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Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Now watch that extended LP dumbell and cut off the northerly!:shok::help:

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    Now watch that extended LP dumbell and cut off the northerly!:shok::help:

    h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

    Doubt it’ll happen but it only needs the slightest of tweak and it would be v cold 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Have a good day everyone!

    ...and you.

    The CET is currently -0.7c below average and I expect that to remain below average, but move towards 0c. Not really cold, cool yes, but I suppose compared with recent November's feeling colder. I was hoping and expecting more cold with the tPV neutral with wedges and Pacific ridges, so IMO the outcome for November was disappointing with regard to potential cold. 

    Let us just hope that December does not herald the establishment of a strong tPV as then we will be waiting upon higher help to avoid another false dawn of a start to Winter. JFF (or not) the 06z is one of the FI clusters seen in the 0z GEFS, a flat NH profile with the tPV regrouping:

    285162445_gfsnh-0-384(7).thumb.png.3291e28e8bcf9400d878a36199bf25f2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    Right come on .who's given the 06z some viagra. Own up.;)

    19112906_1806.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    This is the mean ENS at 192, we may have a developing shout at a fairly cold day or 2 beyond this - one to keep an eye on 

    F0A997D4-D75C-4121-8AE6-6D7D69C53775.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
  • Location: West Aberdeenshire
    6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    shorterm slight warm up.

    but look north northwest northeast absolutely bottled up cold only a matter of time.

    1951112060_gfs-1-384(1).thumb.png.082b28990fafccd35c43e6daac291018.png

    Only a matter of time before the charts show something completely different....

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    gefs is close but thats a large chunk of a disrupted vortex.

    question mark area is my only worry.

    but there is space for greenland for heights.

    Inkedgens-0-1-276_LI.thumb.jpg.d6795efdaba57404f7843b339acc3b63.jpg 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    maybe cold from the eastern flank.

    but regardless that be a chilly pattern greenland does not look so good on this run.

    but lows still diving south which has been common feature so far.

    only a matter of time.

    unless a 2014 rerun on the cards.

    355234464_gens-0-1-384(2).thumb.png.7a34c7cf17d846769ae1cb0226f20615.png

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    The winner for the most bonkers winter gfs ensemble member of all time??

    Screenshot_20191118-120710_Samsung Internet.jpg

    5_354_850tmp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Merry Advent?

    Finally.

    GFS has some sort of a welcome seasonal pattern change albeit T+306

    h500slp.thumb.png.c1ace3bb8349282df2276c76cd462300.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Seems like we will be in a period of more Atlantic dominated weather although the process will be quite a slow one. 

    No doubt the PV across the pole will gain significant strength again but this is not a bad thing because if a split of that PV does occur, colder denser air will make its way down to lower latitudes but at this moment in time, no signs of that occurring so it's a waiting game at the moment until some signs of a more amplified pattern occurs again. 

    Of course it's only mid November let's not forget and any output after 144 or so hours is subject to change. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: North Hampshire/Surrey

    Just want to say how much your updates are appreciated @jordan smith. Really helpful for those of us still learning: nice model image selections with easy to understand interpretations. Cheers! ???

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Seems like we will be in a period of more Atlantic dominated weather although the process will be quite a slow one. 

    No doubt the PV across the pole will gain significant strength again but this is not a bad thing because if a split of that PV does occur, colder denser air will make its way down to lower latitudes but at this moment in time, no signs of that occurring so it's a waiting game at the moment until some signs of a more amplified pattern occurs again. 

    Of course it's only mid November let's not forget and any output after 144 or so hours is subject to change. 

    Unless it shows a blinding easterly at ten days on the EC!!!??

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    3 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Great start to the 12z ICON primed and ready for take off..:cold-emoji:

    iconnh-0-180.png

    There’s been hints of cold around day 10, it’ll be nice for an upgrade in that to revigorant this forum. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    10 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Great start to the 12z ICON primed and ready for take off..:cold-emoji:

    iconnh-0-180.png

    Tbh the area of high pressure is slightly isolated with the low pressure off the ESB ready to pounce.that said you never know!!?

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Vortex 

    11 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Great start to the 12z ICON primed and ready for take off..:cold-emoji:

    iconnh-0-180.png

    Looks all little flabby in our neck of the woods! - not sure really what to make of it - on the flipside there is robust modeling for the Vortex to over northern euroasia ?

     

     

    Edited by TSNWK
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
    2 hours ago, Mizzle said:

    Just want to say how much your updates are appreciated @jordan smith. Really helpful for those of us still learning: nice model image selections with easy to understand interpretations. Cheers! ???

    What a really lovely thing to hear I'm pleased you and others enjoy them. Hope you like the animation's too. :oldsmile:

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    4 hours ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    maybe cold from the eastern flank.

    but regardless that be a chilly pattern greenland does not look so good on this run.

    but lows still diving south which has been common feature so far.

    only a matter of time.

    unless a 2014 rerun on the cards.

    355234464_gens-0-1-384(2).thumb.png.7a34c7cf17d846769ae1cb0226f20615.png

    Perfect win-win for me the winds straight from Latvia at the exact time I'll be leaving the lovely winter wonderland of Riga to come back to the UK which could be wintry too can I order this? 

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Day 10 and we are about to have another cold shot shown , this could be pretty good too.

    7B391566-154E-42FB-97EB-710135D72607.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    12zgfs however you look at it is late autumn unsettled weather.slightly below average temps at times but nothing extreme.maybe good for high ground in the north esp Scotland.

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