water!!! Granted.... It could be me prostate, but I'm not so sure!! 😉 Some interest in the GFS ensembles!! 

gens-1-0-312.png

gens-1-1-300.png

gens-3-0-312.png

gens-3-1-324.png

gens-8-0-372.png

gens-10-0-276.png

gens-10-1-276.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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