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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Tbh folks I think so far we have done OK so early on in proceedings. A few places witnessed some snow, last night brought lows of - 8C in parts of Scotland.. A very Frosty start here in the West Midlands.... Lovely crisp air... How I love it. Yes, things becoming less cold later this week and a tad unsettled... For how long is the question!! The extended ECM mean shows temps around 1.5C towards months end, and around - 0.6c for Glasgow. Nothing out of the ordinary there then.... The SLP for the South, tends to be hinting at some rises towards early December... 1011mb looks a decent starting point, so I'm a little more confident of some drier conditions devoloping at this stage!! That for one, is a start. 

Lows of -9.9C - Braemar.

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8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Lows of -9.9C - Braemar.

Broadly speaking Scotland, certainly Northern parts, have experienced the kind of November i would have enjoyed.Certainly the last week or so at any rate.

Looks to me like the tables will turn eventually with Scotland and the north bearing the brunt of the projected +NAO phase with the SE of England having more influence from the Euro heights.

Of course this has little bearing on Winter, coldies like me are hoping the +NAO pattern does not endure too long. 🙂

 

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Broadly speaking Scotland, certainly Northern parts, have experienced the kind of November i would have enjoyed.Certainly the last week or so at any rate.

Looks to me like the tables will turn eventually with Scotland and the north bearing the brunt of the projected +NAO phase with the SE of England having more influence from the Euro heights.

Of course this has little bearing on Winter, coldies like me are hoping the +NAO pattern does not endure too long. 🙂

 

A cursory glance at the charts indicates a significant change from the cold weather Scotland is experiencing. Turning wetter and milder, possibly to higher elevations. Potential impact to the start of the Scottish ski season? Of course it could all change quickly.

Edited by Sceptical

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The GEFS 06Z ensembles show a rapid descent into chaos after about Day 9, with the operational and control runs eventually moving in opposite directions, temperature-wise:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png    prcpSuffolk.png

Lots of potential in 'imagination space'?:oldgrin:

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I was out and about this morning making sure Sidney wasn't too stressed after the latest EC weeklies update and the rain hadn't arrived by the time of the Camborne sounding but this indicates multiple cloud layers that I can very.starting with Cs downwards A cloud observers nightmare

2019111912.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.81b26022d69a9eb34f4ff38dc62a187c.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.3be5ebcb069fc071ed383d8c729244a3.gifmeteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.fec985ecad28fee7fe8ee6597eea09b1.jpg

 

 

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ECM moving towards ridging close to Greenland for the start of December, but rising heights across Europe might prevent cold getting down to the UK - may well squeeze the Atlantic directly through the UK and a return to long wet periods

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111800_324.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111812_312.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019111900_300.

 

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There is a lot going on at the end of the week with further upper troughs tracking south east and merging with the main trough close to the UK. It led to this surface analysis midday Friday according to this morning's fax

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4359200.thumb.png.59289a44e5eff4ec03101ee1d8c1dc2a.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-4424000.thumb.png.d39ec048d6cc5dc257d6779794d7c339.pngPPVL89.thumb.gif.c57dc09c2891db0cd2590215eb42c24a.gif

The gfs take on this evening

72.thumb.png.9d11ac91d2afc2277cd09955c3f211ec.png84.thumb.png.d4a4f0b43ed9ca2fb19dc8d19da551d7.png96.thumb.png.929e05f54ad31df37d92e5911dddd095.png

Edited by knocker

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GFS with a new trend at 192 or too much gin? 

D92C42A5-75DE-47CB-B323-53B730DD835E.png

B6185D93-A9B7-4E46-B115-5723C434F054.png
 

I guess it’s pretty similar in the grand scheme of things

Edited by Ali1977

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Anyone else having issues seeing t850s on Meteociel? 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS with a new trend at 192 or too much gin? 

D92C42A5-75DE-47CB-B323-53B730DD835E.png

B6185D93-A9B7-4E46-B115-5723C434F054.png
 

 

GFS is better,but quite different to UKMO at 144 in that UKMO looks flat as a pancake.GFS has a wee bit of amplification in the western Atlantic.

EC will be interesting..

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Anyone else having issues seeing t850s on Meteociel? 

It’s been the same all day 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Gfs has a very messy synoptic pattern towards day 10 with the jet stream more wavy instead of a straight west to east look.. interesting height rises to note close to Greenland too.. The Azores high a tad further southeast but not far from it's normal position at this point. 

Thursday 28th..

1804972721_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_216(7).thumb.jpg.21ae8b64160002749ab82a09566d6eb6.jpg

892144344_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(2).thumb.jpg.9b6b13f2bfc7608ec829c14794b26bf7.jpg

Friday 29th midnight and 6am..

515394501_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_228(2).thumb.jpg.92ff3ea41bd208e5759295dfce48fd57.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_228.thumb.jpg.d3fa1aa9b6a1d07255df3e8f9454577a.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_234 (1).jpg

495705269_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_234(3).thumb.jpg.1068a76b29d84efa22614438d52c1064.jpg

GFS ensembles are all over the place during the latter stages of the run. :unknw:

254504540_ens_image(41).thumb.png.10adeeef4fcb1007b4ed2aef71869d87.png

Gem ensembles more unsettled and upper air temperatures again a wide range although perhaps they are generally less cold than the Gfs

1660192183_ens_image(42).thumb.png.c0ddaff2d4210f343ca58798873bcb9b.png

Edited by jordan smith

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16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 12z pretty good - no sign of any vortex lobes setting up towards Greenland - if anything quite the contrary...

82828E4B-5015-4282-897B-6C548432CCC4.thumb.jpeg.c326e9dcff73fae8c6448016eb0d32e4.jpeg

The GFS mini maps for day 16 showing more & more sub -10M/S zonal winds which is superb to open out December...

gfsnh-0-312.png?12

Only a matter of time

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😍

AD5BD11B-7CC2-415C-932A-8DB34622B84F.png

48E66170-E9D8-4E67-A79C-0134680C98BD.png

36AC79C2-3F61-41A1-8EF8-749FB37D48E8.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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Very heavy snow moving down the spine of the country.

image.thumb.png.ec775dfcc0fcedbae637f4722448585e.png

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25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 12z pretty good - no sign of any vortex lobes setting up towards Greenland - if anything quite the contrary...

82828E4B-5015-4282-897B-6C548432CCC4.thumb.jpeg.c326e9dcff73fae8c6448016eb0d32e4.jpeg

The GFS mini maps for day 16 showing more & more sub -10M/S zonal winds which is superb to open out December...

That's some pressure over Greenland!

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JFF The GFS 12z FI showing upstream wave activity sending warmth to mid and high latitudes and possibly another cold spell for US northern states:

gfsnh-13-324.thumb.png.20d9bb34fb74b7b1ca2fdf39a00adb48.pnggfsnh-15-336.thumb.png.fbaa7efd24ad5df0fb37344a946b3a61.png

A much more appealing NH profile with potential for cold spells for the UK...

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7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfsnh-0-312.png?12

Only a matter of time

Is that even possible? - a flabby low, heights to our north-west ( as per Steve's comments ) to what appears to be an incredibly angry chunk of Vortex... ? serious question.. it does appear to be a rather dramatic change in 3 days.

 

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17 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is that even possible? - a flabby low, heights to our north-west ( as per Steve's comments ) to what appears to be an incredibly angry chunk of Vortex... ? serious question.. it does appear to be a rather dramatic change in 3 days.

 

The tPV or Polar Lows are very mobile due to the lack of the usual trop PV pattern. So yes, it can and will change relatively quickly, as long as the tPV remains fluid. In fact that is possibly the most likely ongoing theme till if and when the tPV recovers. No concerted sign of this, yet!

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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The tPV or Polar Lows are very mobile due to the lack of the usual trop PV pattern. So yes, it can and will change relatively quickly, as long as the tPV remains fluid. In fact that is possibly the most likely ongoing theme till if and when the tPV recovers. No concerted sign of this, yet!

later gefs runs rather worrying for rainfall amounts,

886939070_Inkedgens-0-1-384(4)_LI.thumb.jpg.1a959995c0031c844edb15f13b899749.jpg

but plenty to keep us all interested loads going on.

ecm was bit flat this morning,

but wondering if this evenings ecm will show the same shallow wedge of heights into southern greenland as the later gem frames show.

because that could help flip the nao negative..

Inkedgem-0-228_LI.thumb.jpg.36e273a38cb4b0daa7e92dcb7a220057.jpg

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7607643_gem-0-240(3).thumb.png.d4d32458c403b2fed7c4a02906a5139d.png

short term pain long term gain.

gem would lead onto better things for december if that were to come off.

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